Director of Investment Analysis @ARKInvest | Direct Research on Autonomous Tech, Robotics, & Embodied AI (🚗🚜✈️🤖). Disclosure https://nitter.cf/t.co/CfmviBF2g4
New York, NY
Joined December 2013
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Going live to discuss SpaceX and Tesla earnings today with a great group. Tune in at 4pm.
The Tesla and SpaceX numbers are in. Now the analysis: live with ARK, @mach33, and special guests today at 4pm ET.
nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1qKVmyYRa…
1/ We’ve updated our Tesla model. Robotaxi still comprises the majority of value over the next 5 years, though Optimus sales inflect more here than previously modeled. Tesla is early in scaling robotaxi, but its vertical integration and cost advantages could make it first to widespread service.
What could @Tesla be worth in 2031? ARK’s long-awaited valuation just dropped.
ark-invest.com/articles/valu…
2/ We also updated robotaxi pricing to capture a wider range of willingness to pay, which supports our price target. We model Tesla standalone, but note meaningful synergies from a possible SpaceX merger—SpaceX could contribute almost 2/3 of combined entity revenue in the next 5 years.
My thoughts on a monumental and first meaningful commercial Starship launch:
Starship’s Next Test Just Got More Interesting
@TashaARK and @DMaguireARK on Starship Flight 14, the first V3 Starlink satellites to reach orbit, and the widening gap between SpaceX and other companies.
This week I wrote about SpaceX's recent spectrum acquisition and how it completes the puzzle for Starlink Mobile. Check it out below.
Tasha Keeney retweeted
Starship’s Next Test Just Got More Interesting
@TashaARK and @DMaguireARK on Starship Flight 14, the first V3 Starlink satellites to reach orbit, and the widening gap between SpaceX and other companies.
Starship delivered its first commercial success last week in orbit. More importantly, SpaceX is making progress toward full reusability and a 100ton+ platform while the rest of the industry is catching up to Falcon 9. Read more here:
Tasha Keeney retweeted
Robotics Has Advanced Beyond Our Expectations
@TashaARK hosts ARK’s Big Ideas mid-year update on embodied AI and space with @DMaguireARK. They cover four areas: robotaxis, autonomous logistics and drone delivery, humanoid robots, and reusable rockets.
youtu.be/rVqXdBqFPJ8?si=7H0i…
Tasha Keeney retweeted
Archer's air taxi story gets the headlines. We believe its defense business should, though. It's scaling right now.
@TashaARK says Archer has quietly sized its near-term defense opportunity at $100 billion, working with Anduril on a loyal wingman aircraft and a logistics aircraft, and just acquired Boeing's profitable Insitu business. Urban air mobility is still the long-term prize, but in a heavily regulated industry, defense contracts de-risk the path there and could scale years before air taxis do.
Watch the September Fund mARKet Update for the full breakdown.
This week I wrote about Tesla's call to action for Cybercab fleet buyers. Cybercabs should deliver autonomous ride-hail at affordable prices, expanding the ride-hail market significantly.
Tasha Keeney retweeted
We ordered a Zipline drone delivery. @TashaARK shares our thoughts.
Tasha Keeney retweeted
Last week, Zipline and Uber announced a partnership targeting one million drone deliveries per day by the end of 2029.
DoorDash, the largest food delivery platform by volume, is taking a different approach and building its own drone platform, DoorDash Air.
Separately, Amazon’s drone delivery service plans to reach nearly 500 cities and towns by the end of 2026.
Manna launched in Tulsa, Oklahoma and Walmart is targeting more than 270 drone delivery locations in 2027.
ARK’s research suggests that drone delivery at scale could cut last-mile costs by more than 90%.
@TashaARK and @DMaguireARK on what all of this could mean for the addressable market in this week's newsletter ⬇️
