Marginal Revolution (@MargRev) profile picture

Marginal Revolution

@MargRev

Small steps toward a much better world.

marginalrevolution.com
Joined February 2011
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Those new service sector jobs? marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Those new service sector jobs? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Those new service sector jobs? - Marginal REVOLUTION

A suburban Chicago man has been sentenced to two years in federal prison for conspiring to stage armed robberies so that the purported victims could apply for U.S. immigration visas reserved for...

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Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians? marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on...

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William Nordhaus, RIP marginalrevolution.com/margi…
William Nordhaus, RIP - Marginal REVOLUTION

William Nordhaus, RIP - Marginal REVOLUTION

Here is notice from Yale, he was one of the true greats.  For the pointer I thank several MR readers.

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And so it begins... marginalrevolution.com/margi…
And so it begins... - Marginal REVOLUTION

And so it begins... - Marginal REVOLUTION

Researchers, I just uploaded a prominent QJE paper on climate change economics to @RefineDotInk and I loaded my critique of the paper. I asked the AI to offer an impartial verdict. I will make this...

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Saturday assorted links marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. Organizing Intelligence. 2. World Bank African urbanization report.  Building out African cities in a decent way could end up being the task of our coming era. 3. Summary of The Commanding...

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My Barcelona talk marginalrevolution.com/margi…
My Barcelona talk - Marginal REVOLUTION

My Barcelona talk - Marginal REVOLUTION

Wednesday, November 4, 18:30 Barcelona time, details here.  I am honored to have won the Elinor Ostrom Prize from the Institut Ostrom Catalunya.  Maybe see you there!

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The pass-through of retail crime marginalrevolution.com/margi…
The pass-through of retail crime - Marginal REVOLUTION

The pass-through of retail crime - Marginal REVOLUTION

This paper shows retailers increase prices in response to organized retail crime. We match store-level crime data to scanner data from the universe of transactions for cannabis retailers in Washing...

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The unintended consequences of academic leniency marginalrevolution.com/margi…
The unintended consequences of academic leniency - Marginal REVOLUTION

The unintended consequences of academic leniency - Marginal REVOLUTION

Education is widely recognized as the primary driver of human capital accumulation. However, policies designed to promote educational attainment often overlook students’ endogenous responses. This...

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Friday assorted links marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Friday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

Friday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. Dwarkesh interviews Robert Caro (!). 2. New and pretty brutal results on CTE and football. 3. Interview with Dan Wang. 4. Updated version of the Saez-Zucman audit.  Contestable and speculative...

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Better Incentives, More Kidneys, More Lives marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Better Incentives, More Kidneys, More Lives - Marginal REVOLUTION

Better Incentives, More Kidneys, More Lives - Marginal REVOLUTION

The organ procurement system has long been a miasma of inefficient monopoly providers. In 2024 I quoted some shocking facts from a great Statecraft interview with Jennifer Erickson and Greg Segal:...

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Chronicle of Higher Education interviews me on AI and education marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Chronicle of Higher Education interviews me on AI and education - Marginal REVOLUTION

Chronicle of Higher Education interviews me on AI and education - Marginal REVOLUTION

Scott Carlson did the work (gated, but free with registration), here is one excerpt: Cowen: …Another proposal I’ve made is that schools should let people do one class, only one class, AI-only — no...

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Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics? marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics? - Marginal REVOLUTION

I use LLMs to forecast treatment effects of research studies pre-registered on the AEA RCT Registry and the Open Science Framework. I focus on studies whose results were first publicly released in...

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Thursday assorted links marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Thursday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

Thursday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. “A whopping 79 NBA players are listed on today’s 2:30 PM injury report for tonight’s games. That’s roughly 15% of the entire league”  This is just week one people!  And some commentary. 2. Video...

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How Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok Have Changed Their Views on AI and Where They Disagree marginalrevolution.com/margi…
How Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok Have Changed Their Views on AI and Where They Disagree - Marginal...

How Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok Have Changed Their Views on AI and Where They Disagree - Marginal...

From the Archives-written by ChatGPT. Both became dramatically more confident in AI’s capabilities while remaining optimistic about its economic potential. Their differences concern how benefits...

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AI dominates human peer reviews marginalrevolution.com/margi…
AI dominates human peer reviews - Marginal REVOLUTION

AI dominates human peer reviews - Marginal REVOLUTION

We show that AI-generated article reviews are now better, by every measure we could construct, than reviews written by well-compensated human experts and judged to be of unusually high quality by...

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My design Conversation with Roman Mars marginalrevolution.com/margi…
My design Conversation with Roman Mars - Marginal REVOLUTION

My design Conversation with Roman Mars - Marginal REVOLUTION

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary: Roman Mars has built one of podcasting’s great empires out of noticing things everyone else walks past. His show, 99%...

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Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman - Marginal REVOLUTION

Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman - Marginal REVOLUTION

AI issues its judgment: 138 papers audited 2,035 problems found 147 serious enough to change a headline number 69% of papers have at least one 97% of major and moderate errors with a clear direction...

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How is AI shaping economic research? marginalrevolution.com/margi…
How is AI shaping economic research? - Marginal REVOLUTION

How is AI shaping economic research? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Does generative AI narrow or widen productivity gaps in research? We study the distributional effects of AI on research productivity in economics using evidence from three sources: NBER working-paper...

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Wednesday assorted links marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Wednesday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

Wednesday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. A new taxonomy of work, for the AI era.  Thread here. 2. On Morel’s Invention (NYT). 3. Iranian brick architecture. 4. How do non-profits use cash windfalls? 5. The roots of earlier German...

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Inequality in Equal Land marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Inequality in Equal Land - Marginal REVOLUTION

Inequality in Equal Land - Marginal REVOLUTION

Adam Nash has a good post on wealth inequality: …Every year, we pull the most recent data from the US Census on household wealth, cut by age. …invariably, the students’ initial response is a reaction...

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