Sports betting analyst & sceptic. Author of Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. 18+. Please Gamble Responsibly.
Buxton, UK
Joined December 2012
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Today is Monte Carlo Day!
My new book Monte Carlo or Bust: Simple Simulations for Aspiring Sports Bettors goes on general release. Amazon have a 'Look Inside' with the first chapter. Available at many other outlets.
amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASI…
Monday's main leagues data added.
Weekend extra leagues data added.
Midweek fixtures for main and extra leagues available.
Weekend main leagues data added.
16 Monday night games will be added most likely Tuesday morning.
football-data.co.uk/download…
ATP Basel & Vienna, WTA Guangzhou & Tokyo data added.
tennis-data.co.uk/
A reminder that if you need access to a much larger dataset of bookmakers and/or match/player statistics than I cover, particularly if you're a developer, then please take a look the products I'm now supporting: TheStatsAPI and OddsRelay...
There's also a useful article from Value Bet Factory about the sustainability of your EV as odds approach the Pinnacle closing like. Have a read here.
football-data.co.uk/blog/pin…
Weekend main leagues fixtures available.
football-data.co.uk/matches.…
Weekend extra leagues fixtures available.
football-data.co.uk/matches_…
Decentralisation and de-regulation are just fine when crypto narcissists are winning. When you're losing, you want the company to reimburse you, regulators to investigate, courts to intervene and someone to make you whole again.
BREAKING: World's largest crypto exchange Binance hacked with over $5.6 billion stolen:
• $1.45 billion $BTC
• $875 million $ETH
• $234 million $TRX
• $50 million $XAUT
• $1.57 billion $USDT
• $823 million $USDC
• $75 million $WBETH
• $88.5 million $RLUSD
+ $447.5 million additional cryptocurrencies
This is the largest hack in crypto history.
Midweek main leagues data added. 2 more Serie A games play tonight. A heads up that the weekend fixtures will be available earlier Friday morning.
football-data.co.uk/download…
Joseph Buchdahl retweeted
Your logged EV may be far more optimistic than reality.
Across 61,979 value-bet alerts from May 2025 to October 2026, the share of EV reflected in Pinnacle's fair closing price rose with limits:
Under $250: 9.2% EV → 2.8% CLV
$2k–$5k: 3.2% EV → 2.5% CLV
Treat logged EV as an upper bound.
Read the full analysis by @12Xpert football-data.co.uk/blog/pin…
Better for complying with AML rules.
It feels like we're going full circle and heading back the to the old days of minimum trebles.
With respect to bet365, I feel something big is coming. All recent cost cutting measures support the stories about US IPO or sale.
Hearing uproar about bet365 limits across all sports. Some sports are apparently down to just 25% of their previous liability limits.
I guess the new business model football customers staking £100 a week on accas with an average return of just 60p for every £1 staked. That’s £40 a week in expected net losses per customer. Get a few million of those and you’ve got yourself a very profitable business model.
Seems big stakers are no longer wanted, winners or losers. Too much regulation, safer gambling checks and scrutiny.
Wouldn't surprise me if the black market gets even bigger as a result.
Midweek main leagues fixtures.
football-data.co.uk/matches.…
Midweek extra leagues fixtures.
football-data.co.uk/matches_…