I get you access to the people & ideas that matter so that you can learn to build financial wealth and always stay ahead of the curve | Founder @HiddenForcesPod
New York, USA
Joined February 2009
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🚩🚩🚩Some personal news 🚩🚩🚩
After minutes of building in stealth mode, I'm thrilled to finally announce my latest startup:
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I still remember when Dollar collapse bros were telling us that the Rubble was overtaking the dollar in 2022 because "all the commodities are over there."
Russia has effectively abandoned attempts to replace the dollar with China’s yuan under the pressure of US secondary sanctions, underlining the difficulties facing other nations looking for an alternative global currency bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Something I haven't heard people talk about is how AI can help one re-skill faster and in a way that's much more dynamic than anything we've seen before.
People don't need to wait for a government retraining program to help them reinvent themselves, but they do need tokens.
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
It's been a while since I've laser focused into a video and watched the full thing. This is just fantastic and worth 10 mins of your time if you care about real world use of AI.
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
Yes this fits the pattern better.
The “Chinese spy” story makes it sound like she was a professional covert agent from the start.
But then why would she be posting photos of herself with Jensen on WeChat and making splashy public appearances with him?
She sounds more like a commercial opportunist / “white glove” who played the game very well and got access to one of the most powerful players in the industry.
Later MSS may have wanted to learn about what she was learning about.
Normally I don’t like to speculate like this. But there’s a lot of speculation out there that leans toward one set of narratives that don’t seem to line up. So I thought it was worth at least presenting another set of possibilities.
Why then do immigrant families with lower median incomes have higher fertility rates than native ones? Why do Amish or Hasidic families have significantly higher fertility rates?
Yes, the costs of having a family matter, but values, priorities, and community are more important.
Today, Foreign Affairs publishes a long essay I wrote summarizing some of my work on the global fertility collapse:
foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
It was a fantastic experience (with great editorial support) because the essay pushed me beyond pure economics to discuss issues such as geopolitics and polarization. Unlike some commentators, I don’t think the first-round economic consequences of fertility decline matter most; the second-round political and social ones do.
Yes, social security systems worldwide are in danger, but reality will impose itself sooner or later. The same politicians who swear over their ancestors’ tombs that retirement benefits will remain untouched will cut them (even if they are French). It will not be pretty, and most likely the cuts will come only after a major crisis and after politicians have tried everything else and failed.
Similarly, businesses will adapt to shrinking markets and valuations. Those who claim that capitalism somehow needs constantly expanding markets will be proven wrong. After all, this is the same misguided understanding of markets that has been proven wrong again and again since September 14, 1867, and that nobody really believes unless they have had the misfortune of earning a Ph.D. in a humanities department at an Ivy League school.
The real consequences will come when collapsing populations poison political systems. Look at the recent elections in eastern Germany. That is the future for all of us.
Also, the relative standing of great powers will shift drastically. Given current demographic trends, the U.S. will have a larger population than China by around 2100. The exact date depends on assumptions about net immigration into the U.S., but even with zero net immigration, the U.S. will overtake China by 2128. And Russia’s demographic future is only slightly more optimistic than China’s.
Those who dismiss these changes forget how antiquity ended in Western Europe. The western part of the Roman Empire entered acute demographic decline around 200 CE. By 476 CE, the western empire no longer existed. Despite some revisionist views that have cast a more positive light on late antiquity (and rightly corrected what was sometimes an overly negative assessment of the period), the fact is that England or France in 600 CE had lost most of their classical heritage, and material life had lost at least an order of magnitude in sophistication. The eastern part of the empire, however, weathered its demographic collapse much better and lasted another millennium.
No, I don’t believe we will go extinct (the Amish and Haredi will be enough for the survival of humankind), but the world will be very different in 2200 regardless of how you feel about it. The rational is the real and the real is the rational.
The conventional thinking is that a nuclear armed Iran is destabilizing to regional security. This may have been true before Operation Epic Fury, but the status quo is no longer one of fragile equilibrium.
What political objectives will the Iranians achieve with nuclear weapons that asymmetric warfare has not already delivered? Iran is not a suicide bomber. It’s a country with conventional security needs and regional power ambitions. It has become clear that economic and military pressure will not lead to a change in behavior that accords with Washington’s idyllic fantasies. Deterrence has been established. If anything, committing to obtaining a nuclear strike capability would lead to a regional nuclear arms race, which is not in Iran’s interests. I just don’t buy the argument that the quest for nuclear deterrence is the operational logic at work here anymore.
The only path forward that will bring peace and prosperity to the Greater Middle East is one that treats Iran and its current leadership as powerful regional actors that need to (and can) be negotiated with. The US simply cannot sustain this level of military engagement in the region indefinitely, and the longer it commits resources to it, the more it undermines its broader commitments to maintaining security in other theaters and to investing in and growing its own economy. It also perpetuates a dynamic in which voters feel that the government in Washington is unaccountable, tyrannical, illegitimate, and therefore deserving of being overthrown by any means necessary.
The entropy we’ve exported to the rest of the world has already started to come home, and we can no longer take the stability of our own societies and political systems for granted.
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
Trump has has been weighing three options, war, deal or blockade which means continue with current no war and no deal status quo and hope Iran will cave. He is claiming GCC is asking for this but in reality he has been sitting in war plans he asked for past few weeks, not comfortable with giving the order to attack. despite letting Vance step up diplomatic efforts Trump is not ready to make concessions that would get a deal. That leaves him
With the option favored by in Rubio and Bessent, settle for economic pressure. But this is at best a stop-gap policy. And it is now up to Iran to accept the status quo and it has said (most recently in Supreme Leader’s statement) that it will not. Which means Iran will try to break the blockade which could escalate into more war. The question will be when.
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
It is always a treat to speak with @kofinas on his excellent podcast.
It felt strange to warn against secular inflation and the rise of left-wing populism while shifting into Treasuries and cash at the same time, but I believe this is the correct short-term move
I'm joined by @VincentDeluard to discuss how the latest US elections fit into a global shift toward economic populism, the abandonment of the two percent target, and what an unwinding of foreign capital flows could mean for the USD, rates, and US assets.
hiddenforces.io/podcasts/the…
I'm joined by @VincentDeluard to discuss how the latest US elections fit into a global shift toward economic populism, the abandonment of the two percent target, and what an unwinding of foreign capital flows could mean for the USD, rates, and US assets.
hiddenforces.io/podcasts/the…
In the first hour, @VincentDeluard and I cover:
(1) The historic scale of the Democratic victory in this week's midterm elections and what it reveals about a deeper global drift toward economic populism.
(2) The unwinding of the Mexican peso.
(3) The surprising strength of the Canadian dollar.
(4) The case for a new era of "national capitalism," in which countries like Canada, Japan, and France look to repatriate capital that has been flowing into US equity and bond markets.
In the second hour, we turn to France, where Vincent argues that:
(1) The eurozone is facing part two of a currency and debt crisis that has moved from the periphery to its political core
(2) The only realistic path to preserving the European Monetary Union is a dramatic, Japanese-style devaluation of the euro.
We then broaden the conversation to discuss:
(3) How rising political polarization is reshaping the public's tolerance for inflation
(4) The fragile link between elevated asset prices and US consumer spending
(5) Where Vincent sees opportunity and risk across Treasuries, gold, crypto, and equities as these dynamics play out.
7
923
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
On your 2020 “Battery Day” you said the Cybertruck had 500k to 600k orders and Tesla has stopped counting. In May 2021 “reservations” exceeded one million. On Fox Business May 2022, “We have more orders of the first Cybertrucks than we could possibly fulfill for three years after the start of production.” Total sales? 70,700.
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
Woke up feeling pretty punchy and decided to finally talk about what I think is happening in markets and culture right now, and what is going to happen next.
I'm pretty sure you're not going to read this perspective anywhere else.
Possibly because it's insane.
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
.@MebFaber and I recorded this podcast the day of the market top.
Worth a listen, especially the section on why the "shadow VIX" was already in the high 20s 👇👇
youtube.com/watch?v=EPGm-0XI…
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
We’ll see if this turns out to be true but if so I’d speculate it means Trump said no on Cuba
Marco Rubio expected to step down and launch bid to be next US president ift.tt/aZG8swE
Demetri Kofinas retweeted
1️⃣ Want to understand 2026 and where we're going? Look back to the 1970s.
Specifically, many signals say we're in the year 1974:
✅ The president's party is routed at the midterms.
✅ A war in the Middle East is driving up oil.
✅ A rival is rising on a new industrial stack.
✅ The stock market is propped up by a few big names.
Here's why 2026 is the new 1974, from 10 angles. 🧵
