Adam Chernoff

Week 7 initial thoughts on opening lines. OTB games posted a bit later. New England @ Chicago -3/50 LA was -2.5 and 49,5 Both teams off wins. Bears offense didn't miss a step with Caleb returning, 30/36 for 305, 12.4% above expectation, 50% success rate. Seems 50/50 to get Monangai back to help things further. Bears overcame 12 penalties for 133 yards, forcing 3 turnovers. Bears defense weirdly not tested by ATL run game (just 9 Bijan carries). Forced 0/3 on 4th down by the Falcons. Huge impact from Gordon returning. After starting by facing three top defenses, the Pats have scored 29, 45 and 26 against below average defenses winning three in a row. AJ Brown was off in his return (3 of 10 targets). Doubs went down with an injury and is iffy here. Lots of high leverage spots worked in way of the Patriots defense. Jets 0/3 in the RZ on drives that had a 1st down at the NE 14, 15 and 18. TO or empty on drives that got to the NE 30, 39 and 47. Not much of a take here. I would think the 3 is tempting for some given Maye's history against defenses this poor. Lots of noise in both defenses recently, but Chicago is catching a ton of breaks. Opposing the Bears offense isn't too exciting at the moment. Patriots did lose three offensive linemen (AVT, Moses, Brown) to injury in game, which could negate some of the Bears defensive issues upfront. Pittsburgh -2.5 / 44 @ New Orleans LA was -1.5 and 44.5. Both teams off wins. Paris game. First time the league has played there, which always tends to bring questions/scrutiny about weather. Roof covers stands but not field. Lots of rain and wind forecasted, but projections taper off just prior to game time. Certainly something to note. Steelers for me very hard to project. Were faded in the market all week, along with under money. Outboxed the Bucs and covered + the over in OT. Fairly underwhelming performance. Offense seems limited with injuries to these WR's. Saints have had a weird run of games. Pissed away big 2H lead vs LV, got humiliated by ATL with defensive injuries piling up, no showed in flu game vs Flores, then nearly pissed away another big lead vs NYG with McCarthy in. Shough reported to be playing with injuries in his hand. Threw for just 144 yards, and the Saints were killed in the box. -1.7 net ypp and benefitted from 4 turnovers. I'd like to think this is a game that benefits a more mature, veteran led team in Pittsburgh. Pretty clear path to disrupt things by getting pressure on Shough and stalling the offense as ATL/MIN did. Rain, wind, protests disrupting media and more make this a messy game. Tampa Bay @ Carolina -3 / 45 LA was CAR -2.5 and 43.5 Tampa off loss, Carolina off win. Injury reporting has been a mess all season, but Mayfield returning seems higher than a 50% chance here. Not sure what to expect with it being a throwing hand thumb injury in his return. Panthers off back to back wins. Coker back in the lineup this week made a big difference (lead the box score). Young playing exceptional. Panthers offense still moving very quickly snap to snap. Handicap here I think really depends on what is made of the Panthers defense. They have faced Tanner McKee, Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson in 3 of their 5 games. In the 2 games against functioning offenses with starting QB's, they gave up over 1,000 yards and 80 points. If Mayfield is fully participating throughout the week with no limitations, the Bucs offense should look a lot better than the last three weeks with limited passing Daniels. Would be tough to look at the under or the home favorite if that is the case, but hard to say what his condition is. Miami @ NY Jets -5.5 / 39.5 LA was -4.5 and 39.5 Miami off bye, New York off a loss. The Jets have the worst head coach in football. I don't think it is a coincidence that the four losses for the Jets are all against current/former divisional rivals who know Glenn and his style well, while his two wins are narrow against first year coaches. This week against Jeff Hafley is the third non familiar coach of the season, and this fits in the Jets weight class as a winnable game, at face value. As mentioned above, the Jets had some high leverage bad luck against the Patriots that made their loss look slightly worse than it was. Cooper and Taylor returned to the offense after missing games and made an impact. Sadiq will be another week clear of protocol, but AD probably less than 50% here. All in all, this will be the healthiest Jets offense in a few weeks. Dolphins off the bye, but were a team consistently getting backed in market going into it. Visually the team is playing damn hard for as much a lack of talent as they have. This is a big step down in class after playing SF/KC/CIN in three of the past four weeks, as well as facing the Flores defense in MIN in-between. Random, but, a couple of big plays the last two weeks reversed by literally an inch with a toe on the sideline. There is a 6 showing at CRIS, which seems like a lot to lay with the Jets in a game with this short of a total. However, it's an interesting debate. The Jets are going to be a lot healthier on offense. They have played in two bad weather games to suppress some numbers. Miami's biggest weakness is their secondary (53% pass success rate against). Can the Jets open it up and attack? Or is this defense finally going to look better when they are not facing an elite offense? Cleveland -1.5 / 36.5 @ Tennessee LA was -1.5 and 37.5. Both teams off wins. Really weird game to look at and handicap here. Browns are 4-2 atop the division but -0.6 net yards per play. Their four wins all required comebacks in the 4th quarter and two of them were on walk off field goals. Their offense is incredibly inconsistent and their offensive line has been beat up by much weaker opposing defensive lines. They have not closed as a favorite all season, and are now laying -1.5 on the road. Tennessee scored 26 unanswered to come back and upset the Colts in Indianapolis. Their pass rush finally broke out after a quiet start to the season. They generated a 46% pressure rate and 27% quick pressure rate, while sacking Jones six times. If anything this feels like a Browns team over achieving and a Titans team under achieving. Titans should have won the ugly rain game on the road at New York, and deserved better against Philadelphia, blowing it late. I could argue that the Browns could easily be 2-4. However, this is just a bad matchup at face value here. The Browns pass defense is elite, but they really can be beat on the ground. The Browns play such a tight margin game week by week, but I don't know if there is a path here for the Titans to do enough on the ground to keep pace. NY Giants @ Houston -9.5 / 44 LA was -8.5 and 41. Season saving win for Houston. Giants off a loss. Feels like the full reset for the Texans is on. CJ Stroud is playing well in his contact year. He is 15th in adjusted EPA/play, 10th in COPE and is pushing it deep. Noel is breaking out, Dell is working his way back, and Harrison is acclimating to the system. This is a much different looking Texans offense taking on a different level of play than perception. Big question is when does the defense click? Ryans has taken back play calling duties for two weeks, but nothing looks that much better. They are middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. Playing better down for down than the numbers give credit for (4th in success rate) but just can't get off the field. The only pass is that they have faced Burrow, Allen, Prescott (indoors) and Lawrence. Four top QB's and offenses. When stepping back in class vs Jones and Ward, they looked much better. Getting Winston/McCarthy here is potential for the get right game, barring a post London let down. Lots of calls on social for McCarthy to start because of the numbers and near comeback, but being put into chase mode with no downside at home vs the Saints compared to going on the road to start against Houston is night and day. Giants season is hanging on by a thread at 3-2-1 without Dart. Survived on a last second pick in their own end zone vs TEN. Survived 1st and goal at the 3 on the final dive vs ARZ. Huge comeback to squeeze out a tie against WSH. London letdown laying a big number is a concern for a defense trying to get right. But certainly a lot of things lining up for Houston here. Indianapolis @ Minnesota -6 / 42 LA was -4.5 and 44.5. Minnesota is winning everything right now with defense. At 5-0, they have allowed the fewest points of any team since 2010 through this point in the season. They have the fourth best EPA/play allowed of any defense the last 10 season. Their blitz and pressure rates are off the chart, and Flores is coaching incredibly well. Their offense is the opposite. They rank historically poor, and it is leading to a lot of interesting discussion about what is real coming out of the bye. This team was backed heavily to go over their win total by pros in the preseason. A lot of the sentiment was tied to O'Connell and Murray clicking in this offense. Murray has missed multiple games, their offensive line has been hurt, as have their top two weapons at wide receiver. Against the Saints, Murray, Jones, Jefferson were all on the field together and had their best offensive game of the season. Out of the bye, the expectation should be higher, with the offensive line getting healthier too. However, where is the true level here? The defense has faced the Packers (pre OL changes), Bears (in a downpour), the Bucs, Dolphins and Saints. This run of QB's, weather and situations has been pretty damn favourable for the defense that is playing off the charts. Can the Colts do enough to test it? I have doubts, and the early money in the totals market says no as the under has been hit. Daniel Jones does not look anywhere close to the QB he was a season ago. The Titans DL was non existent all season, then generated all the pressure they wanted. The run game is dying out, and the OL is breaking down. Without Pierce, there is no deep threat to stretch the field. The broadcast said that Downs was playing through injury. It's a very limited offense right now. Certainly nearing the peak of where Minnesota should be priced, but the run of four games ahead (DET, BUF, GB, SF) might be better times to try fade, than with Jones here. Denver -4/43 @ Arizona LA was -4.5 and 45.5 Both teams off wins. Arizona hung on vs LA. Denver was incredibly underwhelming against the Seahawks but got by in overtime. Arizona won 18-16 on a walk off field goal as time expired, and were competitive in the box...but honestly could have won by a lot more. They went 0/5 in the red zone. Arizona had drives with 1st downs on the LAR 16, 10, 8, 19 and 8, and never got in the end zone once. Arizona was still inconsistent with the run game (no Love), and couldn't find anything explosive (26 yards longest pass). Brissett was mediocre as he has been for multiple weeks. Sean Payton took back play calling duties with Bo Nix two weeks ago, and the result has been highly disappointing. Nix is refusing to run outside of the pocket to extend plays, as well as push the ball down the field. He finished the 2nd half with a negative air yards per target. Payton said this weekend that the language in the offense changed with Webb starting the season calling plays and that they are changing it back and is optimistic. It's hard to imagine it can get much worse. Is there is a pass to be given for the Broncos, it's that they have faced Kansas City, Jacksonville, LA Rams, San Francisco and Seattle in five of their six games. Don't get me wrong, the Chargers divisional win was far from impressive in the comeback effort, but this Cardinals game, even with it being on the road, is the biggest step down for Denver this season. If there is a bounce back in the Broncos offense before the Chiefs in Week 8, it's probably here. LA Rams -5.5 / 47 @ Las Vegas LA was -6.5 and 48 Both teams off losses. Rams lose as 13 point favorites to the Cardinals and drop to 2-4. Full on desperation time for the Rams after losing to the Cardinals. Second bad loss in the span of six days. After cutting their kicker, their new addition Grupe was hurt. Rams went 0/2 on 4th down in critical spots late. They were without their LT and pressure trickled down into impacting Stafford as it has all season. Now with McDuffie banged up, there are lingering issues on both sides of the ball. Raiders have now lost three in a row to Kansas City, New England and Buffalo. The defense that looked excellent against Miami, LA Chargers and New Orleans to start the season has regressed due to the schedule (as expected). But nothing gets easier here against the Rams. Vegas has been getting bet in market each week and are 5-1 ATS. They took a lot of money against KC, and got the cover on a late drive after going down double digits. They were blown out at New England after that game moved down a point. Then against Buffalo, they were bet consistently between 4.5 and 6, and like they did against Kansas City, came back with a late drive after the 2MW to get the cover. Not surprised to see them take a little bit of money very early this week with the Rams coming in struggling. Raiders closed 5.5 vs Buffalo and 3.5 vs KC. I think it would be tough for most to say that the Rams at 6 would be favored by 0.5 and 2.5 vs BUF/KC on a neutral given the current state of the teams. Probably have to see this live in the same price range as those recent games against comparable opponents in the rankings. OTB: Green Bay (SNF) @ Detroit San Francisco (MNF) @ Atlanta Cincinnati @ Baltimore (Lamar) Dallas (SNF) @ Philadelphia

NFL Week 5 Friday Pod Talking through every game on the board... nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1OxwbnEmb…