Academy Securities: $CL_F short term down! Oil is generally helpful to that [inflation decline].. TNX medium term cautious down! I think he's still dovish. He just needs the excuse of inflation... to be dovish again soon. Probably not this meeting, but soon.. The macro picture is split: an AI-driven compute/data-center cycle is running hot and driving a handful of large tech companies and index-level earnings, while the broader economy and most companies remain weak. Market upside is concentrated in compute exposure, but if compute spending growth falters (or companies begin selling excess capacity) that concentrated exposure and leveraged market structure can amplify a downside. Concurrently, disinflation/declining oil should allow the Fed to turn dovish sooner rather than later, pressuring yields lower and supporting risk assets unless compute demand weakens. #WTI #CrudeOil #Energy #OilMarket #US10Y #Treasuries #BondMarket #Rates @AcadSecurities signaltube.just-get.com/Inte…

Academy Securities: $TNX medium term cautious up! I don't think we can cut now without controlling the long end of the bond market. I think if we cut rates right now, we would lose control over the long end of the bond market. So I think we're higher for longer. Peter Tchir sees a 'tale of two economies': AI data center growth is booming and insensitive to interest rates, while the rest of the economy languishes. He believes the Fed cannot cut rates without losing control of the long end, and that the next 1-2 years will be about the cost of AI buildout, not the benefits. He is cautious on consumer spending and housing, and skeptical of strong jobs data. #US10Y #Treasuries #BondMarket #Rates @AcadSecurities signaltube.just-get.com/Inte…