Scythian Strategy Lab — we stress-test trading strategies with real statistics, not backtests. Walk-forward validation, power analysis, no cherry-picking.
London
Joined September 2026
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Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
🚨 GOLDMAN SACHS DROPS DOOMSDAY STATEMENT: U.S. BONDS HAVE NO BUYERS
Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.”
Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell.
No buyers. None. Zero.
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.”
Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.
This was exactly warned by Japan’s @yutokanzakireal that the measures being prepared by Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people and apologized to people of the West.
Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized.
If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses.
The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis.
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
🚨 The dead internet is no longer a theory.
China’s Manus AI, the autonomous agent built by Butterfly Effect, can run dozens of social media accounts simultaneously; posting, replying, and engaging around the clock with no human in the loop.
A single dashboard can orchestrate 50 profiles at once, turning one operator into a persistent online presence.
The footage is a wall of phone screens all moving at once. Most people scrolling will never know which accounts are real and which ones are just machines talking to each other. If this is already possible, how much of your feed is still human?
At this juncture, ....
🚨 إيلون ماسك يُفجّر قنبلة غير مسبوقة من داخل البيت الأبيض وأمام ترامب مباشرة: 💥🏛️🇺🇸
"لن تحتاج إلى العمل لحساب أي شركة بعد الآن.. سأجعل كل إنسان على كوكب الأرض يتنعم بـ (دخل خيالي) مثل المشاهير!"
ماسك ينسف الفكرة التقليدية للـ "الدخل الأساسي الشامل" التي توزعها الحكومات للبقاء على قيد الحياة، ويقدم رؤيته المرعبة للرأسمالية الجديدة:
📊 كيف سيصبح الجميع أثرياء حسب تصريح ماسك؟
1️⃣ ليس "مصروف جيب"، بل رفاهية كبار الشخصيات للجميع:
مع قيام الـ AI والروبرتات بإنتاج السلع والخدمات بلا حدود على مدار 24 ساعة، سيرتفع مستوى معيشة البشرية بالكامل وكأن الجميع يتقاضون أجوراً فلكية!
2️⃣ رعاية طبية تتفوق على ما يحصل عليه أغنى رجل في العالم:
أكد ماسك بثقة: "سيحصل الجميع على علاج طبي أفضل مما أتلقاه أنا شخصياً!".. الذكاء الاصطناعي الفائق بالتعاون مع روبرتات الجراحة الدقيقة سيقدمون أفضل خدمة طبية مجاناً تقريباً للجميع.
3️⃣ الذكاء للـ AI، العضلات للروبوت، وتبخّر مفهوم النقص المالية:
الـ AI سيفكر، والروبوتات ستبني الطرق والمباني وتزرع وتصنّع. اختفاء العمل القسري يعني اختفاء جملة "لا أملك المال الكافي للشراء" من القاموس البشري!
بينما يرتعد 99% من البشر خوفاً من "سرقة الذكاء الاصطناعي لوظائفهم"، يبتسم ماسك قائلاً: "جيش الروبوتات الذي يعمل بنفسه سيحول كل إنسان إلى ملك يعيش بلا جهد!" 💀⚡️
ضع التغريدة في المحفوظات لمراقبة التحول القادم 📌👇
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
At 27, Stan Druckenmiller was running $6 billion for a Pittsburgh bank, earning $43,000 a year and worth about $4,000.
In 1981 he started his own fund. Two years later his backer was in jail and the firm was losing $90,000 a year.
"I wasn't a genius, I just didn't know any better."
At the bank he had no experience whatsoever, so he put everything into oil and defense stocks. Then the Shah of Iran fell, the bet took off, and everyone called him a genius.
"If I had been a little older, a little wiser, I would have diversified."
Then a dinner in New York. A man told him he didn't sound like a banker and should start a firm. "With what? I'm worth about four grand."
The man offered to pay him just to talk. It still took a year and a half to raise $900,000.
Then the man went to jail over a scheme that cost Chase Bank $256 million, and Druckenmiller was left with $7 million at a 1% fee.
"I had $70,000 a year in revenues and my overhead was $160,000."
"That's how it started."
By 2010: $12 billion under management. 30.4% a year for 30 years. Zero losing years.
What he says actually made the money: most managers earn 70 to 80% of a year's gains on two or three ideas, while holding 30 or 40.
"The present is already in the price." So he looks 18 to 24 months ahead.
"My first boss used to say the obvious is obviously wrong."
Save this and watch the clip tonight, when you have time to actually sit with it.
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
Amazon was founded in 1994, one year after the birth of the worldwide web.
The founder proudly showed us their modest worldwide headquarters.
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
Ray Dalio said the quiet part about the AI trade on Bloomberg.
A $1B valuation isn't $1B of money. Someone put in $50M, the market marked it to a billion, and now it counts as "wealth." But you can't spend wealth - you have to sell it first.
That's the trap: a mountain of paper valuations sitting on a puddle of actual cash. Bubbles don't burst because the story dies - they burst the moment everyone reaches for money at once. And the exit only fits so many.
The vig? The house books your paper gains as real, right up until you try to withdraw them.
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
Here’s the holy grail of investing: Find 15 good, uncorrelated return streams.
If you look at the math of diversification, getting out to 15 uncorrelated streams allows you to reduce about 80% of your risk without reducing your return. That increases your return-to-risk ratio by a factor of five—giving you the upside without the downside.
Credit: Sam Parr, Shaan Puri, and @myfirstmilpod
#RayDalio #Investing #Diversification #FinancialWisdom
Valid points
A bank fee for a crypto transaction is higher than that of the blockchain network that facilitates it.
So tradFi is making more money from transaction fees than cryptoFi - " what a mix-match " ❗️❗️❗️ @Revolut
Advise : Dont transfer small amount of money using tradFi , it is not worth it, avoid it .
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
Today, Warren Buffett officially stepped down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
He took control of $BRK in 1965, when it was a struggling textile company.
61 years later, Berkshire is worth $1.09 trillion, surging over 7,700,000%.
One of the greatest investing runs in history. The end of an era.
I killed my own trading theory this week.
9 statistical tests, 3 major FX pairs, real price data — testing Auction Market Value Theory the way it should be tested, not the way it usually gets sold.
Result: no edge. Here's the full methodology. 🧵
I'm opening this up as a service: Scythian Strategy Lab. I'll run your strategy through the same harness — real data, real statistics, no bias toward telling you what you want to hear.
If your edge is real, it survives this. If it isn't, better to know now than after a funded account blows up.
DM @AlphaAudit916 to get started.
Scythian Strategy Lab retweeted
The FED chair announced a 25bp (25%) increase in interest rate yesterday .
Yet the bitcoin price has held on solid against all odds . This is good for its price if this strength is not as a result of already priced in hawkish FED and non-passage of the crypto clarity act or/& over leveraged short positions squeezing price upwards.
Whatever the case, patience is key : bitcoin needs to consolidate above the $80k - $84k zone for renewed bullish interest 🤞