Semiconductors, Analyst @SemiAnalysis_ No investment advice. Opinions are mine only.

Joined September 2011
AMAT raised CY26 revenue growth guidance to 40% from earlier >>30%. Started the year with 20%+ growth expectation. Even 40% growth doesn't guarantee WFE outperformance. But AMAT has broad presence across tool chain and a big beneficiary of AI/DC trend. Expects DC wafer volume to be 2x vs smartphone wafer volume in two years after reaching parity this year.
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TSMC Aug 2026 - $16.079B in USD, +10.8% M/M and +44.3% Y/Y; First $16B month; Strongest August M/M since 2022 - Sixth consecutive monthly ATH, seventh in eight months in ‘26 - 32 consecutive months of Y/Y growth; August annualized run-rate is $193B - The first 8 months of 26 $106.7B, +37.1%; Sep-Dec needs $64.7B (+45% Y/Y) to hit at least 40% y/y growth in CY26 -+$1.566B, the second-largest ATH increment ever and 2x of June's +$769M - Jul+Aug $30.6B is already 92.5% of the entire 3Q25 ($33.1B) and > all of 2Q25 ($30.2B)
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Broadcom 3QF26 - FY27 AI $115B, (raised from >$100B); supply secured - FY28 AI doubling to $230B; supply secured; demand > supply - 3Q XPU up >3.5x y/y = 73% of AI; networking 27% (2Q was 40%, Hock had called 30% the normal share); AI networking up >2.5x y/y - 3Q AI revenue up 55% q/q and 221% y/y to $16.7B and 4Q AI revenue will grow 30% q/q to $21.7B - 4Q both XPU and AI networking to triple y/y - networking to grow just as fast as XPUs over the next few years - Content per GW $20-30B, stable across generations since power per chip rises with ASP
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China's CXMT and YMTC together entered $100B+ annual run-rate in 2Q26, up almost 9x y/y. The combined annual revenue run-rate nearly doubled for three straight quarters through 2Q26. Combined GM raised from around 0% through 2023, 27% in 1H25, and >85% in 2Q26. $150B/$200B combined annual revenue run-rate not far away.
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Marvell QJul26 - F27 (C26) revenue raised by $500M (+45% y/y) while F28 (C27) revenue raised by $1.5B (+50% y/y); incremental largely driven optical connectivity though custom is also a part - F28 guidance already includes the Google warrant revenue; F29 and beyond will see the step-up - F27 DC growth raised to 60% y/y (vs 50% prior); F28 DC raised to >60% y/y (vs 55% prior); F28 supported by additional supply secured - F28 custom still expected to >2x y/y (not capped); F29 custom >$10B target reiterated with upside bias - Revenue up 13% q/q and 37% y/y to $2.739B at 58.9% non-GAAP GM (flat q/q); both above midpoint - QOct guided up 15% q/q to $3.15B; 4Q accelerates further
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- demand doubling based customer forecasts; supply bottleneck through end of FY28 - Memory costs higher than anticipated and weigh on margins; 3Q GM guided down to 74% (+/- 50bp), 4Q bottoms at 71-72%, FY28 settles at 72-73%; price increases from 1QF28 - DC revenue $89.0B, up 117% y/y and 18% q/q; Blackwell Ultra remains the vast majority of revenue - Hyperscale $48.7B, up 102% y/y and 13% q/q; ACIE (AI clouds, industrial, enterprise) $40.3B, up 138% y/y and 25% q/q; ACIE is now 45% of DC; expects non-hyperscale to be roughly half the DC business - Edge Computing $7.2B, up 27% y/y; Blackwell workstations strong while consumer PC affected by memory
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- Revenue per GW has gone from $18B (Hopper) to $25B (Blackwell) to $40B (VR); $60B cost per GW for DC - Grace TTM revenue >$5B; server CPU demand reiterated at $20B; FY28 server CPU revenue to >2x y/y - Hopper (H20/H200) shipments to China were <1% of DC revenue; dilutive to GM - China revenue (customer HQ basis) was $7.9B, up 98% y/y and 73% q/q, but this is mostly gaming and workstation - About $50B invested in frontier AI labs to date; the 10-Q shows $99B of equity investments held plus $25B committed; Neoclouds exit 2026 with 8GW installed vs about 3GW at end-2025
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Nvidia QJul26 - First-ever year-ahead guide; FY28 revenue up 70% y/y; supply-constrained - Supply and capacity commitments jumped from $119B to $279B in one quarter - Inventory $31.6B, up 22% q/q, with raw materials tripling in first 6 months to $11.3B - VR production shipments started in Aug; guided to 20% of 3Q DC revenue; expected to be the fastest ramp in company history - Revenue $96.2B, up 106% y/y and 18% q/q, 4th straight quarter of y/y growth; beat the $91B guide by 5.7%; GAAP gross margin 75.0%, flat q/q - 3Q revenue $108B (+/- 2%), up 12% q/q and about 89% y/y; driven by ACIE; hyperscale re-acceleration in Q4 and FY28 (VR) - Networking had another record quarter, up 18% q/q to $17.5B
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Synopsys QJul26 - EDA and IP are back on track; IP is still 10% down vs previous peak - EDA at $1.28B is an all-time high, 8% above the prior $1.18B peak of Q3 FY25 - On AI disruption, the company sees customer models still needing its physics and sign-off tools; AI-native design is a demand driver rather than a substitution risk, per SNPS - Record hardware revenue again; 12 new and 66 repeat hardware customers in the quarter - IP revenue $474M, up 11% y/y and 4% q/q; first y/y growth after three straight down quarters, second consecutive sequential increase, with further sequential growth expected in Q4
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Qualcomm sees HBC (High Bandwidth Compute) coming to smartphones, XR and cars too in the future. HBC Gen 1 commercialization in 2027 and Gen 2 in 2028. Sees lots of interest from hyperscalers. Adopts system integratrator model with compute die from Qualcomm, TSMC manufacturing, DRAM from stacking from someone else. With HBC, Qualcomm claims 6x the bandwidth per watt of HBM designs.
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