Rates & Macro Strategist 🤔 Joga Bonito 🤙 "Try nothing, and it's gonna be nothing Try something, and it's gonna be something" - DMX
Room of spirit & time or Paris
Joined August 2019
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The chart is showing link between financial conditions and commodity cycle. While the last decade was driven by liquidity impulse / low inflation, this one is likely to be driven again by commodities, which would mechanically tightening financial conditions.
Interesting to see that Gold is a victim of deleveraging here, but the SMI price action during a liquidity contraction seems to confirm its safe-haven status.
This is reminding me the buffet one :
"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
La Saumure retweeted
New paper out !
We introduce a framework to understand how U.S. authorities are preserving financial stability through 2 generations of policies
The goal ? Buying time in a world of more volatile capital flows and declining foreign savings recycling.
🧵
(Link on last post)
New paper out !
We introduce a framework to understand how U.S. authorities are preserving financial stability through 2 generations of policies
The goal ? Buying time in a world of more volatile capital flows and declining foreign savings recycling.
🧵
(Link on last post)
To conclude quickly, I think that now, we are living a progressive decline of US safe haven status, but without any winner to take the throne. We are going to a more fragile system, which by definition is a system where frequent interventions are needed, to avoid the burst.
The link of the paper :
allianz.com/en/economic_rese…
La Saumure retweeted
🚨🇫🇷 - Attentat raciste de Trappes : la FAMILLE du terroriste raciste a TÉMOIGNÉ « Kevin écoute beaucoup trop les chaînes d’info. Il relie tout à l’immigration comme le font ZEMMOUR, LE PEN ou PRAUD » auprès de Médiapart.
Ce graph permet de comprendre pourquoi la colère sociale est aussi forte aujourd'hui. Il remet également en cause le narratif, largement malhonnête, que l'on entend souvent : "Macron a échoué parce que les FR sont égoïstes et n'ont pas voulu accepter la réforme des retraites."
Je viens de l'école institutionnaliste, qui postule que chaque économie est régulée à travers un compromis social entre le capital, le travail et une multitude d'intérêts contradictoires. Dans ce cadre, proposer une réforme sans vision d'avenir / compromis ne fonctionne pas.
If you followed me recently, you know what it was clearly incoming. At this rate, oat is free money for institutionals. Even if i am not sure that the mess is over!
Australia’s second-biggest pension fund is buying French government bonds on the view that markets have overpriced France’s fiscal troubles and the prospect of European Central Bank interest-rate hikes. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
