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My NBA POTD for Friday☢️
Cooper Flagg 22.5 Points "O" -118 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️if tailing!
this season when Flagg gets at least 20+ mins he is over in 3/3 games averaging 29 PPG and 21 FGA
one of those already being versus the rockets this season where Flagg dropped 32 on 17 FGA
H2H last season when looking at games where Flagg gets 16+ FGA he is also over in 1/1 games dropping 34 on 25 FGA
the rockets are allowing the 10th most points to the ball handler where Flagg generates 29% of his points and the 6th most points in transition where Flagg generates 19%
the rockets allow the 7th most paint points where Flagg is attempting 31% of his shots and H2H this season we saw Flagg attempt 10 out of his 17 shots in the paint vs the rockets showing us he likes this matchup making 8 out of those 10 shots.
easy and simple read here can see this moving to 23.5+ by tipoff.
The Best Over in the NBA on Friday📈
Luka Doncic 7.5 Assists "O" -148 FD
50 ❤️⬇️ for my POTD!
this season Luka is over this line in 2/4 games averaging 8.3 assists on 11 potentials with both misses being hooks.
the warriors are allowing the 2nd most transition points, 10th most spot up points, & the 19th most to the PR Roll man.
the warriors have allowed the last 4 guards to go over their assist projection where all guards crushed their projection
Lamelo 8 / 6.5
Murray 8 / 5.5
Gillespie 9 / 2.5
Booker 7 / 5.5 (+108)
with Luka in a tough spot to score (top 5 ball handler defense) i think he backs his new and old weapons like Sexton in the spot up, Kessler in the cut and transition, and Sandro in the spot up.
The Best Over in the NBA on Friday📈
Luka Doncic 7.5 Assists "O" -148 FD
50 ❤️⬇️ for my POTD!
this season Luka is over this line in 2/4 games averaging 8.3 assists on 11 potentials with both misses being hooks.
the warriors are allowing the 2nd most transition points, 10th most spot up points, & the 19th most to the PR Roll man.
the warriors have allowed the last 4 guards to go over their assist projection where all guards crushed their projection
Lamelo 8 / 6.5
Murray 8 / 5.5
Gillespie 9 / 2.5
Booker 7 / 5.5 (+108)
with Luka in a tough spot to score (top 5 ball handler defense) i think he backs his new and old weapons like Sexton in the spot up, Kessler in the cut and transition, and Sandro in the spot up.
The Best Over in the NBA on Thursday
Evan Mobley 12.5 RA "O" -125 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing!
this season Mobley is over this line in 3/4 games averaging 12.8 RA what really surprised me is Mobley's potential RA - in the 3 games with RA data available (excluding yesterdays game vs the wizards where he had 14 RA) Mobley is averaging 26.3 potential RA where his only miss this season coming off a 31 potential RA game.
H2H Last season when getting 23+ minutes Mobley is over in 3/3 games getting 13,21, and 22 RA averaging 35! potential RA (13 RA game Allen DNP)
this season the Hawks allow the most RA to the PF position allowing the last 5/6 PFs to go over their RA projection the only miss is Naz Reid where the game was a 40 point blowout and he sat most of the 2H
some of the names that went over include
Giannis 21 RA on a 17.5 Line
Portis 13 RA on a 8.5 Line
Jabari Smith 17 RA on a 7.5 Line
Jabari Smith 8 RA on a 7.5 Line
Banchero 17 RA on a 13.5 Line
the spread on this game is 0.5 both teams are on a back to back I'm expecting a competitive game but with a LOT of missed shots from both sides considering their recent schedules
My NBA POTD for Wednesday☢️
Ja Morant 23.5 PA "O" -122 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️ if tailing!
Ja Morant versus the Memphis Grizzlies... does this even need a writeup? 🤣
this season when Ja gets at least 24 minutes (avoiding the blowout win vs the suns)
we have seen Ja average 13 FGA and 12 potential assists
he is over in 1/2 games dropping 19 and 27 PA (19 pa on a poor shooting night)
the grizzlies rank the 5th worst in the league to the P&R ball handler, allow the 5th most points, and allow the 5th most assists.
this season Ja is generating 34% of his points under the net where MEM ranks 5th worst, 35% in the paint where MEM ranks 17th (avg), and 15% from above the break 3 where MEM ranks 8th worst
Ja is generating 30% of his points in the P&R where MEM ranks 5th worst, 22% at the FT line where MEM ranks 13th worst, 18% in transition where MEM ranks 13th worst, and 11% in the spot up where MEM ranks 8th worst.
we have got to see Collier, Keyonte George, and Acuff all crush their lines vs this Memphis defense and now we get to see Ja face off his former team I can only imagine how many PA he will put up.
🌙🦉 NBA Night Owl
My NBA POTD for Wednesday ☢️
Joel Embiid 32.5 PR "O" -114 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️if tailing!
this is a dream matchup for Embiid!
the pacers are allowing the 8th most points under the net where embiid generates 31% of his points, allowing the 5th most paint points where embiid generates 20% of his points, and the 5th most mid range points where embiid generates 29% of his points.
embiid is facing a bottom 10 DVP matchup in spots where he generates 80% of his points!
the pacers are allowing the 6th most points and 4th most rebounds to the C position
the pacers allow the 5th most free throws (22% of embiids points) allow the most P&R (16% of embiids points) and the 13th most post up points (19%)
we haven't really seen any official centers play against the pacers but we have got to see average centers overperform vs the pacers including
Kelel Ware 30 PR on a 17.5 line
Derrick Queen 20 PR on a 13.5 line
Yves Missi 27 PR on a 14.5 line
now we are getting to see a top 5 center in the league against this poverty defense, im buying in.
My NBA POTD for Wednesday ☢️
Joel Embiid 32.5 PR "O" -114 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️if tailing!
this is a dream matchup for Embiid!
the pacers are allowing the 8th most points under the net where embiid generates 31% of his points, allowing the 5th most paint points where embiid generates 20% of his points, and the 5th most mid range points where embiid generates 29% of his points.
embiid is facing a bottom 10 DVP matchup in spots where he generates 80% of his points!
the pacers are allowing the 6th most points and 4th most rebounds to the C position
the pacers allow the 5th most free throws (22% of embiids points) allow the most P&R (16% of embiids points) and the 13th most post up points (19%)
we haven't really seen any official centers play against the pacers but we have got to see average centers overperform vs the pacers including
Kelel Ware 30 PR on a 17.5 line
Derrick Queen 20 PR on a 13.5 line
Yves Missi 27 PR on a 14.5 line
now we are getting to see a top 5 center in the league against this poverty defense, im buying in.
✅ Karl-Anthony Towns 18.5 Points “O” -132
KAT gets it done early 3rd, gotta love it easy cash 🤝
Drop a ❤️⬇️if I made you some money on this spot!
The Best Over in the NBA on Tuesday💵
Karl-Anthony Towns 18.5 Points "O" -132 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️if tailing!
Jalen Duren is OUT & Ausar is questionable
Kat has been on a tear to start the season going over this projection in 3/3 games averaging 21 points on 12.3 FGA per game
the Pistons allow the MOST free throws where KAT produces 20% of his points and without Duren they are going to have to foul even more to try and stop him.
H2H last season when Kat got at least 5+ FGA he was over in 1/1 game dropping 21 points on 14 FGA (a game where Jalen Duren was not present)
last season we got to see Towns play this team twice without Duren - game 1 towns only plays 23 minutes in a blowout loss where he only attempted 4 FGA
game two 21 points on 31 minutes 14 FGA KAT managed to dominate even after only getting 2 points first half.
bottom line i don't think Reed can compete with a player like towns in the paint or even at the 3 this is a lock.
The Best Over in the NBA on Tuesday💵
Karl-Anthony Towns 18.5 Points "O" -132 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️if tailing!
Jalen Duren is OUT & Ausar is questionable
Kat has been on a tear to start the season going over this projection in 3/3 games averaging 21 points on 12.3 FGA per game
the Pistons allow the MOST free throws where KAT produces 20% of his points and without Duren they are going to have to foul even more to try and stop him.
H2H last season when Kat got at least 5+ FGA he was over in 1/1 game dropping 21 points on 14 FGA (a game where Jalen Duren was not present)
last season we got to see Towns play this team twice without Duren - game 1 towns only plays 23 minutes in a blowout loss where he only attempted 4 FGA
game two 21 points on 31 minutes 14 FGA KAT managed to dominate even after only getting 2 points first half.
bottom line i don't think Reed can compete with a player like towns in the paint or even at the 3 this is a lock.
My NBA POTD for Tuesday☢️
Ja Morant 5.5 Assists "O" -125 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️ for the 2nd prop!
this line doesn't make any sense...
Ja Morant was traded to the Blazers in the offseason. Nori has consistently framed him as the primary ball-handler/point guard who pushes pace, attacks the paint, and sets up others (especially Damian Lillard and Deni Avdija), rather than a pure high-usage scorer.
in the first two games of the season Ja has went over this line in 2/2 games getting 8 assists and 7 assists averaging 8.5 potentials per game
(8 potentials in a blowout game vs the suns and 15 potentials against the kings in a semi competitive game)
the lakers are a bottom 10 DVP in games vs a bottom 10 DVP last season Ja was over this line in 8/9 games averaging 8.8 assists on 28.1 minutes
this season hes docked 23 and 27 minutes (one game being a blowout) we can pinpoint Ja to get at least 28-32 minutes vs the lakers tomorrow considering the 3 point spread and just how both teams have been playing.
in their two games last season (Ja on the grizzlies) Ja went over in 2/2 games dropping 7,11 assists on 14 and 19 potentials (31 minutes both)
the lakers allowed Collier and George to both moon over their assists projections in the lakers last game.
now you have Ja a very good ball handler with weapons like Deni and Dame this is easy...
My NBA POTD for Tuesday☢️
Ja Morant 5.5 Assists "O" -125 FD
Drop a ❤️⬇️ for the 2nd prop!
this line doesn't make any sense...
Ja Morant was traded to the Blazers in the offseason. Nori has consistently framed him as the primary ball-handler/point guard who pushes pace, attacks the paint, and sets up others (especially Damian Lillard and Deni Avdija), rather than a pure high-usage scorer.
in the first two games of the season Ja has went over this line in 2/2 games getting 8 assists and 7 assists averaging 8.5 potentials per game
(8 potentials in a blowout game vs the suns and 15 potentials against the kings in a semi competitive game)
the lakers are a bottom 10 DVP in games vs a bottom 10 DVP last season Ja was over this line in 8/9 games averaging 8.8 assists on 28.1 minutes
this season hes docked 23 and 27 minutes (one game being a blowout) we can pinpoint Ja to get at least 28-32 minutes vs the lakers tomorrow considering the 3 point spread and just how both teams have been playing.
in their two games last season (Ja on the grizzlies) Ja went over in 2/2 games dropping 7,11 assists on 14 and 19 potentials (31 minutes both)
the lakers allowed Collier and George to both moon over their assists projections in the lakers last game.
now you have Ja a very good ball handler with weapons like Deni and Dame this is easy...
