Chairman & CEO @Strive Christ, Liberty, Bitcoin $ASST $SATA $SATS @hurdleratepod
Joined November 2021
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Probably the biggest math nerd conversation we’ve ever had publicly, but much needed.
Tune in for a deep dive on credit spreads and valuation math. It’s time to reset the conversation.
Welcome Back To The Hurdle Rate
Episode 80: Debt Crisis Is Accelerating
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6B Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS may compress against junk. They also discuss what Fannie Mae preferreds teach about underwriting dividends, why both mNAV frameworks break, and why $ASST trades like perpetual leverage on $BTC.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - The Binance Hack
02:57 - Triple C Spreads Blow Out
11:02 - Bitcoin Still Seen As Risk
14:30 - Digital Credit Spreads Will Compress
18:41 - The Fannie Mae Preferred Lesson
23:22 - Rethinking mNAV
33:00 - Premium Or Discount?
35:36 - Breaking Both Valuation Models
42:17 - The ATM Narrative Is Wrong
46:39 - Perpetual Leverage On Bitcoin
Matt Cole retweeted
There are times to be aggressive, and times to show restraint.
But we will always Strive to keep moving forward.
This is a marathon, and we will continue to do what we believe is best for delivering long-term, sustainable value for our shareholders.
Matt Cole retweeted
Strategy has acquired 811 $BTC and repurchased $208M of $STRC. As of 11/1/26, we hold 849,327 BTC and $4.9B of USD Assets. $MSTR strategy.com/press/strategy-…
Strive is perpetually short the dollar.
🔥 INSIGHT: Strive is perpetually short the dollar.
@Strive CEO @ColeMacro calls digital credit the best way to amplify $BTC's returns, since the Bitcoin stays unencumbered with no margin calls and no maturity date.
If you believe fiat will keep getting debased, he says on #CHAINREACTION, a perpetual short on the dollar is the ultimate trade for a Bitcoin maxi.
Matt Cole retweeted
One of the most advanced sessions at the Summit. I think we should turn it into a whole course for @PrincipledBus members…
Honored to moderate at @PrincipledBus Summit with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, and @ericyakes in Austin this week.
In his own keynote earlier, @ericyakes made the case that Bitcoin goes to $1M on its own, and the whole panel agrees.
The treasury thesis is an exciting accelerator, with its own opportunity and its own peril.
Which raises the question I'm still chewing on:
If it's even directionally right, @Strive and @Strategy become the economic equivalent of nuclear superpowers.
What does stewardship look like? And how do the rest of us hold them accountable?
Matt gave a substantive answer in the time we had: incentive alignment, promoting self-custody, pushing for Bitcoin to be spendable without capital gains, and X holding leaders accountable in real time.
A strong start, not the whole answer. That part we'll write together, as an industry and a community, in the years ahead.
I'm glad leaders like Matt, Eric, and Jeff are at the forefront
Grateful to all three, and to @PrincipledBus for putting $BTC and capital markets innovation on a capitalism mainstage.
Some questions are the point.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that October 31, the day of the Protestant Reformation, was also the day Satoshi released the Bitcoin white paper.
“The Bitcoin Reformation” by Tuur Demeester is a great article exploring the parallels between the two movements.
I recommend reading and reflecting on it.
casebitcoin.com/docs/TheBitc…
Matt Cole retweeted
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen a lot of chatter on X about capital market activities that were or were not taking place by ASST.
After really sitting with some of the takes and criticisms, I come back to this clip of @ColeMacro on The Hurdle Rate.
It is my opinion that there is a misalignment of time horizons between a lot of investors who own the ASST common stock (probably MSTR as well).
Digital credit = high time preference
Bitcoin = medium time preference
Amplified Bitcoin = lowest time preference
If ASST hits the common to acquire Bitcoin while Bitcoin isn’t even 15% above the 200 week moving average to take advantage of the mNAV premium they’ve earned, so be it. Over the last year, this team has proven time and time again that they execute better than anyone in the space and, candidly, communicate with the retail community better than anyone in the space.
If you’re an investor in ASST & MSTR, you’re on the frontier of a new asset class and an idea so novel that it truly has the ability to change mankind for the better. My opinion again: being critical of what takes place in a single week’s capital market activities is the epitome of high time preference and retail thinking. The grading scale should be based on the outperformance of Bitcoin over a long time horizon.
When Bitcoin moves again, ASST will be the fastest horse. IPOing SATS this close to the 200 week moving average has enabled ASST to have an amplification moat that the majority of the people invested in these companies still don’t fully appreciate.
$ASST $MSTR $SATA $STRC
Matt Cole retweeted
Seeing a bit of confusion out there around BTC Yield (growing BTC per share) being classified as a short-term KPI.
The reason we classify it as a short-term KPI is because it is a metric we can influence through the course of our normal operations over relatively short timeframes. What we are effectively saying is that BTC Yield is the metric front and center as we run the business and capital markets each day.
Management teams need to focus on the metrics directly within their control to guide daily decision-making. For us, that means driving towards positive BTC Yield.
We believe the combination of growing BTC per share and maintaining high amplification while Bitcoin is near historically inexpensive levels creates the ideal setup to drive long-term outperformance of our common stock relative to Bitcoin.
Amplification acts as a rate-limiting function on common equity issuance. If you issue too much common equity, amplification can decline quickly. As Bitcoin moves higher and amplification naturally declines, maintaining our target means leaning more heavily on products and capital formation strategies that increase amplification (preferred) rather than decreasing it (common).
Amplification targets can and should adjust throughout market cycles, but issuing too much common equity during an early bull market move could erode amplification too quickly and take away some of the gain potentials as it is harder to move it back up to range as Bitcoin continues moving higher. Every action must be taken in balance, keeping you in position, with a focus on capturing and continuously growing value for shareholders over the long run.
Our incentives are built around driving that outperformance. Management’s long-term incentives come in the form of common equity, so we are focused on taking the actions today that we believe will create the greatest long-term outcome. This is why alignment of incentives to common equity holders is so critical.
“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” - Charlie Munger
Every day brings new decisions. Define your strategy, set your targets, and execute relentlessly toward extraordinary outcomes.
Matt Cole retweeted
Yesterday, $SATS was the 5th most liquid preferred equity in aggregate dollar volume, and #1 in liquidity relative to its size.
SATS hasn’t even paid a dividend yet, they start on November 9th.
Still early days, but the interest and demand appears strong.
Matt Cole retweeted
The Strive equity ecosystem traded $431M in volume today:
$ASST: $283M
$SATA: $73M
$SATS: $75M
In the first 10 minutes of trading, $ASST traded $41M in spot volume, while BTC was finding its footing.
To put that into perspective, $XXI, $ABTC, $NAKA, $SVIA, $DDC, $SLE combined traded ~$24M in volume across the entire day.
$MSTR traded $808M, and $IBIT $570M through the first 10 minutes.
Data pointing to BTC market shock absorption occurring in layer 2 derivatives of Bitcoin.
New month starts next week.
Daily dividends + SATS first record date next week.
Work to do ⚡️
Strive Tracking Day 158
$ASST is now ranked 1,393rd largest public US company by market cap.
Fell 55 companies today.
41x to top 100.
6x to top 500.
454th largest by dollar volume.
$270,000,000+ traded today
Matt Cole retweeted
Need to put footprint of courage into stirrup of patience.
Fortitudine Vincimus.
- Shackleton
Joined Cointelegraph this morning to discuss the Binance hack, Strategy’s earnings call, & how Strive & Strategy are using Digital Credit as the primary source of Bitcoin accumulation & engine powering total returns for the upcoming bull market.
$ASST $SATA $SATS $MSTR $STRC
Has the Binance Hack Shaken Institutional Confidence in Crypto? [Ft. Matt Cole] #CHAINREACTION nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1wxWjleyO…
Matt Cole retweeted
Strategy is moving to a daily dividend, the model Strive brought to market.
Strive CEO Matt Cole calls the switch a smart move, and says there's room for both: Strive for yield seekers, Strategy for big institutions.
"I think it's a smart decision. It's clearly a better profile for these preferred equity securities to make the dividend event a non-event from a volatility perspective. And so I'm glad to see them adopt it."
"There's room for both of us. Frankly, there's room for additional issuers that build out a risk-return yield curve for different types of investors."
"A lot of investors are just going to want the highest yield. That'll likely be Strive's products that have liquidity and high yield."
"Strategy's likely playing a different game, where they're going to have to sell tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars of digital credit because of the size of their balance sheet."
"They are going to be playing the institutional game. I think they're going to be able to do it successfully."
"I want to see Strategy buying a lot of Bitcoin, hopefully in the near future."
Bitwise Sees $1.6 Million Bitcoin Ahead | Matt Cole nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1mxPaZvwq…
Matt Cole retweeted
Rolling home in a Tesla robot, @Strive hat, fresh off meeting the team. Daily dividends hitting.
Yeah, it feels like the future.
Matt Cole retweeted
LIVE: BFM296 w/ @Strive CRO @punterjeff⚡️
"Bitcoin will eat the world's financial risk"
We discuss:
🔸Bitcoin vs AI for credit capital
🔸Who can't own BTC and why?
🔸Bitcoin's risk weighting vs 24/7/365 liquidity
🔸Bitcoin as a global shock absorber
🔸Who buys $SATA & $SATS?