🗳️ Reporting UK Election Results & Collating Polling Data | A Project By @mattftommo | In Partnership with @NavigatePol
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📊 | Nowcast, By-Election Results, Opinion Polling & More | electionmaps.uk
🗺️ | Purchase Election Posters Here | electionmapsuk.etsy.com
🌹 | Largest Labour Lead (9%) with ANY pollster since September 2024, and just 1% short of lead at the 2024 General Election.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 31% (+3)
RFM: 22% (-1)
CON: 21% (+2)
LDM: 8% (=)
GRN: 8% (=)
RES: 5% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @BMGResearch, 28-29 Oct.
Changes w/ 23-24 Sep.
In this week's @NavigatePol roundup, I looked into whether how [we think] our parents vote affects our own...
🌹 Labour parents? 45% voted Labour in 2024 (1.3x average)
🌳 Tory parents? 42% voted Conservative (1.7x)
🔶 Lib Dem parents? 27% voted Lib Dem (2.1x)
🤷 Mixed household? Much more reflective of the country
Upbringing still matters, even when controlling for other factors...
Our latest Weekly Roundup with @electionmapsuk is out:
Kicking the Can | Gilt Trip | Pickle Down Economics
John Healey stepped into the spotlight this week, delivering his first Budget with promises of “breathing space” for households and businesses – and sending the Westminster commentariat into overdrive. The markets barely stirred, the opposition rather less so: Kemi Badenoch reduced the Government’s economic ambitions to “4p off gherkins”, whilst Ed Davey prescribed his usual remedy of closer ties with Europe. Still, in the Treasury, a Budget that leaves the bond markets reaching for neither champagne nor smelling salts probably counts as a win.
navigatepolitics.uk
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 31% (+3)
RFM: 22% (-1)
CON: 21% (+2)
LDM: 8% (=)
GRN: 8% (=)
RES: 5% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @BMGResearch, 28-29 Oct.
Changes w/ 23-24 Sep.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 28% (+2)
CON: 21% (=)
RFM: 20% (=)
GRN: 11% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 28-29 Oct.
Changes w/ 21 Oct.
Aggregate Result of the 149 Council By-Elections Since the 2026 Local Elections:
CON: 31 (-1) | 19% (-1)
RFM: 28 (+6) | 22% (+10)
LAB: 27 (-3) | 20% (-3)
LDM: 24 (+4) | 14% (+1)
GRN: 16 (+3) | 14% (-2)
PLC: 11 (=) | 3% (+1)
Ind: 5 (-8) | 4% (-3)
SNP: 5 (+2) | 3% (-2)
Loc: 2 (-2) | 1% (-1)
RES: 0 (-) | 1% (+1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e…
Labour majority of 2 votes (0.09%) over Reform UK.
Raw Vote: LAB 874, RFM 872, CON 317, RES 159, GRN 79.
St James (Dudley) Council By-Election Result:
🌹 LAB: 38.0% (+16.2)
➡️ RFM: 37.9% (-11.0)
🌳 CON: 13.8% (-0.1)
◼️ RES: 6.9% (New)
🌍 GRN: 3.4% (-7.2)
No LDM (-3.9) or TUSC (-0.9) as previous.
Labour GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.
Southwell (Nottinghamshire) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 45.3% (+7.8)
➡️ RFM: 26.0% (+1.8)
🌹 LAB: 14.5% (+1.1)
🔶 LDM: 12.2% (-7.5)
🌍 GRN: 2.0% (-3.2)
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2025.
Mid Argyll (Argyll & Bute) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
🎗️ SNP: 46.1% (+15.0)
🔶 LDM: 17.4% (+14.1)
🌳 CON: 12.9% (+1.3)
➡️ RFM: 8.5% (New)
◼️ RES: 7.0% (New)
💠 IFS: 5.3% (+2.9)
🙋 Ind: 2.8% (New)
No Inds (-35.9, -4.7, -4.4, -1.7) or LAB (-4.9) as previous.
SNP 'Gain' from Independent - Elected Stage 5.
Changes w/ 2022.
Dover Beck (Newark & Sherwood) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 41.7% (-29.5)
➡️ RFM: 33.5% (New)
🌹 LAB: 15.1% (-13.7)
🔶 LDM: 7.4% (New)
🌍 GRN: 2.2% (New)
Conservative HOLD.
Changes 2023.
Beechwood & Heath (Halton) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 35.3% (-4.2)
🔶 LDM: 26.3% (-18.3)
🌹 LAB: 25.2% (New)
◼️ RES: 6.3% (New)
🙋 Ind: 4.2% (New)
🌳 CON: 2.6% (New)
No GRN (-13.2) or LBT (-2.6) as previous.
Reform UK GAIN from Liberal Democrats.
Changes w/ 2026.
Worksop East (Bassetlaw) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 45.9% (New)
🌹 LAB: 37.1% (-34.4)
◼️ RES: 7.0% (New)
🌳 CON: 6.8% (-21.7)
🌍 GRN: 3.2% (New)
Reform UK GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
electionmapsuk retweeted
It's a big few days for international elections, but don't forget this week's 6 council by-elections:
🙋 Mid Argyll (Argyll & Bute)
🌹 Worksop East (Bassetlaw)
➡️ St James (Dudley)
🔶 Beechwood & Heath (Halton)
🌳 Dover Beck (Newark & Sherwood)
🌳 Southwell (Nottinghamshire)
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 32% (+2)
RFM: 25% (+1)
CON: 21% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
LDM: 7% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 23-26 Oct.
Changes w/ 16-19 Oct.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 28% (=)
CON: 24% (+1)
RFM: 23% (+1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
RES: 5% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @Moreincommon_, 23-26 Oct.
Changes w/ 16-19 Oct.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 27% (=)
CON: 22% (-1)
RFM: 20% (-2)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 10% (=)
RES: 4% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Oct.
Changes w/ 18-19 Oct.
Holyrood Voting Intention:
Constituency:
SNP: 34% (-4)
LAB: 18% (-1)
RFM: 13% (-3)
CON: 12% (=)
LDM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (+5)
Regional List:
SNP: 28% (+1)
LAB: 17% (+1)
GRN: 15% (+1)
CON: 13% (+1)
RFM: 13% (-4)
LDM: 9% (=)
Via @NorstatGroup, 20-23 Oct.
Changes w/ May 2026.
It's a big few days for international elections, but don't forget this week's 6 council by-elections:
🙋 Mid Argyll (Argyll & Bute)
🌹 Worksop East (Bassetlaw)
➡️ St James (Dudley)
🔶 Beechwood & Heath (Halton)
🌳 Dover Beck (Newark & Sherwood)
🌳 Southwell (Nottinghamshire)
General Election Nowcast - 25/10/26:
LAB: 327 (-84) | 28.3% (Maj. of 4)
CON: 125 (+4) | 21.1%
LDM: 66 (-6) | 9.3%
RFM: 52 (+47) | 21.9%
SNP: 38 (+29) | 2.7%
PLC: 8 (+4) | 1.0%
GRN: 7 (+3) | 8.9%
RES: 1 (+1) | 3.7%
Oth: 7 (+2) | 2.9%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
