Isaac 🇺🇸🇮🇱

Big news, the FCC voted today to advance new satellite-to-phone rules that could benefit @SpaceX's Starlink Mobile, despite lobbying efforts by AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile to restrict parts of this proposal. FCC: "This marks a major step to unleash American innovation and investment in next-generation connectivity." The FCC voted to advance a proposal that would: • Open up an additional 482 MHz of spectrum for satellite-to-phone services, expanding eligible frequency bands from 5 to 13. • Eliminate restrictive spectrum-leasing requirements • Remove rigid geographic coverage restrictions • Allow more flexible agreements between satellite operators and wireless carriers • Modernize technical rules to allow more efficient spectrum use • Reconsider exclusive-use rights for certain satellite spectrum bands If finalized, these changes could make it easier for SpaceX to expand Starlink Mobile, access additional spectrum, and reduce regulatory barriers. Here's what happens next: • Late 2026: Public comment period opens, allowing SpaceX, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and others to weigh in. • Late 2026–Early 2027: Companies submit comments and responses arguing for or against specific rule changes. • Early–Mid 2027: The FCC reviews the feedback, evaluates interference concerns, and considers revisions. • Sometime in 2027: The FCC holds a final vote to officially adopt the new regulations.

SpaceX has just released its Q3 earnings results. Highlights: • Revenue: $14.58B (+161% YoY; vs. $12.7B est) • Adjusted EBITDA: $8.81B (+306% YoY) • Net income (GAAP): $4.40B (vs. $1.05B loss YoY) • Capex: $19.59B (+185% YoY) • Starlink subs: 13.6M (+89% YoY) • Cash & marketable securities: $90B Revenue by segment: • Space: $1.77B (+6% YoY) • Connectivity: $5.25B (+69% YoY) • SI (formerly AI): $7.56B (+830% YoY) • 1.7 GW of compute installed

ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case. ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share • ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue • Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model) • ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue • Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B • Market cap of ~$17.5T • Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share • EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B • Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue • Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue • Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue • Total revenue: $1.62T • EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin • Market cap: $20.4T ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.

That was the most insane product demo I’ve ever seen. Well done Tesla!