I use functional finance and sectoral flow analysis of the national accounts for investment. This is after the work of Professor Wynne Godley.
Joined February 2014
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Month 19 after the real peak in US house prices. In Oct 2007 the FHFA index was 1.3% below that point; today it is 2.9% above, a record. Real prices are 1.8% down, and the West has not regained its Jan 2025 high. alanlongbon.substack.com/p/m… #USHousing #FHFA #RealEstateCycle
Ottawa buys into Cohere at C$35.7B. My updated IPO maths: base ~US$23B, ~US$500/share vs ~US$615 implied Series E price. Strategic buyers are paying for strategy, public buyers will want revenue. alanlongbon.substack.com/p/c… #Cohere #AI #IPO #Canada
US goods imports hit a record $344bn in September. Consumer imports fell 12%, but AI servers and chips (+77%) were carved out of the tariffs. alanlongbon.substack.com/p/u… #Tariffs #USEconomy
Is the RBA about to hike into a falling housing market? My preview of the 3 Nov meeting: ~80% odds, who pays whom per 25bp (A$9.8bn/yr from borrowers), and how I'd play it. alanlongbon.substack.com/p/t… #RBA #AusEcon #ASX
The US Fed held at 3.75-4.00%, 10-2, with two votes for a hike. The bond market tightened anyway: on decision day the 2-year fell 3 bp while the 10-year rose 6 bp to 5.05%. And SOFR is now above the rate the Fed pays on reserves.
alanlongbon.substack.com/p/a…
#FOMC #Fed #Treasuries
The US Federal Reserve decides on 28 October. Futures put a hold near 91%.
The bigger squeeze is already here: the 30-year US mortgage rate is 7.32%, up from 5.98% on the eve of the Iran war.
alanlongbon.substack.com/p/t…
#FederalReserve #FOMC #Mortgages
Alan Longbon, MBA retweeted
Trump, $40 trillion in US debt, and a warning for property buyers.
Could history repeat itself? With rising debt and interest rates, is now the time to buy a house?
Australia, Aug 2026: Commonwealth surplus A$6.4bn, goods surplus A$0.5bn, new bank credit A$26.0bn. Credit is nine-tenths of the A$370bn 12-month impulse, and the private sector is back in deficit at 2.6% of GDP.
alanlongbon.substack.com/p/a…
#AusEcon #RBA #ASX #AUD
Mr @RobertPBalan1 says the 10-year yield has peaked, just after oil.
The order fits: refiners 4 Sep, WTI 15 Sep, pump price 21 Sep, 10-year 5.31% on 5 Oct.
After 8 oil peaks since 1990, the yield was lower 3 months on every time.
alanlongbon.substack.com/p/o…
#Bonds #Oil #TLT
US home sellers outnumber buyers by 62.6%, a Redfin record. Kalshi: 90% odds Democrats take the House. Since 1950 a Republican president with a Democratic Congress averaged 4.5% a year on the S&P 500, and held all 3 real estate busts.
alanlongbon.substack.com/p/g…
#Midterms2026 #SP500
US banks have cut $82bn of bonds since 29 July while the S&P 500 sits near its record. Mr Nick Gomez (@ANGTraders) flagged it this week. I tested his signal on 10 years of weekly data: the early warning is firing now.
alanlongbon.substack.com/p/t…
#SP500 #Banks #Treasuries
Alan Longbon, MBA retweeted
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the US war with Iran has been an economic disaster, blaming the conflict for higher inflation and borrowing costs worldwide.
That is SO far away from the truth.
The economy was already weak because of the 18.6-year real estate cycle. During the property boom, cheap money and sky-high land values led to a massive pile of debt.
Late-stage conflicts and energy spikes don't cause the problem, they just trigger the collapse. When central banks raise rates to fight energy inflation, it exposes all that unsafe debt.
War is just the pin that pops the land-and-debt bubble.
Alan Longbon, MBA retweeted
As economic alarms sound once again, from warnings of AI-fueled bubbles to fears of a political breakdown, one economist is urging investors to zoom out and follow the rhythms of history.
Phillip J. Anderson, an Australian economist and founder of @PropertySharem1, is best known for his prescient forecast of the 2008 U.S. financial crisis.
In his landmark book, The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking, Anderson traced over 200 years of U.S. economic history to reveal a recurring 18.6-year cycle driven by land speculation and credit expansion.
His analysis showed how previous crashes, including the one in 2008, were not random. It was part of a predictable pattern rooted in real estate dynamics.
Alan Longbon, MBA retweeted
The change in US Existing Home Sales has fallen negative year-to-date, a scenario that has historically coincided with periods of significant economic strain. Sales of Existing Homes are now down by 1.4% through the first three-quarters of this year, abnormally diverging from the 7.6% rise that is average for this period. $STUDY $MACRO $ITB #Economy #Housing
