Nerd/Techie Fighting A.I & $BTC FUD | $BTC ≠ Crypto | A.I. Super-User | Member: @TNorth | Contributor: @Roxom // @BitcoinForCorps | Data-Driven Analysis
Joined December 2009
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As BTC-TCs, both @Strategy | @Strive rely on robust capital markets access to scale the Treasury Model.
Through Digital Credit, they’ve opened additional capital-raising channels and, in my view, created a new asset class. The resulting preferred securities now trade as their own cohort | block in a secondary market, adjacent to $BTC and their “parent equities”, not separate from them.
My research at True North examines $STRC through that lens: buybacks, market structure, and the transmission channels connecting the offering to the wider complex.
This connection shows up in the data - the following results are from a broader analysis of all five preferred offerings: $STRK | $STRF | $STRD | $STRC | $SATA - using their price histories since inception and rolling attribution models built on matched trading sessions.
The results below are from a 9-4-26 snapshot of that larger analysis: a 60-session window spanning 6-11-26 through 9-4-26, covering the selloff, the pre-buyback rebound, and the buyback execution period.
Within that window, a model built on orthogonal (uncorrelated) factors explained 74.65% of daily price return variance in $STRC. The three largest allocations, expressed as shares of that explained variance, were:
a] Other (Non-STRC) Preferreds: ~44.7%
b] MSTR (ex-BTC): ~39.2%
c] BTC: ~15.7%
Read the full analysis here: tnorth.com/research/strc-buy…
$STRC: The forward-looking valuation and risk assessment of $BTC | $MSTR flows through to Digital Credit.
Here's how I think about it with @IIICapital:
This is market shenanigans due to the @binance hack. $BTC is fine and this will likely be the needed "capitulation" event that let's us form a real bottom before the next leg up. Oh, if you are currently playing with leverage, I'll pray for you. Actually I won't, maybe I'll light a candle or something...
Digital Credit: A Differentiated View
@IIICapital and I did a deep dive on $STRC | $SATA, buybacks and Digital Credit.
He says $10,000 in any Digital Credit offering since inception would have beaten Bitcoin, with a dividend on top.
@_Adrian is back with @IIICapital on The Income Show to break down what really drives STRC, why Digital Credit trades as its own asset class, and where Bitcoin goes from here.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:06 - The State of Digital Credit
3:23 - Why Strategy Is Buying Back STRC
5:49 - What Really Drives STRC
18:16 - Do Dividend Hikes Work?
21:51 - The $200K Test
23:15 - What Strategy Should Do Now
25:11 - Breaking Down the Data
34:17 - Was It a Leverage Flush?
43:51 - Bitcoin as a Language
47:58 - The Future of Digital Money
53:26 - Digital Credit in a Bull Market
57:07 - Bitcoin Outlook
1:00:58 - Closing Thoughts
$BTC $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA
My TL is full of people experiencing sticker shock re: the cost of an @Apple M5 Ultra with 512GB of RAM.
But with the global memory shortage, these prices dont surprise me. Clustering 4 @nvidia DGX Sparks into 512GB will run at least 28 bands, so its either you want to be on the bleeding edge of A.I. or you dont.
99.9% of people wont need this; me on the other hand...
$MSTR shareholders approved the Daily Div. Amendment.
$STRK | $STRF | $STRD | $STRC are going daily:
nitter.cf/saylor/status/21154518…
Accurate. Co-Pilot is objectively garbage. It's supposed to be an orchestration | productivity layer but leave it to @Microsoft to find a way to add so much bloatware and "security" that it's almost unusable.
$BTC: A Lingua Franca For Money
This morning @saylor said dismissing $BTC because anyone can create a cryptocurrency is like dismissing English because anyone can invent a language. On reflection, the analogy is even more apropos than I first thought.
TL/DR: $BTC doesn't need to replace the dollar to win; it only needs to become the agreed upon "monetary language" everyone settles in.
[1] A lingua franca doesn't replace native languages: Latin, French, and English each became a shared language of trade and diplomacy at different points in history, while people kept speaking their own at home. That's the realistic path for $BTC. Dollars, pounds, euros, and yen stay local, and $BTC becomes the neutral layer they settle on, one of the base layers of a future economy.
[2] Languages win by network effect and adoption, not by design alone: English is the most widely spoken language in the world because of historical, economic, and cultural adoption. Coins | Tokens | Iatrogenic Protocols are the same. Anyone can launch one, but that doesn't mean people will want to adopt it, or converse in it monetarily.
[3] Nobody owns $BTC: History shows a shared language works best when it gives no one an advantage; $BTC is open source and free to learn, with no issuer, no central bank, and no board. Any country, company, or person can "speak" it on equal terms.
[4] The grammar can't be rewritten: Fiat is a language whose dictionary keeps changing. There's always more supply, and so less meaning (value) per "word". With $BTC its word is its bond, and its rules are enforced by the network. 21M is 21M.
[5] Translators are evolving: Most income investors don't "speak" $BTC yet, but Digital Credit (STRC | $SATA) translates $BTC into something people already understand: dollar yield, backed by $BTC.
Coming back to this morning's point, the question isn't whether another coin can be created, but whether it will represent a language people want to adopt.
So far, the market is fluent in Bitcoin.
I agree with @saylor. $BTC is the lingua franca for the base layer of a future economy.
~22,500 cryptos tracked | $BTC dominance: ~60%
The market is fluent in Bitcoin.
Sorry to say it, but a lot of what people get out of A.I. and LLMs is user dependent; the limits of the output still largely depends on the quality of the input:
Everyone thinks LLMs will give us super intelligence. @_Adrian says they won't. They're the base layer.
What you get out of AI is user determined.
Revolutionaries use it to revolutionize. Entrepreneurs use it to scale. Scroll TikTok all day and it won't do much for you.
STRC | Buybacks vs Trading Activity (Updated)
According to today’s 8-K, Strategy repurchased 2,068,459 $STRC shares for $204.9M between 10-19 and 10-25, at an implied average cost of ~$99.06 per share.
Matched against the trading week (10-19 to 10-23):
[1] Repurchase Spending: $204.9M [+6.11%]
[2] Shares Repurchased: 2.068M [+6.69%]
[3] Repurchases vs. Dollar Turnover: 27.60% vs. 19.49%
[4] Repurchases vs. Share Turnover: 27.58% vs. 19.46%
TL/DR: Strategy bought more while overall $STRC trading declined.
Across 14 reporting periods beginning 7-20 and ending 10-25, Strategy has spent $2.043B repurchasing 20.98M shares; equivalent to 20.63% of dollar turnover and 20.45% of share turnover across matched trading sessions.
The Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program has $956.8M in remaining authorization.
Big $BTC buy for the team at @Strive
₿6,182 Acquired | ₿43,000 Total
₿40K milestone passed, ₿50K in sight.
Elon’s view on debt markets is valid for "pure plays" that lack independent cash flow, but access to capital isn't limited to one kind of debt | borrowing.
For larger public neoclouds, capital markets are open: $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN, and other peers trade tens of millions of shares each day which creates capacity to issue equity through ATM if | when debt is costly or unavailable.
Yes, it's possible that a debt freeze could lead to consolidation but that doesnt automatically block funding for entities with sufficiently liquid public floats.
Debt is one option, equity is another and as long as liquidity and trading volume keep the capital market access open a credit crunch might act as a near term constraint or quality filter rather than a death blow.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.