Arkadi retweeted
I actually disagree for this specific case, though I agree it's true for most U.S. companies. If you look at ad platforms like $META or $APP, a huge part of their revenue comes from outside the U.S. $APP made $2.83B from the U.S. and $2.65B from the rest of the world in 2025 (mostly Asia), so it's almost 50/50. $META did $74B in the U.S. and $124B from the rest of the world. For this type of platform, I do think international is the play. Also, $RDDT just started pushing international and so far I’d say it’s working pretty well, but again, they are just starting.
Looks like the pain for the stock market will continue next week
Oh boy
BREAKING: President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu today as the US prepares to resume bombing Iran, per WSJ.
The Trump Administration has also warned Arab Gulf states to prepare for a "short and intense" military campaign after the November 3rd Midterm elections.
Today marks 245 days since the Iran War began.
I’m still bullish $RDDT.
However, they can only offset slowing or declining user growth with better monetization for so long. Eventually, even higher ARPU won’t be enough to compensate for a shrinking user base.
Here’s a graphic illustrating why:
Agreed, for now I think the same as you. The problem is how long will it last? If they keep that trend going long enough then it won’t matter how well you monetize if you have fewer users each time and need higher spending ones to offset it.
Personally I'm waiting on the next few quarters for DAU to stabilize, or at least stop declining but those words from Steve weren’t great tbh…
Last $RDDT earnings we dropped -25%, I don’t think it gets worse than that…right?
I agree with @BillAckman X is one of the best tools an investor has. Curate your feed, follow high value accounts, and the amount of alpha you can find here is unbelievable. Better than paying $30,000 for a Bloomberg terminal even.
Some of my best investments came from this platform: $RKLB, $ZETA and $PRME.
I learned a ton about those companies just by reading the comments and debating exceptionally smart investors. Of course, nothing replaces the classic research you have to do on your own before investing in a company. But sometimes I come across points and perspectives I hadn't even thought of, and they add real value to my research and investment thesis. (Obviously you encounter a dumb person every now and then, but that’s part of it)
$RDDT reports tomorrow, so let’s do a quick recap on what you should know and expect as an investor:
Q3 guidance:
>Expected revenue: $860M–$870M (47%–49% YoY)
>Expected Adj. EBITDA: $385M–$395M (45% margin at midpoint)
Over the past few quarters we’ve had revenue beats, but they are smaller each time:
+9.84%, +8.93%, +8.74%, +6.43%.
The deceleration is clear here, so I'm expecting a beat of about 5.50%.
Also, options currently price a ±12.2% move. $RDDT has exceeded its implied move in 5 of its last 10 reports, so it's a coin flip on this.
The part I find most interesting is that the earnings move tends to stick. In 8 of 10 reports, the earnings day direction still held 30 sessions later. So tomorrow's move will probably set the trend for the next month.
At current prices, a lot of bad news is already baked in so It would take a seriously ugly report to justify another leg lower imo.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow, but personally I am very bullish $RDDT on the long term anyway.
Arkadi retweeted
When people discuss moats, they often focus on tangible advantages and underestimate the intangible ones. At AppLovin, I’d argue those include talent density, engineering and mathematical rigor, a minimalist philosophy, first-principles thinking, and the ability to innovate quickly.
These qualities are hard to replicate because they’re embedded in how a team thinks, makes decisions, and executes every day. The DSP model explains some of the efficiency; those organizational strengths help explain why AppLovin stands out within it.