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Most people are going to fumble the biggest narrative of the cycle bc they don’t like pumpfun.. some haven’t been around along enough to know what a hate rally looks like.. and likely get rinsed on the sideline.. they’ll jeet every move and forever stay putting the fries in the bag while the rest of the gang ascends to Valhalla.
the funny thing about $BATON is that people are going to spend weeks researching the next big opportunity while completely ignoring one that’s sitting right in front of them.
pump introduces a new pair model.. a community starts organizing around it.. and somehow people are still asking what the narrative is.
bro what exactly are u waiting for.. someone with 100k followers to explain it to u after the chart moves?
obviously none of this guarantees BATON goes up.
but there’s a difference between an opportunity being risky and being too lazy to understand why it might be interesting.
the market has a habit of making things look obvious in hindsight.
the real IQ test is whether u can recognize a thesis before someone else makes it socially acceptable to believe in it.
solana:Hg5Ja55T5wESq4vyFoiVCMeHXtGyVA69X2UHq8hgpump
half the mfs posting conviction theses on CT are just asking the timeline for permission to believe in their own bags.
think about how fucking backwards that is.
some guy buys a coin he barely understands.. writes 800 words about why it’s the next big runner.. then spends the next three hours refreshing Twitter to see if anyone agrees.
100 likes? thesis confirmed.
a big account replies? generational opportunity.
nobody engages? suddenly he’s questioning the fundamentals of something he bought 20 minutes ago.
bro if ur conviction depends on how strangers react to ur tweet, u never had conviction. u had a position u were nervous about.
and i think this explains a ridiculous amount of what happens on CT.
people aren’t always sharing research. they’re outsourcing their conviction.
they want someone with a bigger following to validate their position so they can feel comfortable holding it.
which gets even funnier when u realize the people agreeing with them are probably holding the same coin and looking for exactly the same reassurance.
u end up with an entire timeline of people convincing each other they’re geniuses while nobody has any idea who’s actually making money.
and when the chart turns red, all that shared conviction somehow disappears at the exact same time.
this is why i find social trading so interesting.
i’d rather see what someone actually bought.. how much they risked.. and whether their reasoning holds up than watch 50 people congratulate each other for owning the same coin.
the market doesn’t care how many people agreed with ur thesis.
and unfortunately neither does ur PNL.
imagine spending three hours convincing strangers ur trade was good just so u can hold it for another fifteen minutes lol
pump is building a platform that needs new traders to keep showing up but seems to be optimizing the entire experience for the people who are best at extracting money from them
think about how fucking backwards that is
someone who’s never traded memes opens the app and gets greeted by a wall of 2-minute-old coins, $100k toppers and callouts from people competing to see who can put the biggest X next to some random piece of shit
bro what exactly is this person supposed to do with any of that information?
first we rewarded devs for launching as much garbage as possible through creator rewards
now we’re finding new ways to reward people for convincing everyone else to trade it
congrats on ur 20x call at $15k market cap. how much could someone realistically have bought and sold without destroying the chart? and what happened to the other 40 coins u called?
idgaf about ur best trade if i can’t see how much money u lost finding it
and somehow this is the experience we’re expecting normal people to come into and stick around for
most people have jobs. they’re not going to spend 12 hours a day learning how to avoid getting farmed by bundled insiders and people who’ve been playing new pairs for years
they’re going to lose money, decide crypto is a fucking scam and leave
which is hilarious because then the same people who spent all day farming them will complain that there’s no new liquidity coming into the market
if u actually care about retention, start rewarding good trading instead of whoever can generate the most transactions
give people full track records, real win rates and enough information to figure out whose judgment is worth trusting
u can’t build a sustainable trading platform when the people ur rewarding make their money off the people ur trying to retain
eventually the exit liquidity stops coming back
and then who the fuck are u supposed to trade against?
some of u spent the last two years thinking u were good at trading when ur entire edge was being slightly less retarded than the guy buying ur bags
and now that guy is broke
which is pretty fucking funny because as the dumb money leaves the trenches, the people who were farming it are slowly becoming the dumb money themselves
when there was an endless supply of new buyers, u didn’t need to be particularly good. u just needed to find someone willing to pay more than u did
but as people lose money and leave, that gets harder
the easy exit liquidity disappears and suddenly ur competing against traders who are faster, better informed and have been playing this game longer than u
and the devs with bundled supply still have the same advantages they always did
so where exactly do u think that leaves u?
now we’ve got KOLs showing up like saints sent from the heavens to save the trenches.. promising to bring back the glory days while convincing the same people losing money to buy whatever they’re pushing
because when there’s less exit liquidity left in the market, convincing someone else to become ur exit liquidity gets a lot more valuable
and apparently some of u are still dumb enough to think the guy begging u to buy his bags is doing it out of the kindness of his heart
the funniest part is the people who spent years farming less experienced traders are now getting farmed by people who are better at the exact same game
maybe the trenches aren’t broken. maybe the people dumber than u finally ran out of money and now ur discovering where u actually sit in the food chain.
some of u aren’t getting rugged by the trenches.. ur getting rugged by ur own inability to stop buying shit nobody wants
u keep chasing fresh launches hoping to sneak in before everyone else, then complain when ur the one left holding the bag
meanwhile u write off community coins because u think $5m is too expensive, even though those are the coins with a reason to exist beyond the next pump
then u wonder why nothing survives and every ticker turns into PvP
bro, maybe the market isn’t broken.. maybe ur just playing a game u have no edge in
if all u see is garbage, maybe it’s time to stop shopping in the trash can.
i actually think social trading is one of the more interesting things happening in crypto because it gets u closer to the truth
we have an insane amount of data available and somehow most of what we’re consuming is complete fucking noise
twitter is full of people complaining about the market and the pump app has u scrolling through endless $15k launches and callouts trying to find something that won’t be dead tomorrow
and then we celebrate whoever called the biggest X like that’s supposed to tell us anything about how good they are at trading
congrats on the 50x bro.. what happened to the other 40 coins?
think about how ur tg group works
everyone knows the guy who barely talks but consistently calls bangers early. when he finally posts something people actually pay attention because his track record has earned that respect
meanwhile the guy spamming 50 random tickers a day is probably the most annoying person in the chat
yet somehow we’re building trading apps that put more emphasis on the second guy
this is where the social graph thesis gets interesting to me
we have Bloomberg terminals to evaluate companies.. why aren’t we giving people that same depth of information on the traders they’re following?
i want to know how someone’s portfolio has performed over a year, how often they’re right and how much they lose when they’re wrong
not just their best callout or whatever they made in the last 30 days
and imo this is where the real opportunity in retention comes from
most people don’t want to spend all day gambling on new pairs. they want to find an edge without making crypto their full-time job
whoever makes it easiest to find traders with actual repeatable skill has a much better shot at keeping users than whoever can shove the most coins in their faces
because getting people to trade is easy
getting them to survive long enough to become good at it is the hard part
at what point do we admit that buying random new launches is just volunteering to be someone else’s exit liquidity lol
proxima is reporting over 90k token launches from 4.5k users.
that’s roughly 20 launches for every user on the platform.
obviously that doesn’t mean every user deployed 20 coins.. but think about what that tells u about the scale of this business.
there are people treating token deployment like a fucking assembly line while ur sitting there trying to find the next daily runner in the first 30 seconds of a chart.
these guys have tools to coordinate wallets.. acquire supply early.. automate execution.. and repeat the process all day.
meanwhile ur edge is that u clicked buy before the other retards in the telegram group.
and somehow u think ur playing the same game.
the people making money consistently from launches aren’t necessarily the ones buying them. they’re the ones selling u the infrastructure to create them.
sure, some traders have a real edge here.
but if ur still blindly buying every fresh launch without understanding the distribution or who’s on the other side of ur trade, ur not early.
ur the business model.
imagine spending 12 hours a day trying to outsmart a token factory with a buy button lol
I think a lot of u guys are holding memecoins that will genuinely never see their ATH again
Not because the market is rigged or we’re waiting for the bull run
The entire reason anyone cared about ur coin in the first place is gone
Some random animal went viral. A celebrity tweeted. Something happened in the news
Everyone bought it.. everyone moved on
And now ur sitting there waiting for the exact same people to get excited about the exact same thing again
Lol
This is why I think community coins are so interesting
Most memecoins exist because something got attention
The strongest community coins get attention because they exist
Read that again
One needs the internet to give it another moment. The other has people going out every day trying to create one
Obviously doesn’t mean every community is worth buying
If ur telegram is 400 unemployed guys posting diamond hands while nobody new is showing up, that’s not a community advantage. That’s group therapy
But if people are consistently bringing in new holders and finding ways to make the coin relevant.. that’s a completely different situation
Especially after a 70% drawdown when everyone who was just there for the trade has already left
Anyways. Some coins are down 90% because they’re being overlooked
Others are down 90% because there’s literally nothing left to look at
And a lot of u seem to think those are the same thing
some of u are genuinely better off flipping burgers at this point lol
i’ve been saying this for weeks.
every new launchpad shows up pretending it’s here to save the trenches from pumpfun.. and somehow the revolution always involves getting u to move ur money into their ecosystem.
the funniest part is how little convincing it takes.
go read the replies under the biggest accounts bitching about pumpfun.
half these mfs can’t even explain what pump is doing wrong or how the alternative is supposed to be better.
they’ve just borrowed someone else’s opinion and confused it for their own research.
someone with a big following says pump is evil.. someone else promises to fix it.. and suddenly ur investing in a business model u couldn’t explain if ur life depended on it.
now another supposed savior is falling apart and everyone’s acting surprised.
bro u didn’t invest in a better product. u invested in being angry at the old one.
and that’s what makes this whole thing so fucking stupid.
these projects have figured out they don’t need to earn ur trust through execution when they can borrow it from whoever u already hate.
ur not fighting for the trenches.
ur just letting someone else monetize ur resentment.
imagine getting so emotionally invested in hating pumpfun that u end up funding the exact kind of extraction u spent weeks complaining about lol
Looks like $LAUNCH fully rugged
Dozens of traders with 4-5 figure losses
the funniest thing about $BATON is that it’s sitting right in the middle of the exact market shift everyone’s been begging for.. and half of CT is too busy chasing new launches to understand it.
for months all we’ve heard is that liquidity is too fragmented.. nobody holds anything.. communities can’t build lasting value because capital rotates into the next launch every five minutes.
then pump introduces new pairs that give communities another way to organize around a token and suddenly nobody can connect the fucking dots.
bro you’ve spent six months complaining about the problem and now ur ignoring a potential solution because it doesn’t look like the last thing that made u money lol
the entire point of market consolidation is that attention and liquidity stop being spread equally across thousands of disposable launches.
capital starts concentrating around fewer communities that can actually retain holders.. attract new buyers.. and give people a reason to participate beyond catching the next green candle.
that’s the thesis behind $BATON.
not that every community coin magically becomes valuable because it has a new trading pair.
but that the communities establishing themselves around this infrastructure early could be positioned to benefit if this model gains traction.
and somehow people are still treating it like another random ticker instead of asking what happens if pump successfully changes how communities compete for liquidity and attention.
obviously BATON still has to prove it can sustain demand. none of this guarantees price appreciation.
but if you’ve spent the entire year complaining that the trenches need consolidation and stronger communities, maybe spend ten fucking minutes understanding how that transition could actually happen.
because it’s pretty impressive to correctly identify everything wrong with a market and then completely ignore the mechanisms that might fix it.
solana:Hg5Ja55T5wESq4vyFoiVCMeHXtGyVA69X2UHq8hgpump
CT might be the only place where u can convince thousands of people to risk their money without anyone knowing if you’ve risked a fucking dollar yourself.
some mf writes a beautiful thesis.. gets 100 likes.. everyone calls him a genius.
nobody knows if he even bought the coin or dumped it before u finished reading.
we’ve confused being good at convincing people to take risk with being good at taking risk yourself.
and that’s exactly why i think social trading is going to change CT.
my anon account is closing in on 10k followers and i haven’t needed to convince anyone to buy my bags.
i write a clean thesis.. put my money behind it.. and push the trade so people can judge for themselves.
sometimes i’m right.. sometimes i’m wrong. at least there’s something to judge.
personally i filter for 5k+ trades on the pump app before i bother reading anyone’s thesis.
not because size makes u smart.. but because i want to see who’s actually putting capital behind their opinions.
then i read the reasoning and check their track record.
if i see beta.. crime.. or “this is the next xyz” i’m already gone lol
but the biggest change is how i consume CT now.
when a KOL tweets some life changing conviction play, i don’t immediately read the replies or check how many likes it got.
i check his wallet.
did he actually buy? is he still holding? or is he preaching diamond hands while using his followers as exit liquidity?
the pump app is becoming less of a place where i just discover trades and more of a place where i verify the people making claims on CT.
sure.. one wallet doesn’t tell the whole story.
but i’d rather start with actual transactions than take another mf’s conviction essay at face value.
that’s the real thesis behind social trading.
not copy trading.. not blindly following whales.
turning trading behavior into a credibility signal.
CT tells u what someone wants u to believe.
social trading gives u a way to check whether their actions back it up.
shit.. pump should let people push their trades and theses straight to Twitter with a link to the position.
would make it a lot easier to see who’s actually in the game and who’s been commentating from the sidelines this entire time lol
Sent from my Pumpfun App
Not sure how the pump call out algo works but it’s all just dog shit sub $20k shitters.. feel like people hawk eye the app more if it was actually quality coins that spiked volume or smth.. would be nice if we were able to save the filters so we don’t need to add them every time we open the app.
This
Imagine holding almost exclusively one coin for the Squad Competition!
BATONARMY and BATONARMY2 are doing exactly that, holding almost $1,000,000 worth of $baton combined!
pumpfun spent years building one of the most valuable things in crypto.. an audience of people who actually trade.
and i think people are missing what they’re doing with it now.
roughly 78% of newly traded tokens on solana over the past 11 months originated on pumpfun.
they’ve already captured an enormous share of the launch market. squeezing out another few percent isn’t nearly as interesting as finding more ways to monetize the traders they already have.
look at the fee structure.
pump earns 0.95% in protocol fees on bonding-curve trades.
but eligible trades through its own app can carry another 0.40–0.45% platform fee.
and on supported EVM transactions, there’s potentially another 0.10–0.15% transaction fee.
which means pump can earn roughly 0.50–0.60% on eligible EVM trades through its app without ever launching the token being traded.
now pump bridge and EVM limit orders start making a lot more sense.
they’re not just adding chains because multichain sounds bullish.
they’re giving their existing users more markets to trade while creating additional ways to collect fees from that activity.
and achievements, referrals and squads fit the same strategy.
bring more traders into the app.. give them more reasons to stay.. and make more of their trading activity happen through pump.
the interesting part is pump doesn’t need solana launch volume to keep growing at the same rate if it can capture meaningful trading activity elsewhere.
solana launches built the audience.
the app is how they monetize it across a much bigger market.
and cross-chain trading is how they stop depending on one chain to keep that audience busy.
everyone’s still arguing about who owns the solana launchpad market.
pump might already be moving on to a much bigger one.
This
Replying to @json1444
But which launchpad is the most extractive? Surely Pumpfun?
Here's the post-bonding protocol fees for recently trending launchpads:
Pumpfun: 0.05%
Stonkfun: 1%
Pons: 0.3%
Finally, it's worth noting that Pumpfun NEEDS runners if they want to survive. If Pumpfun forces the market to compress into lower market cap tokens, they will inevitably die.
Pumpfun needs more runners and ultimately more success cases across coins & traders in order for new users to find the ecosystem attractive enough to join it.
Billion dollar runners WILL return.










