
Perps & Prediction Markets nerd Mentor at @parimatch my home @perphubdotcom
Joined February 2023
- Tweets5.4K
- Following408
- Followers888
- Likes37.3K
1saevv ๐๐ retweeted
83โ87 for GTA VI? Insider Gaming is betting on a modest score
On the Insider Gaming podcast, Tom Henderson and other journalists suggested that GTA VIโs average critic score could land in the 83โ87 range. Itโs a bold take, since most people believe the new GTA will score near the top of the scale. Who will end up being right? I wanted to look into it myself
I checked out the Metacritic market at @parimatch . Hereโs how it stands:
90+ - 100%
92+ - 97%
94+ - 94%
96+ - 80%
97+ - 59%
98+ - 24%
Trading volume is $59.2K. These figures are current, so they may shift
For example, for 94+ to hit, critics need to give the game a score of at least 94. Metascore is calculated on Metacritic using the default platform, seven days after release, at 10:00 ET. User scores arenโt counted, and if GTA VI doesnโt come out by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No." Before taking part, itโs worth opening the Rules on the market page and checking all the details
Iโm still expecting GTA VI to score highly. It was the same with GTA V before release, people worried about its technical condition and criticized Rockstarโs familiar formula. But in the end, there were hardly any low scores, and its Metascore was high. Rockstar has a strong reputation, so an 83โ87 prediction seems far too modest to me.
44.6% of Pythโs gross new ARR in October came from existing customers expanding their subscriptions
Thatโs a pretty interesting number from the latest @PythNetwork report
Companies arenโt just signing up for Pyth data. Some are choosing to spend more on it over time
Pyth also added $2.17M in net new ARR and reached 332 paying accounts
October brought new US Treasury indices, corporate action data for US stocks, and better tools for AI agents to access market data
Pyth keeps adding products that go beyond crypto, while its subscription business continues to grow
Thereโs still a lot to build, but the progress over the past few months has been pretty consistent
One delta-neutral strategy, two campaigns with a combined prize pool of up to $25,000, Lighter Points, and a potential Polymarket Perps airdrop
While everyone is waiting for the @extendedapp airdrop, thereโs already another farming opportunity on @vooi_io, but first, letโs wrap up the Extended story
The team has officially announced the end of the Xpoints program, with a final conversion rate of 1 Xpoint = 4.2857 XTEN and 300 million XTEN allocated to the community
According to Extendedโs BD, TGE is scheduled for November, while traders on @Poly_Perps are pricing in a 71% probability of FDV exceeding $150 million
I personally farmed Extended through @vooi_io with a 15% boost, congrats to everyone who participated, weโve finally made it
But you know me, I couldnโt just leave without sharing another potential gem
There are currently two campaigns running on VOOI
The first is @Lighter_xyz ร @RobinhoodApp , where you can farm Lighter Points while competing for a prize pool of up to $10,000
The second is Polymarket Perps, featuring a prize pool of up to $15,000, where every participant who meets the minimum requirements is eligible to receive a share of the rewards
And you can combine both campaigns into a single delta-neutral strategy
Open opposing positions on Lighter and Polymarket Perps, generate trading volume on both platforms simultaneously, farm Lighter Points, and build activity on Polymarket Perps ahead of a potential future airdrop
Why @vooi_io ? VOOI is a perpetual trading aggregator that lets you trade across leading perp DEXs and centralized exchanges through a single interface
Instead of constantly switching between platforms, you can manage your positions in one place, making it especially convenient for delta-neutral strategies
The result is one trading setup that gives you access to two campaigns with a combined prize pool of up to $25,000, Lighter Points farming, and additional Polymarket Perps activity that could potentially count toward a future airdrop
I use VOOI myself, and Iโll leave my referral link below, which gives you trading rebates, an extra advantage when farming volume
- ultra.vooi.io/i/S9UDFLJC
Extended is approaching the finish line, and personally, Iโd be looking closely at Lighter ร Polymarket Perps while both campaigns are still live
Thatโs all I have to say
GTA VI is out on november 19 and the loudest argument right now isn't the map, it's when PC players get it
rockstar lists PS5 and xbox series x|s. PC has no date at all
@parimatch has a predictions market on exactly this and the way it's set up is actually smart
it's not one bet, it's 4 deadlines and each one is its own yes/no
> by dec 31 2026
> by mar 31 2027
> by jun 30 2027
> by dec 31 2027
prices are in cents, so the price is basically the odds the crowd gives it. when i checked, yes was:
> dec 31 2026: 9.5ยข
> mar 31 2027: 22.5ยข
> jun 30 2027: 72.5ยข
> dec 31 2027: 87.5ยข
the funny part is the jump. march is a 23% shot, june is 73%. so the crowd is pretty sure PC drops somewhere between april and june 2027
and june is where the money sits too, around 4.3k USDC traded on that line alone
rules are simple. it only counts if a full windows PC version goes on sale on steam, epic or the rockstar launcher by 11:59 PM ET on that date. betas, tech tests and leaked builds don't count, and it settles the moment the game drops
for context GTA V took about a year and a half to hit PC, RDR2 about a year
my PC friend wants yes on dec 31 2026. 9.5ยข for pure copium, honestly a fair price
if you've got a take on rockstar's timing, you can put it on the line here parimatch.com/predictions/evโฆ
๐ค Paid partnership
October rewards for @parimatch Contributors have been sent out, so now is a good time to join the program and start working toward November rewards
Join here: t.me/ParimatchContributorsBoโฆ
Thereโs also a new bonus this month: Contributor role holders get 2x points for accepted submissions
A quick reminder of how scoring works:
โข Quality: 0โ10 points
โข Reach: 0โ10 points
โข With the 2x multiplier, you can earn up to 40 points per submission
Rewards are distributed proportionally based on accepted submissions and their points. The multiplier doubles your weight in the mission pool, not your final payout
A few requirements to keep in mind:
โข Your X account must have a verification checkmark
โข Posts need more than 200 views to be accepted
โข Originality, quality and genuine engagement matter. Fake metrics or low-effort content can lead to disqualification
Also, make sure your EVM wallet in the Telegram bot is up to date. Payouts are made in USDT (ERC20) on Ethereum
Want to earn rewards for November? Nowโs a good time to join and start contributing
Everton decided to make things interesting before getting the job done
Coventry scored first, but Barry needed just four minutes to turn the scoreline around with a quick brace
Dewsbury-Hall added the third in the 81st minute, putting an end to any hopes of a Coventry comeback
Final score 3-1
My @parimatch ticket at 1.68 is green
Three wins in a row. Let's keep this going
Register on Parimatch with promo code Wartask and get access to bonus offers on your first five deposits, adding up to 750%
global-pm.link/?serial=61377โฆ
Just remember, all bonuses come with a 30x wagering requirement
Japanese equities are an important part of global markets, with companies like Toyota, Sony, and Nintendo attracting interest well beyond Japan
@PythNetwork now provides real-time price feeds for 21 Japanese equities through Pyth Pro, making this market data available to applications and financial platforms integrating its infrastructure
The addition expands Pyth Proโs equity coverage beyond its existing markets and gives developers access to another set of widely followed stocks through the same data service
spent my morning making fake money on @parimatch so you don't have to lose real money not understanding it
the game is called Pulse. 60 second rounds, BTC up or down
here's the whole thing:
> round opens at the real BTC price, that's your strike (the dashed line)
> you tap โฒ or โผ. each button shows the max multiplier you can lock in on that side, and it changes live
> you pick risk: 2x, 5x or 10x
> higher risk = your win climbs faster, but the burn point moves closer. burn point is how far price can go against you before the bet dies early
> you can cash out any second at the current multiplier, or hold till the timer hits zero
> if it burns, the stake is gone. no partial refund
now the part i didn't expect
rule 07 says only the opening price is real BTC. after that the chart follows an RNG path that's locked before anyone bets. the hash gets published in advance and you can check it yourself in the Provably Fair tab
so your "TA" on a 60 second candle is doing absolutely nothing lmao
it's not trading. it's picking a direction and deciding how close you want the cliff
honestly kind of respect that they wrote it down instead of letting people think they're scalping BTC
ran it in demo mode first, which is what i'd tell anyone to do. rules are in the... menu at the top right if you want to check every line i said, it's under Crypto Games
๐ค Paid partnership
1saevv ๐๐ retweeted
powered by @parimatch
All these bets were provided in advance on Discord
Join us discord.gg/parimatch
Contributors are not your free marketing department
I believe contributors should get paid for their work. In every crypto project
A few years ago, things were different
You could spend months writing threads, creating designs, and helping communities grow without getting paid
But back then, a good airdrop could reward you for all that time and effort
Today, people are still doing the same work, spending months or even years contributing, with no guarantee theyโll ever get anything in return
And weโve already seen where this leads
Projects that spent years building are shutting down, leaving behind contributors who dedicated hundreds or even thousands of hours to them
Some spent almost their entire time in crypto supporting a single project
And what did they get in the end?
Maybe a few connections and some experience
I donโt think this should be normal
Contributors deserve more than promises of a future airdrop
And @parimatch is already showing what a different model can look like
Every contributor has their own strengths and approach to creating content
Some focus on visuals and design, others are better at writing detailed guides, sharing research, explaining complex topics, or creating content that brings people together
Everyone should have the opportunity to use their skills, develop their own style, and bring something valuable to the project
You should be able to do what you enjoy, improve your skills, build your reputation, and grow alongside the project
But your time and effort should also be rewarded
At Parimatch, contributors receive monthly payments for their work, along with recognition, visibility, and opportunities to grow
The post Iโm quoting is a good example of that
No waiting years for a token that might never come. No wondering whether hundreds of hours of work will ever pay off
This is what contributing should look like in 2026. And in the years ahead
Parimatch Contributors: ~$420 in a month
Here's how much I earned just in October by participating in the @parimatch Contributors Program and various promotions and giveaways.
Detailed revenue breakdown:
โข Content creation (X Posts): $325.85
โข Halloween Event: $85 ($50 for winning a game + $35 for 2nd place in the post contest)
โข Social Giveaway โ $10 (like, repost, comment)
The best part is that content creation brings in the bulk of the money. You write normal posts, do reviews, take part in activities - and it actually pays well. Not a one-time thing, but steady rewards for real work.
If you're interested in earning by creating content for Parimatch, join the Contributors program: t.me/ParimatchContributorsBoโฆ
If you have any questions, feel free to message me - I'll help you join and start earning.
Kalshi has launched contracts on its KPOW Midterms index, with @PythNetwork responsible for calculating and publishing the values used to settle them
The index combines 13 markets tied to the 2026 US midterm elections. It ranges from -50 to +50 and reflects the market's weighted expectations for Republican and Democratic victories
Every 30 seconds, Pyth calculates a new index value using public trade data from Kalshi
The methodology includes safeguards against sudden price movements. If a trade deviates by more than $0.05 from the last accepted price, it isn't immediately included in the calculation. The move needs additional confirmation before being accepted
Contract settlement typically uses a 15-minute time-weighted average of the index rather than its value at a single point in time
Election results, media projections, and official declarations of winners don't directly change contract values. Settlement is tied to the index values published by Pyth. If trading stops in an individual market, its last accepted price remains part of the calculation
In its October 27 filing with the CFTC, Kalshi identifies Pyth as the index's Source Agency. Kalshi operates the exchange and underlying markets, while Pyth independently calculates and publishes the index used to determine contract settlement values
This implementation adds to Pyth's broader work with traditional financial market data. Pyth Pro already covers equities, commodities, and futures, while KPOW Midterms brings that data infrastructure into index contracts tied to political events
The structure is straightforward: an independent data provider calculates an index according to a predefined methodology, and a regulated exchange uses the published values to settle its contracts
๐ค Made with AI
$6.34 billion in crypto assets impacted by the Binance security incident
that number is honestly difficult to process
according to Binance's November 3 update, around $2.85 billion had been frozen or intercepted, and the exchange says it will cover the financial impact for its users
it got me thinking about something much more practical
not every dollar in your account needs to be available for your next bet
that's why i wanted to try out Vault on @parimatch
you can find it under Account โ Vault, right below Deposit and Withdraw
it gives you a separate balance inside your Parimatch account
once your funds have met the applicable wagering requirements, you can move money from your cash balance into Vault with the Top up tab
and when you want to use it again, the Withdraw tab transfers it back to your regular balance
simple idea, but a useful habit: keep your playing budget separate from the money you want to set aside
Vault doesn't replace proper security practices โ it gives you a clearer way to manage your balance
check it out: parimatch.com/
account โ vault
source: binance.com/en/square/post/3โฆ
๐ค Paid partnership
Not every bit of money in your betting account needs to stay available for the next bet
Thatโs why I find the Vault feature on @parimatch useful. It gives you a separate balance inside your account where you can keep eligible funds you don't plan to use for betting
Had a good session and want to set some money aside? Move it to the Vault instead of leaving it in your main balance
You can transfer funds back whenever you need them. Both operations happen directly inside your account
A simple feature, but a useful way to keep your betting balance organized
Check it out: parimatch.now/en/my-account
The classic experience of backing Real Madrid
They dominate possession, create chances, concede twice and still need a 92nd-minute goal to avoid dropping points
Bellingham and Mbappรฉ did their part, but Valverde was the one who finally delivered the winning goal
AEK 2-3 Real Madrid
My @parimatch bet at 1.22 is settled
A little more stress than expected, but a win is a win
1saevv ๐๐ retweeted
Wintermute solana:HZ1JovNiVvGrGNiiYvEozEVgZ58xaU3RKwX8eACQBCt3 holdings up 6x over the past 30 days
probably nothing
check it out at pyth.scptech.xyz/growth
October was a busy month for @PythNetwork
A few highlights from the latest Douro Labs report:
โข $13.67M ARR (+18.9% MoM)
โข 4,451 Pyth Terminal signups (+37%)
โข 332 paying accounts
โข 3,927 symbols in the Pyth Pro catalog
And it's not just the user base that's growing. Pyth is expanding its products too
October brought corporate action data for US equities, US Treasury yield curve indices, and new Pyth Pro capabilities for AI agents
Pyth used to be known mainly as an oracle for DeFi. Now its data can be used for much more, from stock market analysis to automated financial research
And with subscription revenue growing, there's clearly demand for what they're building
Source: Pyth October 2026 Report - Douro Labs
๐ค Made with AI
Today might be the end of my year-long comeback
For the first time in over a year, Iโm this close to fully recovering my @Polymarket losses and finally getting back in profit
If it happens, Iโm officially putting myself in the 0.0001% of Polymarket traders who actually made it out of the red
One last prediction could put me back in profit
Follow it here:
polymarket.com/@1saevv?r=1saโฆ
1saevv ๐๐ retweeted
$6.3 billion, thatโs binance estimate
their preliminary investigation pointed to a compromised engineerโs laptop, access to the withdrawal service
number is huge, the entry point is ordinary, on most platforms everything sits in one balance too
@parimatch has vault - a separate balance inside the account for money you donโt want to touch
log in -> account -> vault (under deposit and withdraw)
top up moves fully wagered cash into it
withdraw brings it back as an internal transfer, not to an external wallet, you can just set part of a win aside so it isnโt staring at you at night
check out the reply for guide with links!
Donโt want to lose your crypto? Then keep it safe in Vault from PARIMATCH ๐
Itโs a separate balance for your winnings and savings for the future. Transfer funds from your main balance and withdraw them in just a few clicks whenever you need
โ
Fast
โ
Secure
โ
Convenient
Look for Vault in your Account, below the Deposit and Withdraw buttons. In light of recent events, we recommend to get started right away ๐
Sleep, bet and play with peace of mind. Hackers shall not pass ๐
3 nights. 3 doors. And somehow, door #2 was cursed every single time ๐ป
Remember how I became a Ghost on the first night of @Parimatch's Halloween event?
Well, I decided to stick with my favorite number
Every night, I voted for door #2, hoping to trap the remaining Alive players
And guess what?
~> Night 1: 12 players became Ghosts
~> Night 2: 3 more joined us
~> Night 3: 1 final player became a Ghost
All because of door #2
I still can't believe the same door was cursed three nights in a row
What started as a bad decision turned into a pretty good strategy
Now the doors are closed, and 16 players have joined the Ghost side
But here's the interesting part
Both Alive players and Ghosts still have a chance to win prizes if they meet the event requirements
So maybe my favorite number wasn't so unlucky after all
Thanks to @Parimatch for these three fun nights!
#ParimatchAfterDark
I'm officially a Ghost ๐ป
There were 3 doors, and I had to choose just one
I went with door โ2 because 2 has always been my favorite number
Well, that turned out to be a mistake
Instead of staying Alive, I walked straight into a trap and became a Ghost
But here's the interesting part
My game wasn't over. I just switched sides
Now, instead of trying to survive, my job is to help set traps for the remaining Alive players
Tonight was the final night of @Parimatch's Halloween event, and we'll soon find out who made it through all three nights
But there's a twist
Both Alive players and Ghosts have a chance to win prizes
So maybe picking door #2 wasn't such a bad decision after all.
Thanks to @Parimatch for this fun Halloween experience!
#ParimatchAfterDark
222,723 prediction-market contracts settled using @PythNetwork data over the last 30 days
Chainlink: 93,862
Thatโs ~2.4x across @Kalshi and @Polymarket from Sep 28 to Oct 27
On Kalshi alone, 98 series use Pyth as the settlement source, including hourly markets for platinum, palladium, WTI, silver and gold
Pyth has now settled 400,000+ prediction-market contracts across the two venues
just downloaded @Nika_Finance on my iphone
pretty cool that i can open it anytime and see whoโs winning on perps and prediction markets in real time
makes it really easy to find interesting traders and keep an eye on what theyโre doing
all from my phone
The world moves fast. Now you can too.
Introducing Nika:
โข Trade stocks, crypto, and more 24/7
โข Earn yield on your assets
โข Trade prediction markets
โข Discover top traders and see their moves
Download Nika on iOS & Android: app.nika.finance/download





























