Jon Ralston

“This is not partisan; it is patriotism, a word that has been shorn of all meaning by those cloaking themselves in the flag to undermine democracy. After following this mendacity cycle after cycle, the endgame is no mystery.” My column on the threat to democracy.

The early voting blog is updated! It ain't early anymore! On Election Eve, Repubs have slowed Dem ballot lead but it's still significant. Will GOP turnout tomorrow save the gov, or is it too late? And don't forget mail on Weds! I'll game it out in AM. thenevadaindependent.com/art…

TBT with final push to get rural voters. I kid. But she seems energized and this can’t hurt. She got her ad played and @merica story about Flippo shown. Still very uphill for her but might be best chance Dems have had to take the seat.

Put these #s in perspective: Ds have gradually increased their reg lead, especially in Clark, for months. It's now 12K statewide. Their lead in ballots right now is 43K, three and a half times their reg lead. That's why Rs need a huge Election Day turnout for gov to survive.

'Twas the night before Election Day, And all through the state, All the political creatures were stirring, So much on their plate, Dems were hoping to juice their big ballot lead, While Repubs were praying Turning Point would succeed. (I'll be here all week.)

For those who care, as of 3 PM, the Repubs were ahead by 500 ballots or so today. Once returned but not accepted ballots are counted, the Clark firewall will be 67.5K and the statewide lead will be 43K. Ds not mailing it in as much, may use drop boxes later and Tuesday. Today:

Reupping this one more time, and I hope for the last time: Everything Trump has done since November 2020 indicates he will not accept election results he does not like. He and his enablers, the clapping seal elected "leaders" and others, have made this a real possibility again.

The usual smart, in-depth reporting by @tabitha_mueller. Worth your time, always.

Noon update: Clark's returned mail is starting to get accepted but Dems are not winning it by nearly the 2-to-1 margins they had been. It's actually relatively close and is not making up for the mail in the rurals so far today. The numbers:

This is one of the biggest Oscar snubs in history. Not only was her performance incredible but this is a movie that is in my top 10 all time.

One thing changes as you get older and you have been doing this for decades: My level of annoyance with people today, tomorrow and in the aftermath sharply increased through the years, mostly because I paid attention to Twitter trolls. Now I find them mostly amusing and sad.

"Predictions do not matter." Revising mine right now...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this day every other year, I have my prediction hangover: WHAT HAVE I DONE? No personal preferences (I hope I'm wrong at times) but a data-driven forecast leavened by experience/gut. Days 'til general: 1 Days left to count ballots: 7

The early voting blog is updated! Not much change Sunday. D+43K, 66K in Clark. Keep an eye on how much mail is accepted today, especially in Clark. Can the Dems build on their lead by a significant margin? Most races baked; gov not one of them. thenevadaindependent.com/art…

My predictions for Tuesday: thenevadaindependent.com/art…

It’s time. Predictions posted in an hour or two.

Only word you know is true is that I need a cocktail to do this...

I have polled a group of insiders about their predictions in the gov's race. Republicans and Democrats. Smart folks. Nearly all think the race will be very close. 11 have responded so far. 6 picked Lombardo and 5 picked Ford. I'll have my predictions posted tonight @TheNVIndy.