Tephra Digital LLC

Bitcoin didn’t just appear. It was forged over five decades of cryptographic innovation, monetary upheaval, and geopolitical shifts. This is its origin story. Grateful to all who paved the way.

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Break yellow and orange runs wild. 🟠

Bitcoin is the second cheapest asset in the Mag 8.

If you’re hunting for yield, you might be the yield.

It will look obvious in hindsight.

Central banks preferring gold over Bitcoin may not be bullish for gold. They already own gold in size. In a world of weaker employment, larger deficits, and growing fiscal strain, official-sector gold can become a source of liquidity. It did in 2008. Today, a lot is beginning to rhyme with 2008. At current prices, annual gold production is ~$650 billion. Annual Bitcoin issuance is ~$12 billion. Gold has both heavier new supply and a possible central-bank overhang. Bitcoin has neither. Some gold bulls are starting to notice Bitcoin’s relative strength. That is how rotations start.

Markets are pricing the endgame faster and faster. If unemployment hits 5%, they may start pricing 10% almost immediately. They skip the commercials and go straight to the final act: Bitcoin. AI → jobs → credit → policy → Bitcoin.

AI could trigger a subprime-style crisis for white-collar employment and credit. Our 2035 forecast: • ~41.7M U.S. jobs displaced
• Only ~8.5M new jobs created
• ~20% of the workforce disrupted That implies roughly a $1.3T annual income shock to the economy. The policy response could be significant. We do not use the subprime analogy lightly. We identified the subprime mortgage crisis in 2005 and the contagion risks from Covid in early 2020. We believe AI-driven labor displacement may create similar downstream risks through income, credit, and policy. Bitcoin may be one of the most underappreciated ways to invest in that outcome. AI → jobs → credit → policy → Bitcoin. Link: tephradigital.io/labor-force…

Markets send signals. Gold in Dubai is trading below spot because war has disrupted flights and bullion logistics. Bitcoin demand in Iran is rising as people look for a financial escape valve from a collapsing currency and sanctions-isolated banking system. A few hundred miles apart. Completely different signals. Gold is limited by transportation. Bitcoin moves by telecommunications. Atoms vs. internet.

Markets are worrying about war, oil, and private credit. Soon they’ll go back to worrying about AI replacing your job. Bitcoin may be starting to notice.

Elon Musk has talked about data centers in space, powered by the sun which is 99.9% of the energy in the universe. He’s also said the future of currency is work and energy. Bitcoin is work and energy. Bitcoin mining is the natural extension of that idea. @elonmusk

Everyone’s worried about earnings risk: software drawdowns, AI multiple compression, VaR shocks, weak liquidity, high real rates. And yet… they’re ignoring Bitcoin. BTC has no earnings, no guidance, no management and that’s the point. In the AI era, Bitcoin is the hedge.

Bitcoiners every time The Financial Times declares Bitcoin dead @FT ✅

Largest BTC–gold drawdown on record in 2025. Historically, that precedes sharp Bitcoin outperformance when liquidity turns. If history rhymes, 2026 looks asymmetric. Happy New Year.

The Fed just went from ending QT to buying $40B in T-bills in 9 days. Fastest balance-sheet U-turn in history.

We agree @plaffont, but you’re missing the most important dot. Bitcoin.

Tracking stablecoin supply relative to potential long-term targets.