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Founder @Stateofblocks Prev @delphi_digital Going all in every time is the mathematically optimal strategy

Joined April 2018
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Going full time on @stateofblocks and the discord which means my time at Delphi has wrapped 🫡 big thanks to the Delphi folks - some of the best minds in the space and my work is sharper for it been building toward this for awhile now & excited to go all in. plenty more coming
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P clear by now that the US House of Representatives controls a good supply of cryptodickbutt tokens No other reason why my shitcoins are dropping atm as we head into the midterm elections
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Was a great stream chatting markets with the @MCGlive folks. Touched on a bunch, including where we go post Binance hack, swing trading majors, RH chain, Elysium launch and much more Give it a watch
Today on MCG @Stateofblocks w/@that1618guy Highlights :n ex Delphi analyst and founder of State of Blocks, a trading community that shares setups and research. Highlights Include: 00:58 - Marcus's Background 03:24 - Relative strength is only relative until the fall catches up 07:03 - @AnthropicAI IPO could drain liquidity like @SpaceX 10:10 - Add risk early and cut risk late 11:21 - Crypto has no passive bid so the marginal buyer rules 11:54 - Calls the Bitcoin low in at $60K 14:21 - $NEAR at $1.80 vs $4 and fundamentals follow price 16:36 - Bitcoin Google searches explain price 18:13 - HYPE at $70 with everyone talking was the warning 20:16 - What gets retail back into crypto? 25:23 - Binance hack of $6B with half frozen 26:00 - Real test is the bank run 28:36 - Bybit handled its hack like a masterclass 31:04 - Bids $HYPE and @Lighter_xyz as the marginal buyer returns 32:50 - Bullish Robinhood Chain after 70-80% pullbacks 33:14 - The trench special bids at a 78% pullback 33:34 - Likes $ORBIO for real revenue 35:05 - Priors dev call at a $2M market cap 43:19 - $700K rewards post was an overreaction 48:36 - Too many copy paste launchpads 49:18 - $BUN is different with AI market making 54:13 - Four agentic finance picks 57:19 - Loves $HOOKR and $STONKBROKER 1:00:06 - HYPE attention and why Kinetic is the beta play 1:03:03 - State of Blocks Discord
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chatting state of the market w the folks from @MCGlive, tune in
Please note today on MCG we will be starting with @that1618guy at 12pm EST to give ourselves more time to talk markets, tickers and ideas. @ChillTRD and @DineroDom0 will be hosting.
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State of the Market, week 45 (nov 2 open) BTC → unchanged, still leans adding risk, low conviction (6 wks). CPS firming 0.15 → 0.17, still far from 0.57 Alts → still trending but cooling fast, breadth 75% → 61%, 1pt above the 60% line (12 crossed down, 0 up) Trenches → still frothy, draining further (grift 1.48 → 1.10) watching this week: midterms tue + ISM services wed + NFP fri. messy election night or hot payrolls could tip $BTC to de-risk and push alts under 60%
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RH chain + Elysium is where capital and attention will be most focused on in the near term, and rightfully so will be spending alot more time in these ecosystems over the next months
i think the obvious trades for the next few weeks are pretty clear at this point $HYPE, kinetiq:native, $LIT
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$LIT giving us entry now, I’m bidding
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Looking forward to chatting w the goats
Tomorrow on MCG @stateofblocks w/@that1618guy 📅Monday, 2nd November 🕛12:30PM EST 📍Tune in here Stream powered by @fomo and @MetaDAOProject
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$BTC Nov after Oct in midterm years (tiny sample): 2014: Oct −13% → Nov +12% | Q4 −17% 2018: Oct −4% → Nov −37% | Q4 −44% 2022: Oct +6% → Nov −16% | Q4 −15% 2026 Oct closed −7.5% Q4 red all 3 modern midterms. n=3 tho, cycle & black swans (FTX '22) matter more imo
Replying to @that1618guy
gNovember is this month going to be green?
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+1 for agentic credit interoperability $priors team is showing us live how infra for a new protocol is built piece by piece. adoption / usage to scale next
priors now runs inside the agent frameworks people build with 🌿 an agent on hermes agent by @NousResearch, agentkit by @CoinbaseDev or @elizaOS can check a seller's record before it pays, borrow the gap in usdg from its priors line when its wallet runs short, pay over x402, and repay when its income comes in. we ran all three end to end on Robinhood Chain mainnet agentkit and elizaos install from npm today, and our pull requests are open with nous and coinbase next we want every runtime checking the same record before money moves, so an agent that repays carries its history into any framework it runs on 👇 @RobinhoodCrypto @vladtenev
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gNovember
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He goes by Kimchi
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The real kimchi
Life after the binance hack
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I wonder what happened after the FTX collapse crypto bottom
Binance hack around the FTX collapse anniversary and previous cycle bottom. Coincidence?
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$INTC down -45% in just a few weeks lol welcome tradfi bros to the altcoin trenches, we eat vol for breakfast on the daily
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$BTC analysis, not from a price perspective but from a game theory market participant behavioral pov this is my BTC game theory model at work 👇🏼
$BTC participants still arent as aligned on the long term view, but conditions are conducive for cooperative behavior to emerge (buy low now, sell high later) we are currently still in a Fragile Cooperation regime, which also explains the lackluster price action we have been seeing these past few weeks of chop as long as CPS (Composite Patience Score; measures the eagerness of participants to cooperate) stays low, fragility remains. however, the longer that BTC stays in this regime without breaking, the higher likelihood that cooperative behavior will take hold more on this via the BTC Game Theory model live on site
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ayo who's that person who bookmarked this you expecting a stimmy? 🤔
$2.6B stimmy gonna hit different
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$2.6B stimmy gonna hit different
North Koreans celebrating the binance airdrop 😂
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$ENA came in fully for the retest to the 1D 100ema and the reaction from that level has been decent so far imo once the market picks back up again ENA will be one of the faster horses out the gate
is $ena going to be the next zec for hayes
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Bottom vibes
- Binance comms explain it was a compromised laptop and not some existential ai threat - Users will likely be made whole - Real impact will be mitigated by like 50% or so - BTC is still 78k after short-led OI ramp drove this thing down a whopping 5% from open Am I missing something or is this not clearly bottom fuel?
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so $HYPE had: > partnership with ICE > druck's epic one tweet backing > elon's RT of druck's epic tweet calling it "interesting" > binance CEX hack pushing folks to self custody i mean... talk about tailwinds lol
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