Finimize

🎙️ New Podcast Episode: Anthropic’s IPO Filing Should Make Investors Nervous Every week, Finimize analyst Russell Burns and I sit down for a casual chat about all things markets – from the biggest recent headlines and under-the-radar trends to what we’re watching in the week ahead. In this week’s episode, we dig into Anthropic’s S-1 filing, exploring everything from its growing dependence on a handful of major cloud customers to some eye-opening revelations about how its AI models behave. We also discuss SpaceX’s emerging edge in the AI infrastructure race, why smaller data-center players are feeling the squeeze, and how this week’s earnings reports and interest rate decisions could shape the markets. For the full conversation, check out the latest episode of Market Open on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also watch the episode on YouTube. 🎧 Apple: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas… 🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4fz… 📺 YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=a5yPWqAw… #Anthropic #SpaceX $SPCX $CRWV

Anthropic has committed to spending a whopping $800 billion-plus on computing infrastructure. That eye-watering figure, revealed in the AI startup’s IPO filing, shows just how pricey the race for AI dominance has become. Anthropic's signed deals stretch all the way to 2045, including $161 billion with Broadcom, $150 billion for more Google chips, and $120.5 billion with SpaceXAI. To be fair, Anthropic has some serious momentum behind it. Revenue rocketed from $4.6 billion last year to over $33 billion in the first nine months of 2026. And the firm's getting more bang for its buck: computing costs have fallen from over $2.50 for every dollar of revenue in early 2025 to less than 50 cents by mid-2026. It even managed to turn a $1 billion quarterly operating profit. But it's not all sunshine and rainbows. Growth is slowing, while an unusual governance structure means shareholders will have little say, with the founders and a special trust keeping a firm grip on control. There's another catch, too. In the first half of 2026, nearly half of Anthropic's customer sales came through just three tech giants' cloud marketplaces. Trouble is, some of those same companies are developing rival AI models, meaning they could eventually ditch Claude and leave a sizeable hole in Anthropic's sales… #Anthropic #AI $GOOGL $AMZN $AVGO $MSFT $AMD

🔍 The Focus This Week: Earnings And Interest Rates And Economic Data, Oh My This week is a busy one. We’ve got interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, and the eurozone. Then there’s last quarter’s economic growth figures from the US and the eurozone. And to top it all off, there’s the usual flood of third-quarter earnings reports, including from tech heavyweights Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, along with memory chip darling SK Hynix. First up, central banks. None of the three is expected to raise interest rates this week, so barring any last-minute plot twists, investors shouldn’t expect much drama. Instead, traders are betting that all three will deliver a hike at their next meetings in December. On to economic growth. The eurozone economy flatlined in the first quarter before expanding by 0.6% in the second. But economists aren’t expecting any meaningful pick up in the third. After all, the bloc is still grappling with higher energy prices, cost-cutting and layoffs at major carmakers, and historically low water levels caused by prolonged droughts that continue to disrupt key shipping routes. And looking ahead, recent protests and riots in France and elsewhere could put further pressure on growth for the rest of the year. The US economy, meanwhile, grew by around 0.6% in each of the first two quarters of the year. And the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow – a handy model that provides real-time growth estimates based on the latest data – suggests growth accelerated to 0.9% in the third quarter. That resilience is thanks to the US economy’s lower reliance on imported energy, strong consumer spending, and a massive AI-driven tech boom. And that brings us neatly on to tech. The latest results from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon should offer some clues about whether the AI infrastructure spending boom still has legs. The three tech giants are among the world’s biggest hyperscalers, building the computing muscle behind the AI boom. A serious case of FOMO has pushed them and other data center developers to build as much as they can, as fast as they can. But their updates come at a tricky time. See, the investors footing the bill for all those data centers are starting to get cold feet. They’re worried that revenue from AI tools and services won’t be enough to justify the trillions being poured into the buildout. And those fears aren’t coming out of nowhere: research firm Gartner recently estimated that data center owners could face a whopping $6 trillion revenue shortfall by 2032 relative to their infrastructure investment. So if the hyperscalers announce even bigger investment plans without delivering AI revenue growth that impresses investors, those concerns will only deepen. But if they show stronger returns on their AI investments while keeping spending in check, traders might feel a little more comfortable hopping back aboard the AI gravy train. Read the full Finimize Weekly Brief – a recap of last week’s highlights and a preview of the key things to watch in the week ahead – here: finimize.substack.com/p/you-… @finimize #AI $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN

Treasuries are quietly emerging as an effective hedge against the AI bubble bursting. Case in point: the below chart shows the relationship between US government bonds and AI-focused stocks has become increasingly negative, reaching levels last seen a year ago. In fact, I've been arguing for weeks that Treasuries could be a pretty good place for investors to hide if the AI boom turns into an AI bust. Here's why. A sharp pullback in AI spending could drag on economic growth, cool inflation, reduce energy demand, and push central banks to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, Big Tech firms might scale back their bond issuance, reducing competition for investors' cash. And as nerves spread through the market, investors could flock to the the market’s traditional safe havens. All of that would be good news for Treasuries. And here's the kicker: unlike during much of the past two decades, government bonds now offer a very decent yield too. In other words, one of the oldest diversifiers in the book could offer investors the best of both worlds: a potential cushion if the AI bubble bursts, and a steady stream of income while they wait. That's a pretty attractive setup... #AI #Bubble #Bonds #Treasuries $IEF $TLT

Anthropic’s computing costs are soaring, but revenues are increasing even faster. According to a draft IPO prospectus seen by the Wall Street Journal, the AI giant pulled in about $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier. Over the same stretch, it spent nearly $9 billion on computing, versus $2.3 billion before. That’s already more than it spent in all of 2025. The headline net loss of $80.7 billion looks scary, but around $72 billion came from accounting charges tied to changes in the value of convertible notes, not from day-to-day operations. The bigger worry is the bill still to come. Anthropic has roughly $450 billion in mostly non-cancelable cloud commitments, and total infrastructure obligations top $600 billion. Cloud partners increasingly see it as a rival, so access to enough capacity isn’t guaranteed. Customer concentration is another risk: two customers made up about a fifth of revenue. Still, with a valuation of up to $2 trillion on the table, investors are betting that growth keeps outrunning the costs. But at that price, there's very little room for error. #Anthropic #AI