Jeremy Alpha Trader · 美股Alpha猎手

Real LEAPS, my own account. $LLY +1,402% and $RKLB +1,004%, both closed. $TEAM and $UNH still open, snapshot as of Oct 29. I back leaders of long trends and sit through the noise. Follow for post-trade breakdowns, what I’d do differently, wins and mistakes. NFA nitter.cf/AlphaTraderJ/status/21…

$BTC is under $77K and $ETH under $2,200 after the Binance hack. Binance says about $3B is already frozen, and deposits and withdrawals are paused. This is an exchange problem, not a Bitcoin problem. What I'm watching: when withdrawals reopen, do coins rush out or stay put? nitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…

$QQQ fell 1.4% today, but equal-weight $RSP rose 1.2% and $IWM gained 1%. Money is leaving crowded tech bets, not the market. $GOOGL closed down 12.6%, and after hours $AMZN is down ~6% and $INTC ~20%. That's three tech giants hit in one day. Tomorrow $RSP holding green means rotation, not panic. nitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…

$COIN options priced an 8% move. After hours it barely moved. Here's why the quiet print matters. Revenue $1.22B was in line but down 35% YoY, so trading is still soft. Adj. EBITDA $333M beat the ~$283M estimate. Ignore the $2.51 GAAP EPS: most of it is crypto price gains on the books, adjusted net income was only ~$78M. The real story is the non-trading side. Subscription & services came in at ~$570M, inside the $500-580M guide, and Q4 is guided higher at $550-630M. That revenue doesn't need $BTC to rip. My take: Coinbase is slowly becoming less of a trading-volume bet. Not a buy-the-dip setup, but the floor looks firmer than the -35% headline says. NFA.

$HOOD and $SOFI are both "fintech," but run on different fuel. HOOD needs trading and crypto. Bitcoin is stuck near $81K. SOFI is a lender. The 10-year yield fell from 5.3% to 5.0% this month. Same label, opposite drivers. Watch yields and Bitcoin. nitter.cf/Mr_Derivatives/status/…

$IWM Small caps are rallying while the Nasdaq drops 1.3%. Is this the time to buy small caps? Small caps (IWM) are up about 1% and the equal-weight S&P ($RSP ) about 0.8%, while the S&P is -0.4% and the Nasdaq -1.3%. 8 of 11 sectors are green, led by healthcare, financials and real estate. This isn't risk-off. A handful of giants are dragging the cap-weighted indexes down. $QQQ Why: $GOOGL is down ~12% after earnings, with free cash flow deeply negative and capex staying high. Software names like $NOW and $FTNT got hit too. Investors are asking when the AI spending pays off, and money is moving from the big spenders to the rest of the market. It's not a rate-cut trade either: the Fed held yesterday and inflation is still sticky. My take: one day isn't an entry signal. If IWM keeps beating QQQ and RSP keeps beating SPY after $AMZN reports tonight, the rotation is real and small caps get interesting. Intraday numbers, may change by close. NFA.

$FTNT Fortinet beat on sales and profit. Its margins even hit a record. Yet the stock is down about 25% before the bell. Why? Service sales came in a bit light, and it lowered the full-year service outlook. Product growth also slowed a lot. After a 120% run this year, any slowdown gets punished. My take: the business is fine. The price just ran too far, too fast.

$NOW is about -15.6% after hours, and Q3 beat its own guide: cRPO +21% CC vs 20% guided. The hit is the slope. Q4 cRPO guided to 18.5%. At a premium SaaS multiple, that outweighs a 2-cent EPS miss. Next signal: organic cRPO on the call. nitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…

谷歌盘后跌 8%，EPS 2.12 远低于预期，但大头是持股浮亏 86.6 亿，经营利润率其实升到约 31.8%。 真正的问题其实有两个：搜索不及预期，自由现金流转负 91 亿。微软同期还有 186 亿。 nitter.cf/DeItaone/status/211553…

谷歌盘后跌 7.5%，问题不在 AI 需求：Cloud 收入 307 亿美元，同比 +103%，大超预期。 真正的雷是利润：EPS 2.12 美元，预期约 3.01；营业利润 406 亿，预期约 432 亿；搜索收入也不及预期。 增长没坏，利润率不行了。 nitter.cf/DeItaone/status/211553…

$MSFT FQ1 beat across the board. Rev $92.3B, +19% (est $90.7B) Adj EPS $4.89 vs $4.73 est Azure +48% MS Cloud $63.9B, +30%, accelerating Capex $39.4B, ~2x YoY ~+5% after hours. Demand isn't the question. The call is about whether Azure keeps outrunning the capex bill.

One hour before the Fed: Semis (SMH) +1.5% and energy +0.8% lead. Real estate -1.2% is last, with the 10Y at 5.02%. SPY +0.2%, equal-weight RSP -0.1%. A narrow chip bid, not broad buying. Watch XLRE into Warsh's presser. A hawkish hold keeps rate-sensitive names heavy.

Two hikes and S&P 8,400 only fit together if earnings outrun the discount rate. So tonight's $MSFT and $GOOGL capex guides matter more than today's statement. The pause is priced at 95%. The tell is whether Warsh leaves December open. If so, long-duration tech feels it first. nitter.cf/DeItaone/status/211542…

$VRT Q3 blew the doors off. Rev $4.31B, +61% YoY (est ~$3.75B) Adj EPS $2.21 vs $1.82 est Organic orders +100%+ Op margin 25.2%, +290bp FY guide up: ~$14.65B rev, ~$7.15 EPS +16.7% premarket. AI power and cooling demand is still accelerating. Picks and shovels keep winning.

Deep fundamentals. High conviction. Speculative bets. A value-investor's process: back the leaders of inevitable trends, never trash with flashy charts. Fixed series: AI stock deep dives · earnings one-pagers · LEAPS setups. My own bets, wins and mistakes. NFA/DYOR

彭博：SK海力士旗下 Solidigm 在和美方谈一座450亿美元的闪存厂，美国第一座新的大型闪存工厂，长期总投资或近1000亿美元。 但有前提：先批准它往中国工厂运芯片设备，理由是中国厂多赚的钱能反哺美国厂。 这本质是拿美国投资换出口管制松绑。 $SKHY $MU 我看商务部怎么回：放行，存储链的中国产能风险下降；不放，450亿更像谈判筹码。 nitter.cf/StockMKTNewz/status/21…