German Marshall Fund

🇺🇸🇪🇺 How have small trade deals shaped a big relationship? GMF's @pennynaas and Antonia Wunnerlich examine more than 120 transatlantic "mini trade deals" spanning seven decades to explore how they have sustained transatlantic ties and what lessons they offer for navigating an increasingly complex global economy. 🔗 Read more: bit.ly/4Bzdk4v

🇺🇸 What opportunities do the US midterms present for Europe? “This is an opportunity [for Europe] to solidify bonds with governors and mayors," says GMF’s J.C. Lintzenich. Building strong relationships between businesses is key as the 2028 election approaches, he emphasized. ▶️ Watch the full discussion: bit.ly/4zbLE3T

🇺🇸 Public trust in the military depends on more than strength — it depends on accountability. A new survey conducted by GMF’s @CarrieALee1 and @lorenmvoss in collaboration with @NORCNews finds that Americans overwhelmingly expect the military to follow the law, reject unlawful orders, and operate within constitutional boundaries. The survey also shows that domestic military involvement in elections lacks broad public support and could erode confidence in the institution itself. “Respondents overwhelmingly believe that the US military should follow both domestic and international law,” they found. 🔗 Read the report: bit.ly/4sCgWyG

GMF’s @ClaudMajor joined Ivan Krastev, director of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, author and essayist Robert Menasse, and Deutschlandfunk’s Sabine Adler at the German Historical Museum for a discussion on the “Erosion of the Postwar Order.” As part of a speaker series organized by the Documentation Centre, “German Occupation of Europe in the Second World War,” explored the growing fragility of the international order established after 1945 and asked: What relevance do the lessons of the Second World War still hold, and how can they help us navigate today’s crises? 🔗 Watch full video here: bit.ly/3UYSKKe

Most Americans are against troops being sent to polling sites, a recent GMF and NORC study found. GMF’s @lorenmvoss told @MSNOWNews, “People are worried. I think they’re just worried about law enforcement or federal military in general being more involved in elections, and I’m not confident that they’re particularly looking at military versus ICE versus FBI or they’re just concerned in general about that level of interference.” 🔗 Learn more: bit.ly/4BAKssA

As Hungary unveils a new nuclear energy agreement with the US, GMF’s @VeghZsuzsanna told Bloomberg: “Energy cooperation is probably the most tangible way for the new Hungarian government to ground its relationship with the Trump administration,” following the ousting of Viktor Orbán. 🔗 Read: bloom.bg/4e5th8v

GMF’s @gmfstokes spoke with AFP about how the Trump administration may shift its focus internationally should the GOP lose at home. “Trump has demonstrated they can't stand not to be the centre of attention. If that means he needs to do more on the world stage, positively or negatively, that may be what ends up happening," he said. 🔗 Read: bit.ly/4zW9hgP

🇺🇸🇪🇺 What could the US midterm results mean for Europe? GMF’s @gmfstokes breaks down whether President Trump may take a stronger interest in European elections if he loses at home. ▶️ Watch the full discussion: bit.ly/4zbLE3T

🇺🇸 NEXT WEEK | Unpack the US midterm elections with GMF 📆 Online | November 4 | 9 AM ET / 15:00 CET GMF experts @kristinakausch, @CarrieALee1, @ClaudMajor, @pennynaas, and @ian_lesser will examine the impact of the US midterm election results on US domestic politics, Congress, and American foreign policy priorities, including what these results mean for the transatlantic relationship: bit.ly/4sjq6Qf

🇺🇸 From congressional control to transatlantic cooperation, the 2026 US midterms will have important implications for both sides of the Atlantic. GMF’s J.C. Lintzenich examines what the results could mean for Europe and explains why he expects this election to fall within the normal range of American politics: bit.ly/4BsJO0h

GMF’s @tara_varma told lawmakers in the French Senate last week, “Donald Trump and his team never thought that Ukraine could win this war,” and emphasized that where European security is concerned, Europeans must be at the negotiating table. 🔗 Watch the full testimony: bit.ly/4jU06Jl

GMF's @ClaudMajor joined ARD Tagesthemen to discuss Norway and Finland’s recent initiative regarding the war in Ukraine and what it could achieve. According to Major, the meeting is taking place in a specific context: following the meeting in Oslo and ahead of talks in Abu Dhabi between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. In this sequence of events, she stressed that it is important for Europeans to reiterate their positions and, ultimately, ensure that their ideas are reflected in any potential negotiations. She added that the key question is when the situation will change for Russia to the point where, from Moscow’s perspective, ending the war becomes more appealing than continuing it. Major said: “We have not yet reached that point. That is ultimately what the negotiations and military support are still aimed at.” 🔗 Watch: bit.ly/4i9D6oj

🇷🇸 Preliminary results from Serbia’s October 25 election indicate that Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party have been ousted after 14 years of power in favor of the youth-led Student List. “The Student List's commitment to judicial independence, media freedom, accountability, and the rule of law could give fresh momentum to long-overdue reforms,” writes GMF’s Gordana Delić. Serbia now faces three milestones, says Delić: certification of results and the convening of parliament before the 30-day deadline, government formation before the 90-day deadline, and a smooth running of the upcoming presidential election. 🔗 Read more: bit.ly/4yP1YXo

GMF’s @BonnieGlaser spoke with AJP News Agency about the prospects for a meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un as the US continues to reaffirm its commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea: bit.ly/4srn6kZ

🇮🇹 What can Italy learn from Ukraine’s innovation ecosystem? GMF’s @dankliman and Beniamino Irdi outline how Italy can convert its engineering talent and industrial base into strategic leverage in a new article, originally published in @formichenews: bit.ly/4BA69Jm

🇪🇺🇨🇳 As Europe reassesses its economic relationship with China, key questions are emerging about trade, competitiveness, and economic security. @SCMPNews's @fbermingham joins GMF's #ChinaGlobalPodcast to discuss what the evolving geopolitical relationship between Brussels and Beijing may look like in the years ahead with @BonnieGlaser: bit.ly/4eTZzU4

🇮🇳🇪🇺 What is India’s role in the scaling of global technology and defense? GMF’s 29th India Trilateral Forum took place in Bengaluru, India, focusing on India’s evolving ties with the United States and Europe, convening senior policy makers, strategic thinkers and Bengaluru's dynamic tech & defense ecosystem. We are grateful to our funders, @SweMFA (@SwedeninIndia) for their generous support, and to our partner, @TakshashilaInst.

🚨 HAPPENING NOW | The 2026 Midterms: What's at Stake for the United States and Europe? The implications of the 2026 midterm elections will be felt far beyond Washington, DC. Join GMF for a conversation on the electoral landscape, the key races that could determine control of Congress, and the political dynamics shaping the campaign, featuring GMF’s Bruce Stokes, J.C. Lintzenich, @KStotesbery, and @ian_lesser: bit.ly/4sigQfs

🇷🇸 As Serbia enters a post-Aleksandar Vučić political era, GMF’s Dimitar Keranov told @Parlimag that “he’s obviously not going to disappear,” outlining what to watch for as the country defines its next chapter: bit.ly/4zaThb3

⚡ GMF convened the 26th Mediterranean Strategy Group in Trieste, Italy last week. Leaders from government and business joined analysts and opinion shapers from both shores of the Mediterranean and both sides of the Atlantic to assess how shifting global power is reshaping the region. Four takeaways: 1️⃣ Power is more diffuse, and harder to convert into lasting outcomes. Economic coercion, deterrence by denial, and control of chokepoints are redefining leverage. Those chokepoints range from Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to undersea cables and critical-mineral supply chains. 2️⃣ Mediterranean security is European security. Disruption at sea ripples into food, fuel, and migration. Naval power alone cannot answer it. Diplomacy, regional ownership, and the protection of civilians matter as much. 3️⃣ Connectivity is strategy. The Mediterranean covers less than 1% of the world’s water surface but carries roughly a fifth of global trade. Resilience will come from networks of ports, rail, energy, and digital links rather than a single corridor, provided those links stay commercially viable in normal times. 4️⃣ Technology is redistributing power. Examples include border surveillance, AI embedded in critical infrastructure, and a cable network that depends on a handful of repair ships. Governance and accountability are lagging behind. Thanks to @CSP_live, Fondazione CSF, and @GENERALI for their partnership.