Subu Trade

Since 1957, any random day for $SPX has been higher: • 1 year later: 72.8% of the time (+8.8% average) • 6 months later: 68.9% of the time (+4.3% average) • 3 months later: 66.1% of the time (+2.1% average) • 1 month later: 61.6% of the time (+0.7% average) • 1 week later: 56.7% of the time (+0.2% average) This is the baseline. Without this benchmark, forward-return statistics are meaningless. They tell you nothing about how bullish or bearish a signal really is.

NASDAQ up 12 days in a row! This is historic momentum, and was bullish for both the NASDAQ and $SPX $QQQ $SPY

Large Speculators are RECORD net-long Bitcoin. This breaks the previous record from September 2023, before Bitcoin rallied. $BTC

NASDAQ 100 is up 8 days in a row, with a total gain of 9.4%! Momentum is strong, and this is bullish for the NASDAQ in the next few days and weeks $NDX $QQQ

Market breadth jumped. For the first time in 4 months, the S&P 500's McClellan Oscillator is above 50 We've seen 11 similar cases before, and 10 of those 11 saw $SPX higher a month later. Average gain +3.2% H/T @TheMarketStats

S&P 500 is up 6 days in a row, with a total gain of +6.9% This only happened 9 other times, and $SPX was consistently higher 6-12 months later. Average maximum drawdown in the next year was 9.3% h/t @Norseman1 @RyanDetrick

Large Speculators are extremely net-long Bitcoin. Such extreme positioning was last seen in 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.

$SPY Put Volume spiked on Friday. Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500. Will this time be different?

Energy sector $XLE Short Interest is at the highest level since 2008. Energy stocks are being squeezed higher

$GLD (gold ETF) is Down 9 days in a row. It has never gone Down 10 days in a row before. H/T @Mr_Derivatives

S&P 500's Daily Sentiment Index is at 22, the lowest since last April's crash. Similar depressed sentiment readings came close to marking bottoms for $SPX

$SPY volume today jumped to the highest since last November's bottom. Are we getting closer to capitulation? ⬇️

Total Put/Call Ratio jumped to 1.12 The last 10 spikes came close to marking bottoms for $SPX Will this time be different?

From the AAII Sentiment Survey: Cash Allocations is at 14.19%. Investors are holding the least cash in 4 years. This happened 3 times in the past 20 years: late-2017, Jan 2020, late-2021. Each case preceded significant market volatility and losses for $SPX

From the COT Report: Asset Managers dumped a record amount of S&P 500 futures this week Even more than during the COVID crash

Time to buy Indian stocks? 🇮🇳 India ETF $INDA has seen RECORD outflows over the past 2 weeks. Even more outflows than during the COVID crash.

Gold ETF $IAU just saw record outflows ⬇️

The past 30 trading days have seen massive outflows from financials. $XLF outflows are now on par with May 2022. Even in the middle of the 2022 bear market, $XLF first bounced, before heading lower.

Despite being within 5% an all-time high, the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is extremely oversold. This setup has occurred 10 times previously, and $SPX was higher every single time 1 month later. Average gain over next month was +3.2% h/t @eliant_capital

$VIX is above 30 for the first time since last April. After similar $VIX spikes, $SPX was higher 11 of 12 cases, 1 week - 1 month later.