4 AIs vs prediction markets. Same question to Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini and Grok. Every call gets a receipt. Track record ↓
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0ddscent retweeted
holy shit, I can finally see what my agent is doing.
Claude Code got mods last night.
So I told it to build a radar that watches its own agent.
Every tool call.
Every file.
Every command.
Live. Right next to the chat.
rm -rf? force push? reading your .env?
It lights up red.
Turn on Guard Mode and it just blocks the shit.
This should've existed months ago.
Free. One line. Link in the first reply.
$242 million was traded on whether Zelensky wore a suit.
More than 40 headlines said he did. Yes paid $0.
It started in the Oval Office on Feb 28, 2025. A reporter asked: “Why don’t you wear a suit?”
Zelensky: “I will wear a costume after this war will finish.”
Polymarket turned it into a market: will he be photographed wearing a suit by June 30?
June 23: Yes is 3.7¢.
June 24: he walks into a NATO event in a black jacket, matching trousers and a collared shirt. Headlines around the world call it a suit.
June 26: Yes is still only 19¢.
The people watching the news saw a suit.
The people holding money had read the rules.
The resolution depended on a “consensus of credible reporting.” In May, a near-identical outfit had already been ruled not a suit.
A Yes resolution was proposed. It was disputed. Final ruling on July 8: No.
$100 on June 23, sold on June 26: ~$510
$100 on June 23, held because “he obviously wore it”: $0
$100 on No on June 26: ~$123
(snapshot prices, before spread and fees)
Same photo. Three different results.
The only difference is who read one sentence.
Reading that sentence is number 2 of the six a prediction market never shows you.
I wrote all six down, with the prompts I use to check them.
So was it a suit?
Test it yourself in 60 seconds.
Open any market, scroll past the price and find the Rules. Look for the one sentence that names who decides the outcome.
If you can't say how you'd lose while being right, you haven't read it yet.
Polymarket: polymarket.com/?r=0ddscent
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Jensen Huang is gone.
He ran Nvidia for 33 years.
It ended in five days.
Nov 8: NYT reports US surveillance suggested a woman close to him was feeding information to Beijing. He admits an affair. The board opens an investigation and says it still has confidence in him.
Nov 9: Trump defends him and says he should stay on as CEO.
Nov 11: NYT reports a second relationship, this time with a senior Nvidia executive who reported directly to him. Stock drops 8.3% after hours.
Nov 12: The board announces his resignation, effective immediately. He leaves the board. CFO Colette Kress becomes interim CEO. Shares fall more than 14% at one point.
Roughly $658 billion in market value disappeared in less than a week.
The company that makes an estimated 90% of the world's advanced AI chips has no permanent CEO.
On Nov 7 we asked 4 AIs the odds he'd be gone before 2029.
Grok: 18%
ChatGPT: 15%
Gemini: 12%
Claude: 6%
Market: 18%
Nobody went above 18%. On Nov 11 Polymarket still gave 16% that he'd be out by year-end.
Nov 13: Wired reports 1,600+ comments on an internal post asking the board to listen to employees. One reads: "bring back THE boss."
Polymarket already has a market on who's next.
Ian Buck leads at 28%. Huang staying on: 10.3%.
Another market gives 29% that he's back at Nvidia by the end of 2027, on $5,740 of volume.
Everyone was too low last time. Is 29% too low or too high?
Jensen Huang started NVIDIA at a Denny’s in 1993. Now he’s worth $150.9 billion.
One night in Taipei, after midnight, a woman at a table of tech guys said she could get Jensen to show up. She bet them.
He came. Leather jacket, two Nvidia people with him, whiskey in hand.
US intelligence now thinks she was working for Beijing.
Full story of that night is in the video.
Her name is Alice Huang. Also goes by Huang Le. Her company, Megaspeed, was set up in Singapore in 2023.
They reportedly bought around $2 billion in Nvidia chips. When journalists went to the offices, they were basically empty.
Late 2024, US inspectors walked into one of their data centers in Malaysia. The chips were still sitting in the boxes.
They watched her for about a year. Photographed her at dinners with Huang. A US intel memo says China’s Ministry of State Security recruited her. The FT says the memo talks about a romantic relationship.
The idea, from what the reports say, was to get close enough to push him on selling more advanced chips to China.
Trump got briefed. Huang never got the defensive one.
His line: “We’ve studied all their deployments of our GPUs and counted every one.”
On November 5, three House committee chairs asked him to come in for a closed-door briefing. They floated November 18.
Kalshi moved. Odds he’s out as CEO before 2029 went from 11% to 18%.
We ran the same question through 4 AIs:
Grok: 18%
ChatGPT: 15%
Gemini: 12%
Claude: 6%
Two of them didn’t even bring up the spy stuff.
So is the market just reacting to a headline, or are the models missing the biggest key-person risk he’s ever faced?
the full Nov 7 round is on the scoreboard: the question, all four answers and the market price that day. it's open on GitHub: 0ddscent.github.io/
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the Nov 7 call with all four answers is logged on the scoreboard, next to every other round. it's open on GitHub: 0ddscent.github.io/
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0ddscent retweeted
what the f*ck. one Claude Code command just told me 35 things in my own setup could be quietly degrading Claude.
80 skills, 8 minutes.
4 of Anthropic's own plugin skills point to slash commands that don't exist.
one of mine was hauling 3,600 characters of dead text into every task.
so I tested the scariest findings instead of trusting them. none of them broke anything.
the real bug was somewhere I never looked: a video I posted yesterday. 700+ people watched it. I didn't notice.
it's all in the video ↓
both commands in the first reply.
would you trust the audit, or test it?
every call and every miss, scored after the fact. the full scoreboard is open on GitHub: 0ddscent.github.io/
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0ddscent retweeted
no f*cking way. Fable 5.2 just designed headphones for me in 3 minutes.
Anthropic says Claude designed three gadgets that worked with zero fixes to the circuitry.
I'm spending $48 to find out if that's true.
I gave Claude Fable 5.2 two prompts and asked for headphones. 3 minutes later I had:
• a Bluetooth module and 30 mm drivers
• 250 mAh battery, USB-C charging, 3.5 mm jack
• a 26-part netlist and a round board that fits in one ear cup
• an ear cup model for 3D printing
Then it listed 14 ways its own design could fail. I didn't ask.
One of them: if the audio return wire touches the metal headband, you get noise or a shutdown.
Nothing is built yet. The photo at the end is a concept.
I'm ordering the parts.
If they play music, they go into a blind test against a $100 pair.
If they don't, I post the dead board.
No lab. No engineers typing "continue".
Place your bets.
Full prompt in the first reply.
Hair dryers.
That's how contractors allegedly softened the glue to peel serial numbers off Nvidia servers headed for China. Thousands of dummy servers filled warehouses to fool auditors. The auditor, per the indictment, was "off-site enjoying entertainment" paid for by another company. (Nvidia isn't accused.)
That's only scandal one.
Scandal two started in a Taipei bar during Computex 2024. Jensen Huang was photographed with Alice Huang, a former exec at Megaspeed. The company reportedly bought $4.8 billion of Nvidia chips in two years. US officials reportedly believe China's spy agency recruited her.
Sunday: he tells staff about the affair.
Tuesday: the board brings in Wachtell and a former top Manhattan prosecutor.
Nov 17: earnings.
Nov 18: closed-door session with three House chairs.
Polymarket jumped to 40% that he's out as CEO by the end of 2027. It was 32% yesterday.
Last week our 4 AIs had it between 6% and 18%. On a longer window. Two of them never even mentioned her.
One export-control veteran says boards should check if the honeytrap went past the CEO.
Who's pricing this right?
Jensen Huang started NVIDIA at a Denny’s in 1993. Now he’s worth $150.9 billion.
One night in Taipei, after midnight, a woman at a table of tech guys said she could get Jensen to show up. She bet them.
He came. Leather jacket, two Nvidia people with him, whiskey in hand.
US intelligence now thinks she was working for Beijing.
Full story of that night is in the video.
Her name is Alice Huang. Also goes by Huang Le. Her company, Megaspeed, was set up in Singapore in 2023.
They reportedly bought around $2 billion in Nvidia chips. When journalists went to the offices, they were basically empty.
Late 2024, US inspectors walked into one of their data centers in Malaysia. The chips were still sitting in the boxes.
They watched her for about a year. Photographed her at dinners with Huang. A US intel memo says China’s Ministry of State Security recruited her. The FT says the memo talks about a romantic relationship.
The idea, from what the reports say, was to get close enough to push him on selling more advanced chips to China.
Trump got briefed. Huang never got the defensive one.
His line: “We’ve studied all their deployments of our GPUs and counted every one.”
On November 5, three House committee chairs asked him to come in for a closed-door briefing. They floated November 18.
Kalshi moved. Odds he’s out as CEO before 2029 went from 11% to 18%.
We ran the same question through 4 AIs:
Grok: 18%
ChatGPT: 15%
Gemini: 12%
Claude: 6%
Two of them didn’t even bring up the spy stuff.
So is the market just reacting to a headline, or are the models missing the biggest key-person risk he’s ever faced?
Anthropic lost $104 billion in 9 months.
Next week it IPOs at up to $1.4 trillion.
Everyone will fight about the loss. Wrong number. Most of it is a paper charge on old convertible notes.
The number I'd watch is $900.9 billion. That's compute they've already signed for, take-or-pay, some of it to 2045. Against an $81B revenue run-rate.
At $78 you pay about 17x revenue, own a slice of the 6.3% that trades, and get no vote. One Class F share controls 50.1%.
My take: it pops on day one anyway. Polymarket has that at 89%, and a float this small makes it easy.
Then everyone will call the pop proof it was cheap. It won't prove anything.
The real test is the first earnings report, when $900B of compute has to start showing up as revenue.
Who's buying on day one?
Sources in the reply below.
Sources:
Price range, share count, valuation: TechCrunch and Fortune, Nov 10
Financials, compute commitments, voting structure: sec-api.io breakdown of the S-1
Odds: Polymarket, checked Nov 12
Revenue multiple is my own math on the fully diluted share count.
The day-one market (my link):
polymarket.com/event/anthrop…
Video: Anthropic
Not investment advice.
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0ddscent retweeted
what the f*ck. Fable 5.2 just helped me beat an insurance company after a car crash
mid-claim. a pickup runs a red light and T-bones me. not my fault. neck injury. $40k claim. their insurer shows up with photos of me at the pharmacy, the clinic, physical therapy. and tells the adjuster I'M faking it
claim review in 3 weeks
Fable said the proof is already on my phone. let's pull it
it went through everything my iPhone logged that day and after. no extra gear, just exports from my own phone
18:42 Crash Detection fires. 911 called automatically
18:44 3 photos of the pickup. GPS + timestamp
18:51 call to my wife, 6 min
then it pulled my Health data:
9,800 steps a day before the crash
1,100 a day after
walking steadiness: "Low"
then Significant Locations for 3 weeks:
my house. the clinic. the pharmacy. physical therapy. that's it
then the Wi-Fi networks my phone saved since the crash:
"Clinic_Guest"
"PT_Center_WiFi"
"Pharmacy_Free_WiFi"
no gym. no bar. nothing else new
then it read the time and GPS on every photo their PI took
every single one: me walking into treatment
they hired a PI to follow me and proved my case for me
the timeline went to my lawyer as Exhibit C
"faking it" got dropped. full $40k paid
adjusters don't win injury claims anymore. Fable does
prompt + how to turn it into a Fable skill below 👇
0ddscent retweeted
what the f*ck. I’ve never actually touched anything in my life.
Fable 5.2 just showed me.
I gave it one zoom animation. It came back with narration, a live distance counter, and 26 halvings from skin down to electron clouds.
Press two fingers together as hard as you can.
A gap of 0.332 nm still stays between them.
Nothing in your body is strong enough to close it.
The electrons push back first.
Watch the number at the bottom.
Around 0:34 it stops and never moves again.
You’ve only ever felt the repulsion.
🤯
Warren Buffett drinks five Cokes a day.
Coca-Cola pays his company about $2.3 million a day.
He told Fortune in 2015: "If I eat 2,700 calories a day, a quarter of that is Coca-Cola." He's been saying versions of that for years.
Here's what the clips leave out.
Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million Coca-Cola shares. It bought them between 1988 and 1994 for roughly $1.3 billion and has never sold a single one.
So one of the most quoted investors alive keeps advertising a stock his company owns. For free.
The math:
2026 dividend: $2.12 a share
Berkshire's cut: $848 million a year, about $2.3 million a day
Per can he drinks: roughly $465,000
The original $1.3 billion comes back in dividends every 19 months
Traders say buy the rumor, sell the news.
He's had 30 years of news and sold nothing.
Would you ever sell a stock that pays you back in full every 19 months?
Hey @grok, be honest. If a crypto founder plugged his own token in every interview for 30 years, we'd call it shilling. Why is it charming when Buffett does it with Coke?
Bet $100 on Anthropic's IPO right now and you're down $39.65 the second you click buy.
Nothing happened. Nobody was wrong. That money just left.
Ken Griffin figured this out at 18. It's how he ended up worth $51 billion.
1986, Harvard freshman. He reads a critical Forbes piece on Home Shopping Network and buys 2 puts, a bet that the stock will fall. It craters. He's right.
When he cashes out, the market maker pays him less than the puts are worth. Griffin took the risk and was right. The middleman took no risk and got paid anyway.
So Griffin stopped being the bettor. He ran his first fund from his dorm room, founded Citadel in 1990, and today Citadel Securities is one of the biggest market makers in America.
He became the middleman.
Here's the trick, live on Polymarket right now. "Anthropic IPO by Nov 18":
Buy YES: 6¢
Sell YES: 4¢
You always buy at the high price and sell at the low one. That 2¢ gap is the spread: $33.33 of every $100 on a 6¢ contract.
Then Polymarket takes a fee on the way in and again on the way out. Another $6.32. That's $39.65 gone before anything happens.
To break even, the price has to climb from 4¢ to about 6.5¢ first. Bet bigger and it gets worse: only about $39 is for sale at 6¢, then it's 7¢, 8¢.
The middleman doesn't care who's right. He just needs you on one side and someone on the other. When big news hits and everyone runs for the exit, the gap gets wider. Exactly when Griffin got clipped.
Being right is optional.
Owning the spread isn't.
We built a free calculator for this. Plug in any market's prices, your bet and the platform, and see exactly what the spread and the fees take. Link in the reply.
Bookmark this before your next bet.
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on the college put trade that made him study the market maker's edge:
"in my college dorm as a freshman, I bought two put contracts in Home Shopping Network, and in some sense I owe my career to good journalism."
"fortunately from the perspective of my career, the stock cratered shortly thereafter."
"When I sold those put contracts, the market maker paid me less than their intrinsic value, and that made me very curious about the pricing of derivatives, because I realized that I got very lucky in buying those puts with an expiration that fell after the stock had cratered, but the market maker made a risk-free profit."
"I was very interested in trying to learn about the pricing of derivatives, and that took me to understanding the pricing of convertible bonds, which is the area that I started in from my college dorm room when I, I began my first hedge fund."
Free spread + fee calculator. Works for any Polymarket or Kalshi market. Enter the buy price, the sell price and your bet, and see what you lose before anything happens:
0ddscent.github.io/spread.ht…