Just sharing my random thoughts about the stock market and ₿itcoin
Joined March 2020
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Holy bounce! Now down only -0.45%
Sell the news or buy the dip? Futures are deep red as election results roll in. Markets like clarity, but a shift in Congress could introduce new uncertainty around regulation, particularly for AI and tech. How much of that risk is already priced in?
Nasdaq doesn’t look happy -2.25%
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A Democratic Congress likely means more crypto oversight and regulatory uncertainty.
bitcoin:native looks better insulated; ethereum:native has more regulatory exposure through staking, DeFi, tokenization.
Near term headwind? Probably. Long term, policy may slow adoption but it won’t stop it. The bigger trend remains intact.
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$TSLA @ARKInvest
“ARK’s price target for Tesla in 2031 is ~$4,400 per share. We have published our model on GitHub, and we invite readers to explore and test our assumptions and/or create visualizations from the simulations.”
github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Inv…
We ran the model. Our prediction for Tesla’s share price in 2031 is... live now.
Read here: ark-invest.com/articles/valu…
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$IREN “On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.”
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
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I don’t think I’ve read a stupider take about anything in my life.
I'm not an Elon hater.
I'm just telling you the Honest Truth:
This is a marketing stunt.
The technology is quite old.
Just nobody ever thought of bolting it on a car.
Because it's pointless.
Porsche or Ferrari could also build something like this if they wanted, but they don't, because it's not worth it for them.
It's worth it for Elon though, because his entire brand is all about having the halo of futurism.
His marketing scales especially well with tech gimmicks like this, which is why he is financially incentivised to do them, while others aren't.
Again, I'm not hating, but actually educating yall.
This is not engineering genius.
It's marketing genius.
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Curious what a $SPCX $TSLA deal would actually mean for your shares?
Barclays says an all stock merger could land before Tesla's Dec 6 annual meeting, SpaceX buying Tesla. RBC puts the premium at 20 to 30%.
Here's the math at today's prices (about $360 TSLA, $150 SPCX):
100 Tesla shares become about 240 SpaceX shares at market;
+10% premium: about 265 shares
+20%: about 290 shares
+30%: about 310 shares
That Barclays 0.7 number making the rounds is Tesla's market cap as a slice of SpaceX's, not how many shares you'd get. Mix those up and you'd think you're walking away with about 70 shares. The real exchange is closer to 2.4 SPCX for every TSLA.
Obviously no deal yet. Just a clearer picture of what all stock would look like.
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