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Mainer🌲 Wood & Timber Products 🏘️ Macro tourist 📊 Opinions are my own. @Fastmarkets.

Boston, MA via Maine
Joined April 2012
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Time to bet Nate Silver again on his fake assessments re the US Senate races in Ohio Texas Michigan Iowa Alaska and Kansas.
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After the deviations of the pandemic, prime-age employment and nominal wage growth are right back to their pre-pandemic relationship.
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Two weeks later … yields still tracking the AI trade
It’s all one trade, AI or bust 👇 Including yields btw (hopefully this week puts to bed the notion that yields were going up just because of oil)
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Didn't catch much attention, but seems noteworthy that new home sales in September remained fine despite a lot of leading indicators nosediving. MoS also not ratcheting higher. Let's see what the data shows us in Q4 though, still early.
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Well deserved. The team plays the game the right way. Fun team to watch.
THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS ARE WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS
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This seems so obvious. Pretty surprised they ate doing this tbqh
Lowering the # of "live" Fed meetings per year means the Fed is either: 1. Liable to fall further behind the curve b/c it will move too slow, or 2. Gonna have to be more open to 50bp+ moves than before This comes as the Fed intentionally guided hikes to a slower quarterly pace
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What an ugly, undeserving stadium for a World Series clincher.
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Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. are moving quickly, multiple sources have told Global News but those same sources were also skeptical a deal with the Trump administration could be reached before the midterms. The Canadian side believes the political pressure on Trump from the Senate races in Michigan and Maine, does gives Canada an opportunity to finalize a deal that alluded them in August. To get a deal Canada would agree to, the U.S. would need to conceded on previous sticking points, such as limiting what Canada could put in trade deals with other countries and detailing exactly what US auto, steel and aluminum tariffs would apply to #cdnpoli
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Hmmmm...
US AND CANADA NEGOTIATE RELIEF FROM STEEL AND AUTO TARIFFS The US and Canada are reportedly negotiating a deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and automobiles, potentially before the November 3 midterm elections. Talks focus on reducing steel tariffs of up to 50% and 25% auto tariffs, although Washington is reportedly seeking additional Canadian concessions. Sources suggest a limited agreement could emerge quickly, but no deal has been finalized. Related stocks: $GM $F $STLA $CLF
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*LULA WINS BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, DATAFOLHA PROJECTS
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Huh...quite the swing. Guess Polymarket isn't dialed into Brazilian politics.
BREAKING: Lula overtakes Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election odds, now favored to hold on to power. 70% chance. 🔗 polymarket.com/r/Brazil26
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Not much for forest products shout-outs, but "more fiber on the trucks" did get slipped in here with energy and mining.
Conservative Premier Designate Lorne Doerkson's victory in BC is a political earthquake.
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👀
Global News is projecting the Conservatives will form a majority government in British Columbia #cdnpoli
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And yet...
Despite Iran’s efforts to disrupt energy shipments, oil exports from the Persian Gulf are roaring back and have surpassed pre-conflict levels. The message is clear: Iran’s threats have failed to stop the flow of energy to global markets.
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Seems like one of many reasons why such wide latitude over tariffs by the executive branch is a bad idea. Tariffs inherently encourage cronyism when not handled by Congress. Not to mention make it impossible to operate a business.
SCOOP: Trump expected to remove some tariffs on Canada in bid to help Sen. Susan Collins, other Repubs. Reductions on agriculture and forestry products expected, could be balanced out with higher/new levies on other goods. Could happen today, though timing could slip
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That's a touchdown by Maye.
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Call me a contrarian, although I don't love the prospects for home builders rn, looking at the affordability metrics, a new home still provides better value than the resale market at the moment. New home sales might not nose dive like pending home sales or mortgage applications.
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2x4caster retweeted
Stunning. Pending home sales in the US fell to an all-time low in September
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Late to the game this morning, just arrived in Montreal. Tough housing report. Probably some noise, particularly on the multi permits, but sort of feels like we are starting to seem some cracks in activity from this move in mortgage rates on top of other headwinds for builders.
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