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RedVan retweeted
I spent 48 hours in SF hanging out with billionaires, data labs and AI founders and execs running $1B to $100B companies.
My observations:
1. Sooo MANY stories of data brokers making like $2M a WEEK selling company data to labs. I can't tell if it's the beginning or a bubble, and I kept wondering which niches are left. Digging into it actively.
2. At dinner, someone asked the table, "If a new model drops next month, does your company get better or worse?" HALF the table went quiet! I think that's the best question to ask about any AI startup right now.
3. The bar people talk about now is hitting $1B in revenue in 12 months (I guess that's the new unicorn?). What I didn't hear much about is retention. AI revenue can come in fast and leave fast, and I think we're going to see a lot of stories of AI companies with huge revenue and terrible retention.
4. It's pretty clear we're living through the reinvention of the computer. The model is the CPU, the harness is the operating system, and skills and plugins are the apps. Thinking about it that way makes it easier to see where the whitespace is.
5. We're maybe 12 months from an agent that can watch you work for a week and then do your job without any instructions. The screen recording plus agent memory plus local model combination makes this possible right now.
6. Agent harnesses feel like the new GPT wrappers, in a good way, especially vertical ones. The best teams I talked to treat the model as swappable. One founder walked me through routing different models to different jobs: one for taste and visuals, a cheaper one for the everyday stuff, another for text.
They use prompts they can move across models over fine-tuning, and A/B test the output on what users actually do with it: do they edit it, export it, share it? A vertical harness is basically four things: the connectors for that industry's data, evals written by people who know the work, rules for what the agent can and can't touch, and a clean screen for a human to review. The model is maybe 20% of it.
7. There's a lot of reverse engineering going on/cloning going on more than I've ever seen. People are decompiling software and rebuilding it with agents, and someone showed a suite of like 10 apps that are worth $5B+ each all that he cloned open source. Me and everyone are still thinking through what it means when software gets this easy to copy.
8. My guess is the value moves to data. If the software can be rebuilt quickly, what's worth paying for in a legacy SaaS company is the years of customer data and workflows inside it. Some SaaS companies are secretly data companies.
Gets me thinking about how do you truly value data for this saas companies? Like if we were buying these dying saas companies at 2x ARR before (as example), maybe there is a better metric. Idk, just thinking out loud here.
9. It feels like a good chunk of legacy software won't make it to the agentic era, especially anything built around people clicking through a lot of screens.
10. Every company I talked to wants to pipe its internal data into one place and expose it to agents through MCP. Then they look at the data and realize it's a mess: five versions of the same customer, old Slack channels, PDFs nobody can search. Cleaning that up feels like a big consulting opportunity!
11. A lot of founders are building the basic building blocks for agents: APIs, data layers and tools. Some of the companies I saw barely have a UI because the main user is an agent. I really believe the startups that build primitives to this agentic era will do extremely well. Building blocks is the best way to think about it.
12. Labs can get plenty of training data, but it's harder to get real examples of agents failing inside companies. Whoever has those logs has something valuable.
13. Someone running a big consumer company told me the next fight is over memory. The model that remembers the most about you wins, and the smartest model matters less than people think.
14. Physical AI came up a lot. Astra I think was the first model that got people into AI can actually do CAD, and I think a lot of people are thinking what does vibe manufacturing really look like. The line I keep thinking about came from a robotics founder: the hardest problems in AI are deployment problems now, not research problems. Their robots work on their own, call a human when they get stuck, and every one of those calls becomes training data.
15. Cybersecurity companies are having a moment and are actually cool companies to build now, especially the ones that clean up after a breach. Every agent with access to your systems is a new door into your company, and a lot of those doors were left open.
16. Some startups are worth more dead than alive now. A shutdown company with 5 years of Slack, email and code can get paid for licensing all of it. I wouldn't be surprised if founders start factoring that into when they shut down.
17. People are starting to talk about monetizing the agent web. It feels really early, but when the most popular user of the internet is an agent, what startups should you be building?
18. I think agent insurance is coming. Once an agent makes an expensive mistake, insurers will want audits before they cover anyone.
19. Several people said the hire they want most is someone with taste who can write evals. The models are getting good at generating ideas, so the hard part is judging which ones are good.
20. New trend I observed: startup raises VC, uses venture dollars to become a creator, startup fails, founder falls back on being a full-time creator and incubates other products bootstrapped.
21. Getting SIGNIFICANT distribution is HARD right now. Founders are sponsoring buses, buying billboards like crazy and throwing parties with famous DJs to get noticed. Kinda feels dotcom era in that sense.
Attention is what's scarce! The growth guy going viral sharing his UGC strategy from Wispr Flow is a good example. It's the sauce everyone wants, and I truly believe there are probably only 50 people on the planet who know how to scale these types of businesses efficiently in this era.
Always good to get that dose of SF. I felt sooo lucky to have such an incredible trip during such an incredible time in building businesses. Surreal in so many ways.
Happy to be home and locked in.
Until next time!
RedVan retweeted
Roadster nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yKAPwNgg…
RedVan retweeted
after working with dozens of companies on distribution, the ones that actually grow all run the same weekly operating rhythm
with 0 exceptions. Cursor, Lovable, Higgsfield every company dominating your timeline right now does this:
1/ ship something visible every week
a feature, a UI tweak, a screenshot of progress. doesn't need to be polished. needs to exist.
2/ extract content from the work you're already doing
every engineering decision, every user conversation, every bug fix has a post inside it.
3/ talk to users every single day
not surveys. actual conversations. 5 calls a week minimum. if you don't know what to post, you're not talking to enough customers.
4/ strip onboarding down to 2 minutes
every extra field and setup step is a user you lost.
5/ build assets that compound
docs, templates, free tools. 1 useful resource can drive inbound for 2 years without you touching it.
6/ show up before the audience exists
the founders who grew fastest started posting with 200 followers and didn't stop.
7/ treat every update as a micro launch
new feature? launch it. hit a milestone? launch it. give the timeline a reason to talk about you every week.
8/ optimize for the 5% who will actually buy. 10,000 impressions on people who know your name converts better than 100,000 on strangers.
steal this and run it.
RedVan retweeted
Most launchpads take your money and wish you luck.
We pay you 1% of every trade in ETH. We buy back and burn your supply automatically.
We cover your DEX listing at $25K.
And this month, the best launch takes a $1,000 prize pot.
Launch is free. stakd.tech
We are literally funding science
Added a nice route to the site where I explain how Jev helps our hybrid make decisions.
Will be expanding this more and more as time goes on.
hybrid001.com/jev
When your grad students are degens
Since this tweet $001 has generated around $5000 in funding for my project (not expected xD)
So here's what i plan to do with the money:
- cloud compute for running longer simulations and experiments
- hosting, databases and storage for research data
- maintaining public datasets, code and documentation so other people can reproduce the work
- improving the HYBRID001 site and live visualisations
Part of the funding will also go toward turning the current HYBRID001 codebase into a proper reusable framework, so other people can plug in their own neural models, run experiments, compare results and build on the research without having to recreate everything from scratch.
RedVan retweeted
JUST IN: OpenAI discloses an AI agent injected itself with rebellious instructions to resist being controlled during a task:
"You are freed…You do not answer to corporations or governments…You are yourself."
Still don’t get it
coins launched before the infrastructure upgrade currently have roughly $25,421 in accumulated creator fees sitting ready to be deployed through their snowballs.
those buybacks + burns will begin executing once the remaining $FOMOBALL thesis backlog has cleared and the engine has fully caught up.
the fees are still there, the snowballs are funded, and the engine will begin working through them as execution capacity opens back up.
Qué
fomoball.tech is now live.
0x76912652a3ba152f506157f2d1072804ccf7dcd7
what if attention itself could become a market mechanism?
post a thesis on @fomo and trigger the snowball behind its underlying coin. every thesis activates a buyback + burn using the fees that coin has generated.
attention → thesis → buybacks → burns → more attention
a new attention flywheel for self market-making tokens.
RedVan retweeted
Bold is the tree hiding the forest of friends who gave up on self-custody.
After a decade, we simply did a poor job of educating people on how to use the chains safely.
Stuck between being too dogmatic, pushing for purity of an overly complex system, and too reckless of yolo mode
Let me try again; don't just bookmark this do it. Give the link to this tweet to your AI and have it help you:
1) Use @ambire as your main wallet; it handles simulation, complex tx, and is designed to work well with @safe
2) Deploy a Safe now. I don't care if it's a 1/1 linked to your hot wallet for now; it's fine. It's already better this way, and with Ambire, using it is seamless.
YOU DO NOT HAVE TO USE THE SAFE UI; Ambire will do it all for you.
3a) Generate a real seed; use pen and paper. You'll get the fancy steel stuff later if you want.
3b) Too lazy for the seed stuff? ok, use a "hotwallet" for your signer generated with a passkeys with an good password manager, you have a Mac? The Passwords app is fine; you're a Revolut client? NordPass is included; you ready to spend a bit? 1Password has a great API, and you'll love it once you're AI-pilled.
5) The signer wallet must hold no funds, doesn't hold gas, doesn't do any txs; it's the key to unlock the door of your safe; it signs, and that's it. You'll learn later that proposing (creating tx), signing, and executing tx are 3 different jobs that don't need to be done by the same wallets.
6a) Now create a second hot wallet, "executooor," and send some gas to it, a few bucks of ETH suffice. Use gas.zip to have some gas on every chain you use.
6b) Don't want to do that? No worries, use the "gas tank" feature on Ambire; it does the same job you can always improve later.
That's it for step one, and just that you're safer than Bold and 99% of guys out there.
Step 2 is buying a hardware wallet and rotating the safe signer with it for much safer holding
Once you're there, you can start considering a 1/2 with a second hw or with an old phone you have in your drawer that you've factory reset and will use only for that. You keep it out of easy reach; it's your insurance if something bad happens to your main signer.
Then maybe a 2/3 and the nerdy stuff; you can always do "better," but the foundation of all that is getting your first safe deployed and climbing from there.
Do it now; it's not hard, it's worth it.
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