Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade) header
Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade) profile picture

Trading is a game of chess Veteran Financial Trader | MSc Finance Creator of 'The Perfect Storm Index'™ Crypto • Elliott Wave 40+ years navigating market cycles

Brighton UK
Joined March 2013
Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)Photo by Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader (@mdtrade)
#SOL’s decline has been sharp, but my preferred interpretation is an ABC correction, with an extended wave C reaching approximately 2.618 times wave A near $101. Bullish RSI divergence and the subsequent rebound support a potential low, although confirmation is still needed. I’m watching for five waves higher, then a corrective pullback that holds above the low. That would strengthen the case for further upside. Any staged accumulation on my part would stay within a predefined risk limit. Step by step.
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#BTC’s shaded correction may be nearing completion. Hidden bullish RSI divergence keeps another leg higher in play. I’m leaning bullish here, but confirmation is still needed. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k would strengthen the case. Risk management remains key.
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#BTC’s shaded decline still looks corrective, keeping another leg higher in play. Hidden bullish RSI divergence supports that possibility, but price confirmation is needed. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k would strengthen the case that the correction is complete.
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The market appears to be pricing in containment. @Binance absorbing the loss and restoring withdrawals reduces fears of customer losses and wider contagion. Buying replacement tokens may also provide some support, although that alone cannot explain price movements. The muted reaction doesn’t make the breach insignificant. The remaining questions are whether all assets are fully replenished, withdrawals operate normally, and the technical investigation establishes how the breach happened. #BNB looks vulnerable short term. The overlapping rebound appears corrective following the sharp sell-off, while 4h RSI remains below 50. Another leg lower is my preferred scenario, potentially towards $670. A sustained reclaim of $720–730 would weaken that view.
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$BTC reclaiming the dotted resistance near $79.2k would increase my confidence that the correction is complete and another leg higher is underway. Hidden bullish RSI divergence supports this scenario. Now looking for price confirmation. If correct, higher #BTC should support #Crypto generally
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#ICP: A potential bearish barrier triangle deserves attention, with wave E possibly complete. If this count is correct, a decisive break below support near $1.97 could trigger a sharp downward thrust and fresh lows. A recovery above E near $3.60 would challenge this interpretation. A risk scenario, pending confirmation.
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#BTC’s wave 4 interpretation remains compelling, with price returning to the territory of the previous fourth wave of lesser degree, a useful Elliott Wave guideline. This supports the corrective scenario and a potential fifth wave higher. A reversal and break above recent lower highs would strengthen the case.
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#ICP: One scenario I’m watching is a larger ABC recovery, with wave B potentially nearing completion. The higher price low against a lower RSI low creates hidden bullish divergence, supporting a possible C-wave advance if market confidence stabilises. A bullish reversal and a break above recent lower highs would strengthen this case. Below $1.74, this particular count is invalidated.
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There is still concern that the #Binance hack incident could have marked the beginning of a new market decline, meaning this #SOL advance was corrective as shown with the ABC alternative labelling. The subsequent decline is not yet definitive and so it is another wait and see to differentiate the 12345 impulsive count or ABC corrective
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#XRP has yet another Bullish divergence signal now! The previous 3 signals proved predictive and no reason to expect this one will be different
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How accurate was this #XRP advance chart? The Binance breach is a serious risk to confidence, but its commitment to cover losses and replace affected assets could help stabilise sentiment and add buying pressure. Near-term volatility remains likely. My broader $XRP outlook stays constructive, with price confirmation key.
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Could #Binance’s replacement buying support #crypto prices? Potentially a temporary source of support, especially for less liquid affected tokens but not enough on its own to establish a sustained market rally. Successful reimbursement could also help prices indirectly by restoring confidence. Binance says $5bn was already held in affected tokens, leaving roughly $1.3bn to acquire via market/OTC channels at its latest update. A possible short-term tailwind, but token mix, execution and offsetting selling matter.
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Thankfully, we are seeing limited fallout from the @Binance hack. The Binance incident is serious, but differs from Terra’s collapse: roughly $40bn in destroyed market value versus Binance’s reported $6.3bn in affected assets, with losses pledged to be covered. #BTC’s decline remains consistent with my preferred wave 4 correction, labelled W–X–Y here. A fifth wave higher remains possible, but a reversal needs confirmation.
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The Binance breach highlights a growing concern: AI can make phishing, impersonation and software attacks faster and more effective. AI involvement here remains unconfirmed. But crypto security must keep pace, as attackers don’t need to break a blockchain to compromise its custodians.
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#OIL pushing higher again, adding another potential headwind for #BTC and #Crypto. Sustained strength in energy prices risks keeping #inflation elevated and delaying monetary easing, weighing on risk appetite. One pressure among several, rather than a direct explanation for every crypto dip.
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#BTC’s latest dip remains consistent with my preferred wave 4 count, potentially completing a W–X–Y correction. Hidden bullish RSI divergence and a developing reversal candle support the possibility of wave 5 higher towards $90–92k. A break above the recent lower highs would strengthen that case. The daily candle still needs to close.
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#JASMY: Alongside the bearish scenario posted earlier, this is my preferred alternative: wave B nearing completion before a wave C rally completes a larger ABC correction. A dip below $0.00354 would invalidate the nested bullish count, but could still fit this broader scenario. A bullish reversal is needed to support it.
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#XRP: The three RSI divergences marked have provided useful signals ahead of price reversals. Following the sharp advance on the left, my preferred interpretation is an ABC correction approaching completion, potentially after another dip towards $1.21. A break above $1.39–$1.40 would strengthen the case for a renewed impulsive advance. A bullish setup, with price confirmation still needed.
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#BTC: My preferred count remains a wave 4 correction before wave 5 higher towards $90–92k. One more dip towards $77–78k is possible. Reclaiming $84–85k would strengthen the bullish case. The Fed’s hawkish hold adds a headwind. Structure first, confirmation next.
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One more small leg down for #BTC before the next impulse higher? That remains my preferred scenario, following the red arrow. A potential bullish divergence is developing, but confirmation is still needed.
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