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Democrats have a 4 in 5 shot of capturing the House in DDHQ's Forecast.
The first test comes early. By 7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in eight states with nearly 50 competitive House races between them — enough to show whether Democrats are on track for a majority, a wave, or more.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/30): Governor
Democrats are favored to win 22 of 36 Governor races.
Republicans remain favored to flip Kansas, but Democrats are favored in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio.
Find our full forecast, polling average, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/30): Senate
Democrats now have a 62% probability of winning the Senate. They're favored to flip five states.
Today's big mover is Kansas - it has shifted further towards the Democrats, with Republican Roger Marshall now at just a 53% chance of winning.
Forecasted flips
Alaska - 60% D
Maine - 60% D
North Carolina - 85% D
Ohio - 55% D
Texas - 60% D
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
DDHQ Forecast Update (10/30): House
FL-9: Lean R → Tossup
MI-4: Lean R → Tossup
MT-1: Lean R → Tossup
TX-34: Lean D → Likely D
Democrats are now up to an 82% win probability and a forecasted total of 239 seats.
13 seats are in the Tossup column.
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
With 5 days to go, Trump's approval rating is below 40%. How much is that going to matter?
Give us your take, and join us over on Discord for full midterm coverage: discord.gg/ddhq
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): Texas
James Talarico has a 60% win probability in Texas's Senate race.
In our polling average, he has a four-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton.
Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the Senate.
Find our polling averages, forecast, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): House
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): Senate
Kansas: Leans R -> Toss Up
Democrats now have a 60% probability of winning control of the Senate; our forecast gives Democrats the advantage in 52 seats.
Democrats are forecasted to flip Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Find our forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
Just six days until the midterms - what do you think will be the closest race this year?
Join our Discord for live coverage, and join thousands of other election nerds: discord.gg/ddhq
Our Texas Railroad Commissioner Polling Average is live!
Currently, Republican Bo French has a narrow lead of less than a point over Democrat Jon Rosenthal.
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/28): Senate
Democrats have a 58% probability of winning the Senate, their highest mark of the cycle so far.
Competitive states:
South Carolina - 65% R
Kansas - 63% R
Iowa - 54% R
Ohio - 55% D
Maine - 56% D
Texas - 56% D
Alaska - 61% D
Michigan - 69% D
Find our forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/28): House
Democrats are favored to win 238 seats, with districts forecasted to flip from coast to coast. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
Our forecast gives Democrats an 80% probability of flipping the House.
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/for…
