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Hong Kong’s High Court sentenced activist Joshua Wong to 10 years in prison on Nov. 5 for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces under the national security law. A guilty plea reduced a higher starting term. He is already serving a separate national-security sentence. Further national-security prosecutions and long sentences for democracy activists are likely. From this morning’s Early Bird™ Intelligence Brief.

No new U.S. strike round was reported overnight. The Nov. 2 Qeshm Island strike remains the latest confirmed U.S. action. A British maritime agency confirmed a tanker was hit by two unidentified projectiles off Qatar. Separate Iranian claims that multiple tankers hit mines or burned in Hormuz remain unverified. The Revolutionary Guard also says it downed a U.S. MQ-1 over Qeshm and a U.S. MQ-9 over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has not confirmed either loss. After the midterms, President Trump again played down any immediate strike order. Qatar is still mediating. Forces stay ready. A confirmed crew death at sea, or a missed mediation deadline, would change that picture. From this morning’s Early Bird™ Intelligence Brief.

A Russian strike on a school used as an aid center in Komyshuvakha, in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, has left at least 43 people dead. As of Nov. 5, about 30 people were still feared under the rubble. Kyiv also reported power and water outages after overnight attacks on the capital. Further strikes on cities and civilian sites are likely as winter approaches, with more outages and search-and-rescue work ahead. From this morning’s Early Bird™ Intelligence Brief.

Iran-linked ships have been loitering over undersea internet cables in the Gulf of Oman. Tracking data show at least four vessels slowed, looped, or went dark over cable routes between Oct. 5 and 28. Three were U.S.-sanctioned tankers. One vanished from tracking for 86 hours over two cable corridors, then reappeared about nine miles away. In those same weeks, Iranian officials warned that regional cables could be attacked if the war resumes, and that Tehran has plans to target the lines and block repairs. This looks like surveying routes or holding a sabotage option, not a cable already cut. No service break has been reported. Watch those ships, fresh loitering over the Oman corridors, and any confirmed cable fault. From this morning’s Early Bird™ Intelligence Brief.

The Sky Holds Tuesday night brought plenty of hand-wringing, and the rest of the week will bring more. Some are already predicting a packed Supreme Court, one impeachment after another, prosecutions for anyone who backed the wrong candidate, and two years of a country too frightened to move. I understand the frustration. But I also recognize that many of the loudest voices are coming from people too young to have experienced this kind of political turmoil before. For them, this is their first ride on the roller coaster. For me, it isn’t. I heard the same forecasts when I was a little kid from grown-ups when Republicans were crushed in the 1974 mid-terms. Then as an adult when Bill Clinton won in 1992, and again when Barack Obama won in 2008. I heard them after midterms that went badly for one party or the other. Republicans lost both chambers in 2006 and the House again in 2018, and each time someone was sure the republic would not make it to the next Christmas. It did. The sky didn't fall, the hysteria never lived up to the hype, and the people selling the panic moved on to the next crisis. Election night wasn’t pretty and the defeats across the board were real and will have real consequences. We are on a slippery slope and we must course correct before we end up like England, but there is never a time to panic, and this week is no exception. Calm is contagious. The checks that matter are still where they have always been. Any new Supreme Court justice still needs a nomination from the President, and adding seats to the Court takes a law the President can veto. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of both chambers: 290 votes in the House if every member votes, and 67 in the Senate. The new majority holds 54 Senate seats, 13 short, so a veto still stands. Impeachment takes a simple House majority, while removal takes two-thirds of the Senate, a bar that has never once been cleared against a president. Let the last races settle and check the math yourself. Meanwhile, the man in the Oval Office has no more midterms to worry about. The Constitution won't let him run again, so the next two years will be about what he can do with the powers of the office, not about the next campaign, his or anyone else's. (On that note, whomever is running Iran this week might want to start browsing properties in the Cayman Islands.) If Tuesday night has you distressed, understand a few things. Power isn't a contest of red flags and blue flags. It is exercised above, through and around Congress: in the executive branch, the courts, the statehouses, the county commission and the school board down the street. The path forward lies in knowing where the levers of power really are, not simply in voting harder for a party label. Nothing is stopping any of us from doing our part to safeguard our Constitutional Republic. Go to the meeting, read the bill, call the office, serve on the jury, run for the seat nobody else wants. The next two years will test this country, the way every two years do. The checks still stand, and they will hold only if people show up, stay engaged and refuse to surrender the field. Turn off the doom, get some sleep and get back to work. Psalm 20:7 reminds us: "Some trust in chariots, and some in horses; But we will remember the name of the LORD our God."

THE LEAR JET CRASH THE REQUEST TO CLIMB: Nine people, two crew members and seven passengers, died Nov. 1 when a Learjet 60, tail number N722BD, fell from cruising altitude onto South Military Trail near Greenacres, Fla., a little over two hours into a flight from Austin to the Bahamas. Checking in with Miami Center at 35,000 feet, the crew reported moderate turbulence moving the jet up and down as much as 700 feet, plus light clear ice the pilot called manageable. Outside air temperature was about minus 53 degrees Fahrenheit. Once precipitation began, the crew asked to climb to 37,000 feet for a smoother ride, and the controller approved. Meteorologists say a nearby thunderstorm was building fast, with tops near 48,000 feet. Tracking data show the jet gained only about 500 feet before it began to fall. THE COFFIN CORNER: Climbing out of rough air is routine, although thin air at that height leaves a jet a narrow band of safe speeds. Too slow, and the wing stops holding the airplane up; too fast, and shock waves form on the wing. The band narrows as altitude increases, and pilots call the point where the limits meet the coffin corner. The Learjet 60 normally cruises near Mach 0.76, and its maximum operating speed of Mach 0.81 is reduced to Mach 0.78 at 37,000 feet and above. Turbulence can push airspeed across that line in seconds. WHAT THE CREW REPORTED: Seconds into the climb, ADS-B data show groundspeed jumping from 437 to about 505 knots as the jet dropped at nearly 20,000 feet per minute. The pilot declared a mayday and radioed, "We are in an overspeed condition, descending 20,000 feet per minute." A later call reported the jet banking 60 degrees, and the track turned right through about 190 degrees as it fell. WHY RECOVERY IS SO HARD: Aviation experts describe a familiar chain. Once a jet exceeds its speed limit, it can pitch nose-down on its own, which adds speed and steepens the dive. A steep bank tilts the wing's lift sideways, so the nose keeps dropping and the airplane winds into a spiral. Pulling back, the instinctive response, mostly tightens the spiral; the correct technique is to level the wings first, then pull up. Doing that inside cloud, with no horizon and an overspeed warning sounding, is extremely difficult. The jet passed 8,750 feet at 12:49 p.m. Eastern (17:49 UTC, the clock used in the graphic below) while descending at least 32,640 feet per minute, the highest rate the tracking system can report and about 370 mph straight down, a pace that covers the final 8,750 feet in 16 seconds or less. THE CONSPIRACY CLAIMS: Three claims spread online within hours: the jet veered toward Mar-a-Lago, six to nine miles east; it was hacked to target the president; or air defenses around the estate shot it down. The record supports none of them. The jet held its eastbound routing, its final right turn pointed away from the estate, and the president had already left for Iowa. The crew's own calls describe ice, turbulence and overspeed, and no official has suggested foul play. Early NTSB indications that the jet began breaking up before impact fit an airframe driven far past its speed limit, and officials have tied them to no outside cause. An official's description of the jet as looking "like a missile going down" referred to its angle, not its cause. Relatives have identified the seven passengers as an Austin technology entrepreneur in his mid-40s, his 40-year-old wife, their children, ages 4 and 2, the children's nanny and two adult family friends, flown by Capt. Jeff Gregory, 55, and First Officer Nathalia Gadelha Filgueiras, 20. Online claims blaming the first officer run ahead of the record, since investigators have not said who was at the controls and no official has linked anyone aboard to the cause. Why It Matters: The evidence points to a weather-related loss of control, not an attack, although the exact trigger is unknown. Confirmed facts are the crew's reports, the climb request, the overspeed mayday and the spiral descent in the tracking data. Whether ice, a storm updraft, an instrument fault, a mechanical failure or crew response started the upset remains open. The NTSB says the flight was a Part 135 charter operated by Aurora Aviation, doing business as Upper Jets, and that investigators have some indication the jet began breaking up before impact. Watch for the preliminary report in about 30 days, whether the cockpit voice recorder that maintenance records show was once installed was still aboard and survived, and which parts turn up away from the flooded main crater. ON THE GROUND: Dashcam video shows the jet falling nearly vertically as traffic moved below. It struck beside a mobile home community, where about 600 residents were relocated. A man in a vehicle beside the impact point suffered a leg injury, the NTSB said, and no other ground injuries have been reported. The last transmissions on the frequency were the controller calling the jet's call sign, with no reply.

DEBUNKED: This is an F4 Phantom from at least 4 separate angles hitting a concrete wall. It disintegrates immediately. Lear in Florida = disintegrated Twin towers planes = disintegrated Pentagon plane = disintegrated Shanskville PA flight 93 = disintegrated Everything is not a conspiracy.

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DON'T PANIC. (our graphic was Ai generated) Social media is currently stitching three unrelated developments into one “the government knows something’s coming” narrative: (1) the Pentagon’s FORTRESS initiative, (2) Dan Bongino telling people to stock 30 days of food and water, and (3) the UK government’s “Be Ready” campaign for 3 days of household supplies. Here’s the actual record. FORTRESS America is real. War Secretary Pete Hegseth announced it on September 30 as a “national insurance policy.” The public pillars are energy independence, supply-chain and industrial-base resilience, a strategic defense reserve, installation hardening and cyber resilience, and resilience in space and spectrum. Planning documents reported by Fox News on October 25 describe a 90-day self-sufficiency standard for major continental U.S. bases covering electricity, water, fuel, and communications. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called dependence on civilian infrastructure an “intolerable risk” and said “power is combat now.”What the record does not contain: a budget, a completion date, or any threat-specific language pointing to an imminent event. The program office is still being stood up. Energy resilience (microgrids, battery storage, nuclear microreactors) has been a multi-year DoD priority under multiple administrations. The 90-day standard extends existing work. It is a capability requirement for a prolonged conflict or attack that disrupts civilian grids and supply networks, not a countdown. Bongino’s comments reference circulating general advice about 30 days of preparedness and state that “there’s nothing wrong with being prepared.” He has promoted readiness for years and has had financial relationships with preparedness companies selling food and supplies. The available statements do not cite a specific, verifiable U.S. government warning directed at the public. The UK campaign is official and explicit: three days of water, non-perishable food, cash, a radio, and basic supplies. Senior officials have said it is not driven by any particular piece of intelligence. It matches guidance already issued by peer European governments for weather, cyber, and supply disruption. These are concurrent resilience measures. Military planners have long known U.S. bases are heavily dependent on civilian power and logistics. Hardening that dependence is overdue, expensive, and slow. Households that already keep a few days of water, shelf-stable food, medications, and cash for storms or multi-day outages are practicing ordinary prudence. Treating a multi-year base-hardening program, a media figure’s general preparedness segment, and a European civil-defense campaign as proof that “they know something is about to hit” requires ignoring the absence of any public timeline, budget, or specific threat.The record favors standing policy and capability development over specific warning intelligence. Useful indicators remain the formal establishment and funding of the FORTRESS program office, any published cost estimates, and which of the roughly 500 continental installations are prioritized first. Until those appear, the practical response is unchanged: maintain reasonable personal readiness for ordinary disruptions, and evaluate claims of imminent catastrophe against the actual statements and documents rather than the surrounding social-media narrative. Don't panic.

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Virginia Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas (D) surrendered today on a federal indictment charging racketeering, marijuana and money laundering conspiracies and bribery. Six others, including two daughters and a grandson, were also charged.