Britain’s leading independent economic research institute
London, UK
Joined November 2010
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NEW: Autumn Budget 2026 explained in 90 seconds
@HelenMiller_IFS runs through everything you need to know about today's Budget, including its support measures for households, 'fiddly' tax rises, increased government borrowing and constrained spending plans:
"These changes could be the most important long-term legacy from this Budget."
In @themjcouk, @fiscalphillips looks at the new fiscal devolution roadmap and how the system will allow areas to gain financially from growth, but with guardrails in place ➡️ ifs.org.uk/articles/balanced…
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Here's one of the things @beeboileau and I found in our @TheIFS overnight analysis of the Budget. Healey has now allocated much of the spending reserve for the next few years, including to fund the Defence Investment Plan. This is categorically not what the reserves are for.
ALT John Healey has now allocated 40% of the day-to-day reserve between 27-28 and 28-29, and 25% of the capital reserve between 27-28 and 29-30
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
👇@TheIFS is recruiting: openings for those coming via many routes - post doc and permanent positions. In all areas of IFS work (labor, education, public, tax, firms, development, crime, environment..).
Please RT to help spread the word.
"But the biggest issue facing councils is not a lack of financial incentives. It’s a lack of funding."
A new article by @fiscalphillips in @lgcplus on the government's fiscal devolution roadmap ⬇️ifs.org.uk/articles/sensible…
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Health-related and carer benefits have been growing as a share of benefit spending on working-age adults and children. This is set to continue based on yesterday’s forecasts.
Two reviews covering the benefit system are expected to provide recommendations for reform next month.
NEW PODCAST: Budget 2026: what has the Chancellor changed?
🎙️ @HelenMiller_IFS, @MaxWarnerIFS, and @JCribbEcon consider the announcements, higher borrowing and the difficult choices ahead on taxes and public spending:
🎧️ Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/budget-2…
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
If you saw my sleep-deprived colleagues @TheIFS presenting their incisive Budget analysis this morning and wished you could join in on the fiscal fun - then these jobs might well be for you! Do have a look, and apply.
Interested in working for the IFS? Applications are open for the following roles:
📊 Research Economist (apply by 8 November)
📊 Research Economist - postdoctoral (apply by 15 November)
📊 Postdoctoral Fellow (apply by 15 November)
We also have opportunities available for current PhDs and undergraduates, closing January 2027:
🎓️ Summer Interns (apply by 17 January)
🎓️ PhD Studentship (apply by 29 January)
🎓️ PhD enrichment placements (apply by 29 January)
See all of our current opportunities and find out more about applying here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/jobs
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
This chart is wild.
Because of high nominal earnings growth, freezing income tax thresholds is drawing huge numbers into the higher rates of tax. More than doubling them between 2020 and 2030!
Implications for #fiscaldevo plans - currently set to be based on basic rate tax.
📈 @OBR_UK now forecasts 10.8 million people will pay the higher or additional rate of income tax by March 2031.
This is 6 million more than if the higher rate threshold had risen with CPI inflation since 2022, and 250,000 more than the OBR forecast in March.
ALT Chart shows number of individuals aged 16+ paying higher or additional rate income tax (millions). Title states: "The freezing of tax thresholds since 2022 will have brought 6 million more into paying at least the higher rate of income tax by March 2031."
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Just an incredibly grim chart.
Last decade was comfortably the worst on postwar record for living standards...
This decade: hold my drink.
The outlook for real household disposable incomes after yesterday's Budget remains bleak.
@OBR_UK forecasts incomes will rise by just 2% over the whole 2020s.
This is far lower than any other decade since the 1950s.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
'People still at the end of this Winter will be feeling worse off because the overall rise underlying that is just so big'
Helen Miller from the Institute for Fiscal Studies spoke to #BBCBreakfast about the one-off £100 payment for up to 20 million households in council tax bands A-D in England to help deal with rising energy bills, with equivalent funding for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6x2…
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Key chart to understand the cost of living package announced at the budget.
It's a relatively small, broadly spread, package of support.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Absolutely key chart from our @TheIFS budget analysis.
We are on track for slowest decade of real household income growth in the last 70 years.
The outlook for real household disposable incomes after yesterday's Budget remains bleak.
@OBR_UK forecasts incomes will rise by just 2% over the whole 2020s.
This is far lower than any other decade since the 1950s.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
What matters for the public finances are not the plans, but whether they are actually delivered.
Past experience shows us (the red line in the chart) that typically, borrowing falls less than planned.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
The outlook for real household disposable incomes after yesterday's Budget remains bleak.
@OBR_UK forecasts incomes will rise by just 2% over the whole 2020s.
This is far lower than any other decade since the 1950s.
❓Got questions on yesterday's Budget? Ask our expert panel here now: app.sli.do/event/1ncA4qHbpKj…
💻 Watch our post-Budget event live here: youtube.com/watch?v=JwlLUiZt…
What does the ‘hodgepodge’ of tax changes announced yesterday mean for our tax system?
@StuartAdam_IFS runs through yesterday's many announcements on tax in our post-Budget event.
📺 Watch live here: youtube.com/watch?v=JwlLUiZt…
In summary, this Budget contained few big changes but lots of small changes, many of them supposedly temporary – introducing further tinkering, complexity and uncertainty.
There wasn't much sign yesterday of an economically coherent plan for tax policy.
