Healthcare investing | current @harvardHBS, former @TAAssociates @BCG, @PennBioEng, @Wharton, @Regeneron 🇺🇸🇦🇷🇪🇸
New York, USA
Joined October 2019
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I am not a doomer on job loss in consulting and finance.
I’ve spent time at @BCG and @TAAssociates, and I can say with HIGH confidence that if we had access to novel productivity tools, we would simply…
Do more work — Evaluate more investments, do deeper analysis for clients.
Lucas Almada-Sabate retweeted
We can finally say AI isn't killing jobs.
A new paper from me, @tryramp, and @RevelioLabs uses firm-level spend and workforce data across 21K U.S. businesses to measure AI's impact on jobs.
Firms that adopt AI heavily grow headcount 10% over two years following adoption. Low adopters see no statistically significant change.
Would love to hear the community’s thoughts on Manus as a tool for coding agents. @HarvardHBS gives us licenses, and so far had an easy time making a simple agent that pulls class materials. I like that the agents live in .py files, which makes sense to me.
#Manus #claudecode
The issue with thinking the market is 15 turns (50%!) too low on terminal value is that if the market never ends up agreeing with you (see: moving the goalposts), the only way to make your hand is to hold the assets to… infinity, which does not jive with closed-ended funds
Prediction: there will be more human software engineers in 5 years than today. I’d expect them to work in-house across the economy — as opposed to at software companies — as the cost of developing software (time and money) decreases dramatically
These were always just marketing gimmicks for the labs and were never going to find PMF. There is only so much persistent demand for AI-ified photos of your friends kissing Obama on the cheek.
I dont think this necessarily signals a bubble pop
I am also long the idea of G&A savings across the economy from AI getting funneled into S&M, which $META captures
Not sure about unmonetized Reels / Threads (feels like plenty of ads shown there), but agreed on low price for this level of quality and growth
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There is simply no way to unseat the dollar right now. Trust in the US Treasury is absolute, meaning:
1) Govt gets to continue injecting treasuries at low rates
2) T’s are the most liquid market in the world for holding FX reserves
Flywheel is powered by this network effect!
Odd take imo. Token cost will obviously decrease over time (that’s what all the capex is for, and there will be more)!
This is the smartest counter I’ve seen to ai taking over jobs, in the short term.
Is the ((aggregate tokens cost to do what an employee does + plus fully encumbered developer and maintenance costs ) / (fully encumbered employee cost ) )<= productivity ?
If it takes 8 Claude agents, at $300 for tokens, per day, plus $200 per day in dev/maint , to do what an employee does per day, at a fully encumbered cost of $1200.
That’s 2600/1200. But then you need to factor in the productivity rate.
Is it more than 2.16 x productive ? Are there qualitative issues like morale, morality, whatever , that can’t be quantified, that need to go into the decision?
What is the going forward progression of burdened costs for the tokens ?
Curious what people think about this ?
Twitter slowly coming to the realization that if 50% of society becomes the permanent underclass, then everyone becomes permanent underclass
Prediction: this will get turned around and approved in 2026
Today we announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) has notified Moderna that it will not initiate a review of the biologics license application (BLA) for our investigational influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, and has issued a Refusal-to-File letter.
Read more: feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-…
Lucas Almada-Sabate retweeted
The parallel to coding's trajectory makes sense, though knowledge work has a stickier problem: most tasks require institutional context that's never written down. Will be fascinating to see how Claude navigates the unspoken rules of corporate deliverables
I feel bullish here. If all of the big tech CEOs are this consistently bullish on AI spend, I view it as a signal that they know something the markets don’t.
Given the massive sell-offs, tomorrow feels like a great time to go long
Nvm software is still very much alive!
Hg raises almost $30bn in triple fundraising blitz
via @SebMcCarthy @WSJ #PrivateEquity penews.com/articles/hg-raise…
If you measure it in $ABVX stock instead of dollars it looks even worse
Lucas Almada-Sabate retweeted
someone at this JPM panel said the future of healthcare interoperability is going to end up being teleoperated humanoid bots sending faxes to each other to get information
