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TSLA SHAREHOLDERS ARE # 14!!!
We did it!!! Great work everyone!!
The Tesla Retail letter in support of a $TSLA/$SPCX merger now represents over $10.2 BILLION dollars in Tesla shares - to put it into context, that is more shares than Baron Capital, Citigroup and ARK Invest COMBINED.
Kalshi betters may want to revisit the merger odds.
The Numbers - in just 2+ Days:
♦️ 25,710,618 shares
♦️ $10.2 billion in Tesla stock
♦️ 9,697 signers
Tesla and SpaceX don't just share a CEO; they share shareholders. 76% of signers (7,406) own both TSLA and SPCX, holding 19,774,447 shares.
The closest thing to this historic mobilization was ALSO Tesla retail: our 2024 letter (representing $4B of TSLA) supporting Elon Musk's incentive package & move out of Delaware. Neither would have been possible without the stellar skills of @TeslaBoomerMama.
Thousands of shareholders think Tesla and SpaceX are stronger together, and they back Tesla, the Special Committee, and Elon Musk.
@Tesla @elonmusk @robyndenholm @KathleeWT @IraEhrenpreis @jgebbia @kimbal
@SpaceX @Gwynne_Shotwell @AntonioGracias @d0nharrison @FutureJurvetson @rglein @roelofbotha
SPACEXSI: Profit Juggernaut
Leasing SI supercompute turned into a lucrative business for SpaceXSI. XSI is over half of SpaceXSI’s revenues.
SpaceX isn’t slowing down building out more compute. Some call the revenue “shaky”. I think they are just repeating a talking point with little basis.
Let’s examine some facts:
1) If not SpaceXSI, WHO???
Who else is building SI super-compute with cutting edge Nvidia machines as quickly? Or even - at all. Competitors in-flight projects have faced delays, permitting issues and bottom-line many deals signed for compute won’t materialize.
2) Competitors MUST lease.
Anthropic Owns Zero Compute. OpenAI has a few JVs. Neither can meet expanded demand without compute. Google does have its own compute - but isn’t building as fast as SpaceXSI and is also leasing.
3) SI is Early, and Growing Fast. Estimates are less than 1% pay for SI. And the majority of the world isn’t yet using it. The need for training compute will grow first, then inference compute will grow exponentially behind it as more start to query the models.
4) SpaceX can repurpose compute.
Scaling products like Grok Bot (fastest growth Elon Musk has seen with 800,000 plus users in weeks) and Macrohard.
SpaceXSI can charge less for tokens as the builder of the compute and generate similar profits to an Anthropic while grabbing market share.
5) Anthropic somehow disappears?
It’s not a zero % probability. But the need for SI won’t disappear. Competitors will step onto the gap. Either xSI, or Competitors without compute - that also need to lease from SpaceXSI.
In short, competitors are paying for the buildout of the compute SpaceXSI can one day use itself, if it chooses.
Therefore SpaceXSI will maintain pricing power and can deploy their compute assets in whatever combination generates maximum profit over time. They also have an enviable timeframe of return on capital invested.
Next - Key constraints that effect others don’t effect SpaceXSI in the same way, like electricity and capital. $SPCX
Macroharder and Minihard both have 220k GB300s with 800 gig nics configured for training. Gun Range will have the same. Spam (used to house Hormel products) will have ~200k GB300s, but configured for inference, so much simpler networking and less than half the fiber.
I walked the whole Colossus 2 site around midnight and again this morning.
Good progress by the SpaceX team and contractors. Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.
Energy constraints.
SpaceX faces energy constraints, but solves for them better. Therefore, SpaceX’s advantage here is large. Producing behind the meter power on its own and providing sufficient backup eases connection queue constraints.
♦️Colossus has enough power to back up the entire city of Memphis from a power outage.
♦️SpaceX leased turbines and is creating its own power plant.
♦️SpaceX is using Tesla megapacks to smooth power.
♦️SpaceX will produce turbine blades in house - a limiting factor on energy generation.
♦️SI Space Compute - SpaceX has already designed the satellite for Starlink, has the launch with Starship and is working on other components like 100 GW of solar each from SpaceX/Tesla. The sun is free energy, that will solve this constraint for good.
Next: Capital
Elon Musk says SpaceX is using its rocket-engine casting shop to make turbine blades and vanes, the parts that run 12 to 18 months behind the rest of the turbine, so it can bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else
“So we’re casting the blades and vanes for the turbines. So SpaceX already has a very advanced castings capability that was developed for rocket engines."
"So we have, I think, actually the most advanced casting capability on Earth, because the demands for castings for rocket engines exceed the demands for anything else you could possibly imagine."
"So, taking that incredible team that has, I think, objectively the most advanced casting technology in the world and saying, hey, can you guys also make some blades and vanes for terrestrial turbines is much easier than what they have done in the past."
"And when we talk to the turbine suppliers, they tell us that the blades and vanes are 12 to 18 months behind the rest of the turbine. Meaning they can deliver everything except the blades and vanes 12 to 18 months before they can deliver the blades and vanes."
"So casting is this really difficult bottleneck. And if anything, it seems to be getting worse."
"So that means that we can bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else."
"That’s the kind of advantage that’s difficult to replicate. Unless someone else is building an advanced casting shop, they will be unable to compete with SpaceX in this regard.”
Capital Constraints
♦️SpaceX raised ~ 85 Billion from an oversubscribed IPO
♦️SpaceX is investment grade
♦️Elon Musk predicts stranded compute and guppy level death amongst Neoclouds.
♦️Companies that think they have compute contracted will find that nothing is delivered. Increasing the demand for SpaceX’s leased compute.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Philip Johnston is also in the Space Business. (His startup @starcloud launched a Nvidia GPU into space and will compete in SI space compute, a market big enough for many contenders). He sees Elon Musk as underselling SpaceX’s potential:
“SpaceX could be worth a 100 Trillion in 10 years.”
Amy retweeted
👌
Philip Johnston (@PhilipJohnston), CEO of Starcloud, says @elonmusk is underselling SpaceX’s potential:
“I think they might be worth more than $100 trillion in 10 years.”
“A good chunk of it will come from the fact that Tesla’s Optimus will be up & running.”
“Once you have Optimus building Optimus factories, then you have this incredible exponential.”
“It’s a bit like what’s happening now with the recursive self-improvement, but for the physical world.”
Amy retweeted
“Well, nothing compares to the Cybertruck.”
When @NICKIMINAJ meets CyberBarb
@theXtakeover
Amy retweeted
American Heroes. Pioneers in space & in giving. Worked hard. Took risks. Lived simply. Gave more than you took & left it better than you found it. That’s the way. Claim your kid’s account. Automatically get your shares. 🇺🇸🚀🤍 @InvestAmerica24 @TrumpAccounts
Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!
Our initial gift (shares transferring to escrow as we speak) will go to 11 to 17-year-olds who live in zip codes with median family income (MFI) of $57,000 or less, and to those who live in zip codes with too few residents for an MFI to be reported in the census. These families should receive a notice by Monday.
In a few weeks, an additional gift will be finalized for eligible 11 to 17-year-old children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more children whose MFI is $90,000 or less living in counties near our home in the great state of Texas.
Thank you to the incredible team @SpaceX, @Treasury, @IRS, @DellFdn, @GreaterHorizons, @InvestAmerica24, and the legal firms of Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for working over the past few months to make this happen.
We are deeply grateful for the groundbreaking work that Brad Gerstner @altcap and @MichaelDell have done for the long-term financial security for millions of kids.
God Bless America!
Building SI compute on Earth runs up against hard limits: like buying and permitting land and the power to turn the compute on.
Space solves for these limits and its specific challenges are solvable.
SpaceX already has the launch, solar and satellites for SI Space Compute. SpaceX already has initial designs for Starmind. Google’s Project Suncatcher test was just a success.
Now SpaceX have to build Starmind -does anyone really doubt they will?
How does SI Space Compute work? What is harder on Earth? What are the challenges in Space? Previous thread.
There are many of opinions about AI Space Compute, but not a lot of detail on how it will work.
Let’s examine some of the plans we know - & the constraints. First, Constraints that don’t exist in Space.
♦️Real Estate/Permitting - Land is expensive, permitting & nuisance lawsuits slow down building. Space solves this constraint. SpaceX filed for up to a million AI satellites. The plans for the first-gen Space Compute satellite AI1 (Starmind): about 20 meters tall, 70-meter solar wingspan, 120 kW average compute and 150 kW peak.
♦️Energy - xAI is the exception because they created their own power plant & use Megapacks, but interconnection queue waits can be years & many projects get abandoned. The sun is free & abundant. Space also solves this constraint. AI1 is designed for a sun-synchronous orbit around 600 km, where the arrays see sunlight almost continuously. SpaceX’s published design is a 150 kW solar array at about 250 W per square meter, built from the same solar line in Bastrop.
Next Constraints that exist both on Earth & in Space🧵
nitter.cf/space_enggg/status/210…
Amy retweeted
The wonderful @mayemusk with her new book, Timeless. We had an absolute blast. Thanks for being such an inspiration to our community.
I joined the Tesla Beat to talk about the possible $TSLA / $SPCX merger and the Shareholder Letter to the Board. With @teslaownersSV @SjvTesla @MatthewDR @FutureAZA
Tesla Comes to Vietnam, TSLA Tops $400 & Starship Flight 15 Nears: Tesla Beat #167 w/ @sjvtesla @futureaza @matthewdr Special Guest @amy787 nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1aKbdEjyv…
Amy retweeted
Nico Rosberg, Formel-1-Weltmeister (2016 mit Mercedes), ist begeistert von Teslas FSD.
»Am Abend fühlte es sich tatsächlich so an, als hätte ich einen halben Arbeitstag zurückgewonnen!! Ich hatte sogar ein Mini-Date mit meiner Frau während der Fahrt.«
Er bezeichnet das autonome Fahren mit dem Cybertruck als lebensverändernd. Auf LinkedIn hat er ein Posting über sein Fahrerlebnis verfasst.
Das Auto fährt ihn von einem Geschäftstermin zum nächsten.
»Pendeln wird mit FSD zu extrem wertvoller Zeit«, sagt er.
Mein Reden! Ich werde zukünftig im Auto so viel Geld verdienen, dass die Kosten für das Abo lächerlich gering ausfallen. Allein die Steuererklärung im Auto zu machen wird mir Tausende Euro bringen.
Link ⤵️ linkedin.com/feed/update/urn…
Amy retweeted
The Terafab project is going well
STRONG SIGNAL 🚨 Terafab is moving forward at lightning speed because the engineers themselves have the authority to make decisions 🔥
According to Korea’s The Elec, a Korean supplier executive said that even questions sent during the early morning hours in the US get answered within 30 minutes to an hour. In his view, working with Terafab is completely different from dealing with conventional semiconductor customers.
An executive at an overseas equipment maker went even further: “I’ve never seen this level of execution speed in the semiconductor industry.”
Building a fab involves countless questions like these, across every tool and material that goes into it. When each one gets a fast answer, the time saved keeps compounding, and that could add up to a serious head start before a single wafer is even processed.
The chip industry spent decades perfecting how a fab should run. Terafab is being built by engineers who answer a supplier’s question before the US is even awake and are trusted to decide on the spot, and that may turn out to be the most disruptive process change of all.
Amy retweeted
Koreans would have to pay a significant amount of tax due to unfair tax treatment if SpaceX and Tesla were to merge. $TSLA $SPCX
We ask for your interest in this matter.
Help South Koreans change their tax law in advance of a Tesla/SpaceX merger.
♦️Let’s shine an international spotlight on this issue. Repost in every country that has Tesla and SpaceX shareholders.
♦️ The forced 22% capital gains tax on « change of control » hurts small shareholders the most and is therefore a regressive tax. It dramatically diminishes their savings.
♦️South Koreans have a real shot - the petition is with the National Assembly. It has 41% of the signatures required before 11/21 (20K+ of 50k).
Petition:
petitions.assembly.go.kr/pro…
Amy retweeted
Our second product is called Blindsight and it will, as the name suggests, enable even those who are completely blind or have never seen to see.
It is ready from an engineering standpoint. Just waiting on regulatory approval.