NY Times Bestselling Author, over 1 million copies sold, now published in 12 languages globally. Long-time @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
New York, NY
Joined March 2009
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Got Hard Assets?
It's Happening - Financial Repression
Breaking - LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON TREASURY PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS - Bloomberg
.@RichLowry what a brilliant speech my friend - here’s to William F. Buckley - always stay 5 steps ahead.
What a Glorious Asset Class
Top 5 crypto hacks all time.
Binance $6.3B Oct ’26,
Bybit $1.5B Feb ’25,
Ronin $625M ’22,
Poly Network $611M ’21
BNB Bridge $570M ‘22.
*North Korea’s tied to at least 3 of the 5 thefts. LuBian’s $3.5B in 2020 2nd on some lists but it was a silent mining pool drain, never announced — 127k BTC gone.
Why is the Fed on Hold with inflation this far above the Target?
Druck's point: when you have a violent rate of change within 120 days:
Rates ^
Oil ^
Dollar ^
*Already inflicted 100bps of hikes; the fwd spx eps hit of 25-35% using historic data, large negative GDP hit.
Copper
Musk: 100 Million Robots
War: Rebuild Ukraine, Iran, Gaza
AI: Rebuild Power Grid
AI: $5T all-in Data Center Capex
India: Demand surge
*Where is the copper?
Lawrence McDonald retweeted
Are credit markets flashing warning signs for the AI trade?
@BearTrapsReport's Larry McDonald (@Convertbond) explains why he sees growing financing pressures around the AI buildout, weighs concentration in the S&P 500 and highlights the market risks he’s watching.
For more: schwabnetwork.com/?CID=SM:Tw…
So timely! What I love about this scene is - in a magnificent way for a film, which is sooo hard to do - it crystallizes and simplifies the complexity of short selling. The immense power of inertia keeps most long at the worst possible moment.
youtube.com/watch?v=pLLgNi5U…
Pair this above against
nitter.cf/Convertbond/status/123…
Spent a week with Vincent on the road visiting Latam clients - a high quality, must follow. Great guy and a high altitude mountain climber!
Vincent Deluard (@VincentDeluard) on where the VIX would be with normal correlations:
“What’s been extraordinary really since the summer is that this correlation matrix basically is zero. We have about a third of US stocks trading at negative beta.”
“The average stock correlation with indexes is around 5%. This is unprecedented. It probably has to do with pair trades by pod shops, the AI trade and great earnings.”
“I’ve actually recalculated where the VIX would be if we had a normal correlation between stocks. By normal, I mean 50-60%. The VIX would be around 40.”
This is great — thanks @Ritholtz
Balyasny's founder Dmitry Balyasny on what a $50 million trader pay package actually is:
"If you have something that says Trader XYZ lost $50 million, that sounds like a giant number, but you have to remember, we're managing $28 billion."
"A typical portfolio manager might be managing a couple billion in gross market value. So that's 2.5%, which is not good."
"That pay package is composed of lots of different things."
"It might include a guarantee for the time that the person is out of the market. It might include a budget for hiring out their team."
"And it also might include extra upside incentives which are only paid out if the person delivers a certain amount of P&L."
"Usually with that type of number, you're budgeting that person to generate P&L of one hundred million plus a year."
Special thanks to @sam_vadas and @SchwabNetwork for having us on this morning. Important incoming segments ahead.
A) A SoH effectively closed for 240 days. B) War risk insurance for ships is still 30x normal, C) Saudi oil infrastructure has been hit at least 6x over the last 3 weeks - these events come with long tentacles.
Despite front-month flat-to-lower in the last 6 weeks, Mid-2027 oil continues to grind higher.
$USO /CLM7
If you’re a fiduciary putting a 70-year-old’s retirement into the S&P 500, more than 15% of that money now sits in two stocks. Ten years ago? It was 5%. On $1M, that’s $150,000 in Nvidia and Apple alone. The index didn’t just get riskier. Your client’s exposure did.
A five-year-old knows there’s endless demand for compute.
Where are the molecules? The gas, the land, the transformers, the years it takes to build them. That’s what the credit market is pricing, not the apps. The cost of default protection? Nvidia’s five-year CDS just crossed 116 vs 35 a year ago. Oracle’s > 300bps. CoreWeave’s > 1100. All the monkeys in the tree are shouting demand. The bond market is answering where the supply actually is.
Andy Jassy reveals AWS capacity is sold out for 2026, largely sold out for 2027, and a good chunk of 2028 is gone
“If you think about it, there’s only so much data center and power today. There’s only so much memory, and I don’t think that that shortage ends in 2027."
"I believe, one of the reasons, coming back to the capital investment, why I think we could invest a lot more and it wouldn’t be a bad use of capital is that '26 is obviously at this point sold out. '27 is largely sold out. We always leave a certain amount for on-demand in our inference service, Bedrock or EC2, but largely sold out, all the big chunks. A good chunk of '28 is sold out."
"There’s so much demand. If you think about the AI business and what we call core business, which think of core as non-AI, they’re both growing at really rapid rates right now. And if you have only a certain amount of memory, you have to decide how much of the memory you want to allocate to HBM, to the AI accelerators, versus to DRAM, into your core. So these are real trade-offs you have to make.”