Zenolytics

Everything that can and will happen this coming week of trading is purely a setup for next week. Next week is the hook for all of October. Whether the break is higher or lower, the market is unlikely to let investors wait for earnings and the FOMC before making its move. Earnings and the Fed will simply be an accelerant for whatever trend develops next week.

Knew the probability of the type of move we saw today was unusually high, which is why I went from years long bull to bear in recent months. I was, however, surprised by the timing of this move today. There is valuable information in that timing. Today shouldn't have happened when it did. Will detail further tonight.

If it does break it has to be sizable. Becoming increasingly apparent that the market is begging for a reset. Your typical 10-20 percent down but I think the story could be how fast it happens. Something is definitely off here. I can't pinpoint it but can certainly feel it. And after all these years, I've learned to trust my discomfort when it shows up.

Not sure. It will be an incredibly violent quick correction, bordering on a crash. Or It will be a prolonged, painful correction bordering on a bear market. "Bordering" may not be necessary language in either case, actually.

Natural downside target for MU.

@citrini Research Calls Peak On AI Infrastructure Spending

Given that growth names are our primary investment vehicle, avoiding this debacle as much as possible over the past few months has been a worthy effort. What this level of selling means for the long term is difficult to say. There are a lot of names that aren't coming back from this. Terminal patterns are everywhere. There are other names that are beginning to present opportunity, while being under accumulation. Obvious rotation taking place to future leaders. For the remainder of 2026, this remains a market that is best approached week by week, and at times, day by day.

Have a specific timeframe for the low. Also, may be calling a slight audible for the week versus the roadmap presented in Sunday's Turning Points. Will have a new note out prior to the close today.

Everything that can and will happen this coming week of trading is purely a setup for next week. Next week is the hook for all of October. Whether the break is higher or lower, the market is unlikely to let investors wait for earnings and the FOMC before making its move. Earnings and the Fed will simply be an accelerant for whatever trend develops next week.

Used to consider private equity names like BX and KKR leading indicators for both the economy and the markets. The rate environment and the economy’s increasing concentration in AI have distorted their signaling value to a great extent. There is, however, no known universe where BX down 28% for the year and KKR down 31%, with neither showing any signs of a reversal, are anything other than concerning.

Took profits in gold in late August. Now the focus shifts to the downside target shown in the chart below. Attached is the August 30 edition of Turning Points, laying out the signal that prompted our exit.

Many semis have corrected 30-40 percent already while software, as one example, is up 40% from its lows. Hardware can correct substantially with capital rotating to other sectors. Likely creates a sideways at best scenario for the broader indices, however.

Amazing how few know what capitulation looks like. This isn't capitulation. This is painful annoyance, sprinkled with intermittent fear.

Would be ironic if all the talk about fantastic breadth took place at a significant market top, right before a major correction. One of the most useless technical indicators around, reserved almost exclusively for those who do not know how to properly read price.