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Who wins the Senate? 🗳️
40,000 simulations. 6 races that decide it. 10 places we disagree with the market.
Updated daily 👉 predictionpro.com/midterms/m…
🚀 Jon Ossoff is the new 2028 Democratic frontrunner
• Ossoff: 24.4% (was 14.6% on Sunday)
• AOC: 15.4%
• Newsom: 14.9%
• ~$244K traded on Ossoff in the last 24 hours 💰
🤯 Mississippi went from 5% to 93% overnight
• Market: Scott Colom (D) 93.3% to beat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith
• Separated by just dozens of votes out of nearly 1 million 🗳️
• AP hasn't called it; affidavit ballots still being counted
Prediction Pro retweeted
And I somehow took margin in the one state that was more red than the polls had it 😂 epic
🏔️ Alaska is still counting, and it could be the Dems' 55th Senate seat
• Our model: Peltola 56%
• Market: Peltola 96.3% 📈
• Peltola leads Sullivan by just 626 votes (48.0% to 47.7%)
• Ranked-choice tabulation: Nov. 18 🗳️
Not called yet ⌛️
⚖️ With Dems taking the House, markets now favor a Trump impeachment
• Impeached before term ends: 76.5%
• By end of 2027: 60%
• By June 2027: 37%
• By end of 2026: 3.1% (new House isn't seated until Jan. 3)
But removal? Just ~20%. That takes 67 Senate votes 🧮
☕ The morning after: our model went 10 for 11 in called Senate races
• Hits: NC, GA, NH, ME, MI, OH, TX, KS, IA, FL 🎯
• Miss: South Carolina (we had Andrews at 42%; she won)
Alaska still counting 👀
🚨 Kalshi now has Democrats at 94.7% to sweep EVERY swing-state governor race
• Spent most of the year as a long shot
🚨 HUGE FLIP in LA: Kalshi now has Nithya Raman at 95.4% to be the next Los Angeles mayor
• Raman: 95.4% 🟢
• Karen Bass: 5% 🔵
• $116M+ traded
Bass has been the favorite for months
Election Night receipts:
🔵 Senate control: +$670
🔵 Ohio Senate (Brown): +$583
🔵 Texas Senate (Talarico): +$555
🔵 SC Senate (Andrews): +$191
🔵 Ohio Gov (Acton): +$172
🔵 Iowa Gov (Sand): +$167
❌ House D 8–10%: −$20
❌ MI-10: −$15
Net: +$2,304
LIVE Election Day Trading: Best Prediction Market Bets & Picks nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2evMybbBy…
🚨 BREAKING: Iowa flips to Turek
Josh Turek (D) now 70% to win the Iowa Senate race on Kalshi, up from 41.5% on Saturday.
Polls close at 9 ET.
🚨 POLLS CLOSING. MARKETS MOVING.
We're back LIVE at 8:30 PM ET to break down every big Election Night swing and the Senate races still in play.
Hit the ❤️🔥 if your ready to go
Well in profit 👀
👉 predictionpro.com
