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Resolution Foundation

@resfoundation

The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank dedicated to lifting living standards in the UK.

 London
linktr.ee/resfoundation
Joined August 2009
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Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)Photo by Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)
Living standards for non-pensioner families are set to fall for the rest of this Parliament ⤵️
Change in median real equivalised household disposable income since 2023-24, for non-pensioners, after housing costs: UK

ALT Change in median real equivalised household disposable income since 2023-24, for non-pensioners, after housing costs: UK

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Measures announced yesterday raise revenue for the Government, but there will be a hit to its spending power in the long run if Fuel Duty continues to be (repeatedly) frozen 👇
Effect in cash terms of Government tax decisions taken since March 2026 and the impact of not increasing Fuel Duty: UK

ALT Effect in cash terms of Government tax decisions taken since March 2026 and the impact of not increasing Fuel Duty: UK

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Real household disposable income growth in the 2020s will be the worst for any decade on record – ending just 1.4 per cent higher than when the decade started. Read 'Spread thin' now ⤵️ buff.ly/YjD1xMN
Chart showing Total growth in Real Household Disposable Income per person, by decade: UK

ALT Chart showing Total growth in Real Household Disposable Income per person, by decade: UK

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Small change? 🪙 Chancellor Healey had two challenges to meet at his first Budget... and Ruth Curtice doesn't think he did quite enough on either ⤵️ buff.ly/9f5mj1k
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🚨 Top of the charts Budget 2026 special Ruth Curtice & the RF team have 5 charts to help you put Wednesday's Budget in context. Despite some welcome news, this Budget has only pushed back a proper reckoning with the challenges we face. buff.ly/Un6eZoT
Budget 2026 special • Resolution Foundation

Budget 2026 special • Resolution Foundation

Afternoon all, While Wednesday’s Budget might have been a more modest affair than we’ve become accustomed to, RF staff were still crunching the numbers late into the night, soundtracked by Treasury...

resolutionfoundation.org
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We’re excited to be named a finalist for @SmartThinktank ’s Best Convener Award 2026! This is for our series of events over the last 12 months, bringing together ministers and a range of expert perspectives on the UK's NEETs problem.
Image from Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)
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Funding defence commitments within existing budgets would squeeze funding for unprotected departments. Without an increase in efficiency, levels of spending on unprotected departments risks failing to meet public expectations of service levels. Our full Budget 2026 response➡️ buff.ly/YjD1xMN
Line chart showing indexed real per-person departmental spending (2009-10=100) in the UK from 2008–09 to 2030–31: Health climbs steadily above 140 by 2030, Education dips then recovers to ~110, Defence stays flat then jumps to ~105, other departments fall toward ~75.

ALT Line chart showing indexed real per-person departmental spending (2009-10=100) in the UK from 2008–09 to 2030–31: Health climbs steadily above 140 by 2030, Education dips then recovers to ~110, Defence stays flat then jumps to ~105, other departments fall toward ~75.

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Day-to-day spending is growing moderately in this Parliament. On public services, this is set to grow by 1.7 per cent a year in real person terms between 2023-24 and 2028-29, similar to the two most recent periods under Conservative governments. For our full Budget analysis📈⤵️ buff.ly/YjD1xMN
Bar chart comparing average annual real per‑person departmental spending by period: capital spending (red) shows the biggest swings — large rise 2001–10, sharp fall 2009–17, large rise 2019–24; day‑to‑day (blue) and total (green) show smaller, steadier changes.

ALT Bar chart comparing average annual real per‑person departmental spending by period: capital spending (red) shows the biggest swings — large rise 2001–10, sharp fall 2009–17, large rise 2019–24; day‑to‑day (blue) and total (green) show smaller, steadier changes.

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Diet starts Monday? @GregoryThwaites explains why the Government's plans to cut borrowing in future years lack credibility ⬇️
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Speaking at our post-Budget event, Stephanie Flanders agreed that the cost of living support announced on Wednesday is badly target for households. And support will look even smaller come any further rises in oil prices and the energy price cap in coming months⤵️
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While the £100 Household Energy Payment grabbed most of the headlines, another energy bill change announced on Wednesday got less attention. On our Substack, @JMarshall_3 digs into the distributional impact of an overlooked bill change from the October 2026 Budget buff.ly/y0mSEDl
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What signal can we take from revised ONS productivity numbers? At our event yesterday, OBR Chair Jonathan Haskel said that these revisions haven't solved the productivity puzzle🧩⤵️
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Since Fuel Duty was last increased in January 2011, its real value has fallen by over 40 per cent. If duty rates had risen in line with RPI, receipts would have been about £20 billion higher this year, enough to cut employee National Insurance by 2p.
Line chart showing UK real fuel duty per litre from 2008–2032, with outturn falling from about 90p in 2008 to around 50p by 2026, then three forecast paths from 2026 (previous policy, announced policy, continued freeze) that diverge slightly through 2032.

ALT Line chart showing UK real fuel duty per litre from 2008–2032, with outturn falling from about 90p in 2008 to around 50p by 2026, then three forecast paths from 2026 (previous policy, announced policy, continued freeze) that diverge slightly through 2032.

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The typical household will pay almost as much for energy this year as it did during the 2022 energy shock.
Typical household’s real annual dual fuel energy bill and value of government support, by component: GB, 2019-20 to 2027-28

ALT Typical household’s real annual dual fuel energy bill and value of government support, by component: GB, 2019-20 to 2027-28

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The UK is now five years into an energy-driven cos of living squeeze, and it's long been clear that this winter would be difficult for many. Yet support in Wednesday's Budget was widely spread and badly targeted. Full Budget analysis➡️ buff.ly/YjD1xMN
Stacked-bar chart showing estimated annual cash gains by household income vigintile from Autumn Budget 2026 measures—council tax rebates, fuel duty freeze and energy VAT cuts. In cash terms, richer families benefit almost as much as poorer families from the cost of living package in Budget 2026.

ALT Stacked-bar chart showing estimated annual cash gains by household income vigintile from Autumn Budget 2026 measures—council tax rebates, fuel duty freeze and energy VAT cuts. In cash terms, richer families benefit almost as much as poorer families from the cost of living package in Budget 2026.

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The Budget will help a handful of renters to buy (via Your First Home), while support for tenants on the lowest income remains frozen.
Number of private renting families who would benefit if the LHA were unfrozen and who could access Your First Home, by income decile: England, 2027-28

ALT Number of private renting families who would benefit if the LHA were unfrozen and who could access Your First Home, by income decile: England, 2027-28

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The minimum wage rose by less than it could have. The Low Pay Commission was conservative in its recommendations, making full use of its new freedom to be flexible in the face of labour market conditions. Nye Cominetti explains why that's a good thing ⤵️ buff.ly/fy28DlM
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Does this Budget point towards a spring election? We discussed it, on the latest episode of High Resolution ⤵️ buff.ly/9f5mj1k
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This Parliament’s income growth is expected to be progressive, with lower-income families benefiting most. But for the rest of the Parliament, income growth for all non-pensioner families is set to be poor, for richer and poorer families alike.
Annual and whole-Parliament real growth in average equivalised household disposable income for non-pensioners, after housing costs, by income vigintile: UK

ALT Annual and whole-Parliament real growth in average equivalised household disposable income for non-pensioners, after housing costs, by income vigintile: UK

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Living standards for non-pensioner families are set to fall for the rest of this Parliament ⤵️
Change in median real equivalised household disposable income since 2023-24, for non-pensioners, after housing costs: UK

ALT Change in median real equivalised household disposable income since 2023-24, for non-pensioners, after housing costs: UK

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