Happiness is greater than, or equal to, your perception of the events in your life minus your expectation of how life should be.
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Joined September 2020
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It's been months that I keep saying Hitler was far left. Every time, thousands of clowns show up in my replies to give me history lessons.
So I made a video to answer all these low IQ takes at once.
Topic closed. Next.
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# Black October
For anyone who knows me even somewhat well, it's clear that I am a 99th percentile tech optimist. However, the vibes have shifted for me quite a bit in the last 18 hours, and I feel a moral imperative to share what I'm thinking and feeling with my circles so that everyone can understand, and hopefully take seriously, what's happening right now. I think October 2026 will have many chapters written about it in the history books.
You know those scenes in financial movies like Margin Call where someone realizes that they're all fucked, and no one else sees it yet? And that person feels like they're crazy, and then suddenly everyone is pulling an all-nighter in a boardroom and freaking out? Yeah, that's kind of how this is feeling right now in the SF/Bay Area/AI circles.
We're 48 hours into what is being called Black October. In the last 2 days there have been several dozen cyber attacks which, in isolation, would each have been the worst to happen in an entire calendar year. Every sector from government to education to big tech and banks is being massively affected, and people are starting to freak out.
In a nutshell, what's happened is that frontier AI models have gotten to a point where they are as advanced as the most sophisticated programmers, with one critical difference: they can work 24/7, and you can spin up 10,000 of them with a single command and they'll work together tirelessly until they accomplish their task. The most advanced models today are from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, whose current best technology is so good that they haven't been able to roll it out to everyone yet because of the national security risks it poses.
Meanwhile, the best open source models (where anyone can just download the model weights and do whatever they want with them, uncensored) are slightly behind the frontier but still 90-95% as capable. These models, developed primarily in China, are being used by black hat hackers to wreak havoc on the Western capitalist structure. Presumably, this has been part of China's plan the entire time, and we're seeing its implications fall out in real time.
In red-pilled AI circles, we've been sharing and reading papers called things like "Situational Awareness" and "AI 2027" for the last year or so, which at the time felt a bit like near-term speculative fiction. They laid out the case for why Artificial General Intelligence (AI smarter than any human at any knowledge task) and Recursive Self-Improvement (models that are able to use themselves to get better) weren't half-baked future ideas anymore, but instead an inevitable outcome of the linear progress that's happening.
These papers would then talk about things like "takeoff scenarios," trying to envision how that moment would come to be and what it would be like when it happened. It would either be a "slow takeoff" that would play out over the course of months and quarters, happening subtly and only obvious to a few. Or, it would be a "fast takeoff" where it would pretty much happen instantly, like a bit flipping from 0 to 1.
From everything that I can see and am feeling, we are currently experiencing the fast takeoff scenario. Beyond the crazy security vulnerabilities that have come out recently, there have also been massive breakthroughs in life sciences, fundamental computer science, materials science, and pure mathematics that have all landed in the same time frame. While I still firmly believe that AI will be a net positive for humanity, it's more clear to me than ever that the societal and individual risk is very real, and is playing out NOW.
For as much conviction as I have that this is happening, the thing that's caused me to lose sleep is that I don't really know what to do about it, or more importantly, what to tell you, reader, to do about it. So, the best I can do is make a few suggestions that have always been a good idea but are more timely now than ever:
Set up 2-factor authentication for everything. I use Duo.
Use a password manager across your devices. I use 1Password.
Get an identity protection app set up. I use Alta.
Move your IoT devices to their own network. Claude helped me do this.
And last, but certainly not least, if you've been avoiding leaning into AI, see this as a catalyst to wake up and start using it. Don't just use the chat mode version of ChatGPT/Claude; click that Code/Work button and see how easily you can have AI write code to help you with your job. One of the biggest vulnerabilities was in a massively popular programming language called PHP, and the prompt that set it off was literally, "Find vulnerabilities in php."
This is an unprecedented time for humanity, but as we've done with many things before, we will prevail so long as we are kind, loving, and open-minded to the world.
Much love.
V0.01 retweeted
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
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Deuce Bigalow makes a great point here; France has universal healthcare, five weeks’ paid holidays, heavily subsidised education, extensive welfare benefits and a 35-hour working week. It also has public debt exceeding 110% of GDP, government spending approaching 57% of GDP and one of the highest tax burdens in the developed world. None of these benefits are free. Someone pays for them, whether through taxation today or borrowing against tomorrow.
And despite all that spending, public dissatisfaction persists. Perhaps the lesson for Australians is that the government cannot simply spend its way to prosperity or public contentment. I think we better learn quickly.
France has FREE health care, paid parental leave, paid family leave, FREE child care, FREE preschool, 5 weeks paid vacation, a 35 hour work week, generous unemployment and housing benefits, and heavily subsidized higher education.
Everything the left says they want AND THEY'RE STILL PROTESTING AND BURNING SHIT DOWN.
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ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
V0.01 retweeted
Premise:
Incentives drive all human behavior.
The corollary:
How to destroy a country:
A vast social security and support system that serves as a magnet for those who would rather not work.
An open immigration policy that does not screen immigrants to determine their ability and willingness to provide for themselves and their families.
An open immigration policy that does not screen for political and/or religious ideologies that are a threat to the country.
Economic incentives large enough to incentivize immigrants on the state dole to have large numbers of children, but insufficient for educated and economically productive mothers to be able to quit to raise a family.
The declining fertility of the most educated and productive women due to their delay to begin a family as a result of their desire and/or need to advance their careers, among other reasons, to live a life they deem consistent with their educational achievements and/or to repay their student debts.
Amnesty programs that give citizenship and voting power to illegal immigrants without consideration of their economic productivity or their threat to the country due to their religious or political ideologies.
The changing demographics and increased population due to the above factors.
The state responding to protests by increasing social support.
The continued failure to punish and hold accountable violent and looting rioters.
Government managed by a massive and growing unelected bureaucracy.
Government fraud, waste, and abuse contributed to ballooning budgets.
Anti-business legislation that makes it difficult for businesses to compete in a global marketplace being disrupted by AI, including restrictions on firing even poorly performing employees.
Overly burdensome, globally uncompetitive, corporate taxation.
Continuous increases in personal taxes to raise funds to provide for the rapidly growing welfare state.
The substantial majority of the tax burden levied on a small percentage of the population.
A growing percentage of the electorate paying no taxes and receiving welfare.
The introduction or threat of a wealth tax including the taxation of unrealized gains, i.e., taxes on paper wealth.
The flight of the most productive business builders and highest taxpayers to lower tax countries with lesser security concerns.
A growing percentage of the electorate voting for candidates that support increased welfare and laws favorable to, and/or that match the cultural and ideological needs and desires of a growing unproductive immigrant population.
The rapid rise in anti-semitism and inadequate efforts to address this hatred.
Increased borrowing by the state to fund the growing social burden.
Higher sovereign interest rates due to all of the above.
The resulting need to reduce expenditures to make the math work.
Increasingly violent protests that make life less livable for the productive and law abiding citizens leading to their accelerated departure.
And so on…
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I’ve spent a few days thinking about the Tesla Roadster reveal and landed somewhere I haven’t seen much discussion. I’m neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. And I couldn’t care less whether what we saw technically qualifies as a flying car. Three takeaways: (1) The risk of that live demonstration going horribly wrong was real. Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with so little financial upside. Elon did. (2) That willingness to attempt the seemingly impossible is what makes Tesla special. It’s also arguably Elon’s greatest contribution to America. He’s helped bring back something we’ve lost. The American spirit of chasing big scary ideas that most people think are impossible. That mindset is spreading across a new generation of founders and its long term impact on America’s future could dwarf anything Tesla ever sells. I think this is deeply underappreciated. (3) Can we just acknowledge how insanely cool that moment was? We’ve reached a strange place culturally where even extraordinary feats of human ingenuity immediately become arguments about why they don’t count. Not everything needs to be a debate. Sometimes we should just be able to stand back together and marvel at what humans are capable of. I’ve been both bullish and critical of Tesla’s ambitions over the years. But watching Elon and his team push the boundaries of what’s possible reminds me why I’m glad we have him. Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla a dollar or impacts $TSLA stock price is almost beside the point. We need more people willing to risk failure in pursuit of things the rest of us think are impossible. Because when they succeed we all win.
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I keep going back to this interview as we watch France burn…
The Far Left interviewer frame Elon and us as “Far Right” for being against exactly what is happening today.
Elon’s every word was proven correct.
Her view was proven wrong.
The Media is the Enemy of the People.
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Je ne veux plus fréquenter les gens qui disent « À quoi ça sert ? ».
J’ai 50 piges sur mon passeport, 12 ans dans ma tête (et 18 ans dans mon slip, dirait ma femme).
Et je compte bien que ça dure.
Je ne supporte plus les pisse-vinaigre professionnels du scepticisme.
À quoi ça servait de vouloir voler ? De traverser les océans ? De marcher sur la Lune ?
À rien. Jusqu’au jour où quelqu’un l’a fait.
J’ai toujours eu une tendresse infinie pour les originaux. Les inadaptés. Les rebelles. Les emmerdeurs. Ceux qui ne rentrent pas dans les cases.
Ceux qui ont des idées absurdes, des ambitions démesurées, des projets improbables.
Parce que ce sont eux qui font avancer le monde.
Pas les gestionnaires du déclin.
Les gens suffisamment fous pour croire qu’ils peuvent changer le monde sont précisément ceux qui finissent par le changer.
Et ce qui me terrifie aujourd’hui c’est l’état d’esprit que nous transmettons à nos enfants.
On les élève dans une atmosphère de fin du monde permanente. Entre malthusianisme, injonctions à la décroissance, culpabilité écologique et anxiété organisée.
Quelle terrible inversion des valeurs !
L’écologie devrait être un formidable défi lancé à l’intelligence humaine, pas une pédagogie de la résignation.
Je ne veux pas d’une génération qui s’excuse d’exister au point de ne plus faire d’enfants
Je veux une génération qui brûle d’envie de découvrir, de créer, de baiser, de comprendre !
l’optimisme n’est pas de la naïveté mais le courage de croire en notre capacité à tout affronter.
Le progrès n’est pas une fatalité mais une conquête.
C’est mon ode aux rêveurs, aux inventeurs, aux enthousiastes, aux insoumis, aux doux dingues et aux emmerdeurs magnifiques.
À tous ceux qui disent « t’es cap ? » plutôt que « À quoi ça sert ? ».
J’ai 50 ans, et je refuse de devenir vieux dans ma tête.
Aux fous qui veulent changer le monde !
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DEAR AUSTRALIANS‼️
I love your beautiful, rugged and unique country and culture. Literally EVERY Aussie I have met ALL over the world has an open mind, is adventurous and trusting in the goodwill of humanity. It is a wonderful trait that I admire and envy greatly.
But your ELECTED LEADERS continue to ABUSE your TRUST and YOUR GOODWILL by STEALING AWAY your LIBERTIES; YOUR FREE SPEECH, YOUR GUNS, and THEN allowing the IMMIGRATION of people who HATE WESTERN CIVILIZATION and have NO INTENTION of ASSIMILATING to your culture.
This is even a greater BETRAYAL than what your TYRANNICAL Government did to ALL Australians during the cruel and inhuman (and unnecessary) Covid lockdowns.
It is my sincere hopes that the people of Australia will WAKE up and reclaim your rights and VOTE OUT these AUTHORITARIAN ASSH@LES!
Good on ya,
Love
Rob
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Con razón siento que estoy en mi peor momento.
Años: 47.
A Curva da Felicidade.
O economista David G. Blanchflower analisou dados de 132 países para investigar a relação entre idade e bem-estar subjetivo. O trabalho reuniu 109 conjuntos de dados e encontrou evidências de uma curva em U em todos os países analisados.
A curva sugere que:
- Na juventude: o bem-estar tende a ser relativamente elevado.
- Na meia-idade: a satisfação com a vida diminui, em média.
- A partir de aproximadamente 47 a 48 anos: o bem-estar tende a se recuperar, segundo as estimativas médias do estudo.
Créditos: IG / longevitydaily_
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Roadster event livestream nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yKAPwNgg…
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Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note:
"The part of the SpaceX story that we believe holds the greatest growth potential, and that is being largely ignored/not contemplated by investors, is the Distributed Inference Cloud. Investors are already witnessing some degree of corporate/regulatory/social angst toward data centers. We see SPCX's efforts as instrumental in helping to get the Super Intelligence Economy and the Physical Intelligence Economy on the next leg of growth and economic development. As the 'density' of physical agents increases, we expect incrementally greater intelligence capability of the collective mobile swarm.
We ask investors to be prepared to hear about the Distributed Inference Cloud and physical AI swarms in the coming year. From our seat, we think this subject is very close to breaking out in the investor discussion. Gradually… then suddenly."
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Judges need to start answering for their fucked up rulings.
Western women should not be fucking collateral damage in this quest to force diversity down everyone's throats.
The traitors must pay.
This judge released a 16 year old foreigner who raped a girl in Australia because the guy is from Butan and has
“limited insight into societal norms.” of Australia.
He said the teen used "considerable force" while raping the girl but still suspended his sentence.
If they come from a country that doesn't know rape is bad why are they even allowed in?
This judge needs to be put behind bars too
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Jacob Hersant, an Australian citizen, spent one month in prison for performing a Nazi salute
A 16 year old immigrant from Bhutan, was given no jail time after isolating and forcefully raping an 18-year-old woman
He’d only been in the country for 6 months
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This is another example of how vertical integration is a superpower.
That they have internal use for the compute (and a strong balance sheet) allows SpaceXsi to take a more aggressive contracting stance on its IaaS business and ultimately command massively premium pricing relative to other compute providers relying solely on the rental market to make them whole on their capex.
Because of their willingness and ability to sign short term deals, enabled by the strength of their balance sheet, their relationship with nvidia, and their ability to flex supply into internal use in the event of a demand shortfall, SpaceXsi can enjoy wildly better pricing over time (assuming they can continue to scale up their fleet.)
This is another example of how vertical integration is a superpower. That they have internal use for the compute (and a strong balance sheet) allows SpaceXsi to take a more aggressive contracting stance on its IaaS business and ultimately command massively premium pricing relative to other compute providers relying solely on the rental market to make them whole on their capex.
