Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at https://nitter.cf/t.co/5H8XIhN7eK
Joined September 2014
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Mantic flags some of the problems we raised with ForecastBench’s dataset questions. Knowing whether an Amazon grill will cost more next April than it did in October says little about the decisions forecasting is meant to inform.
(2) The questions are not interesting or useful. E.g. Will the listed price in USD for a new ‘Hamilton Beach 25361MN Indoor Searing Grill with Viewing Window’, sold by Amazon.com, be higher on 2027-04-23 than on 2026-10-25?
“Forecasts aren’t like lottery tickets that you buy and file away until the big draw. They are judgments that are based on available information and that should be updated in light of changing information.”
- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
“To be a top-flight forecaster, a growth mindset is essential.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Superforecasters have favored a Fed pause at this month’s meeting ever since the September decision, while the markets leaned toward another hike. In recent days, though, the financial and prediction markets have again been catching up with our Superforecasters.
“If forecasters can keep questioning themselves and their teammates, and welcome vigorous debate, the group can become more than the sum of its parts.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Before-and-after testing of our 2022 workshop participants showed a 37% average reduction in collective bias. Cognitive bias is one of four main areas we cover across the two days. Join us 17-18 November.
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The full workshop research: goodjudgment.com/wp-content/…
Workshop details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…
“Learning to forecast requires trying to forecast. Reading books on forecasting is no substitute for the experience of the real thing.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Over 4 years and 100s of questions, GJP Superforecasters showed a ratio of skill to luck that rivals professional athletes, and that record still holds more than 10 years & many more questions later. Forecasting talent is real and measurable, which is where the workshop begins.
17 & 18 November. You take our aptitude screening before day one, and facilitators discuss what the group results suggest once we are underway.
Details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…
“The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
