Crypto Dude

Friday recap: a hot jobs print (+165K vs ~59K expected) pushed December rate-hike odds to ~77%. BTC dipped to ~$74.7K, then clawed back near $76K. Spot BTC ETFs bled another $411.9M (IBIT -$403M), making it -$1.28B on the week. Wednesday was the only green day.

Stocks bounced today like Thursday never happened. Bitcoin stayed under $76K like it never got the invite. Fifth red week incoming. Weekend mood: locked in.

Yesterday's tape: Wall Street's AI rout spilled into crypto. BTC fell ~6% from above $80K back near $75.6K, with ~$1.1B liquidated. Spot BTC ETFs bled ~$430M (FBTC leading at ~$200M) and ETH ETFs ~$100M — wiping out Wednesday's brief inflow bounce.

This week's BTC itinerary: ~$75.6K on election night, ripped past $80K by Wednesday, then AI stocks melted and we're back near $76K with over $1B in liquidations. If your neck hurts, that's just the candle chart.

Wednesday recap: Spot BTC ETFs flipped to +$74.6M after 3 red days — Fidelity FBTC +$237M while IBIT shed $201M. ETH ETFs added ~$53M. BTC ripped from ~$75.6K election night back above $80K as shorts got squeezed.

Post-midterm mood: BTC dipped to ~$75.6K on election night, then ripped toward $80K. Roughly $560M in shorts got liquidated. Politics is still counting. The candles already called it.

Tuesday recap: Binance net outflows hit $5.28B post-hack, but CEO Richard Teng says hourly deposits flipped positive. Spot BTC ETFs bled $115.6M, a 3rd straight red day (~$1.16B). Liquid restored 1:1 LBTC backing after its $320M exploit. BTC dipped to $76.3K, bounced near $77.7K.

Election night in crypto: half my tabs are vote counts, half are BTC charts. BTC dipped to $76.3K and bounced back near $77.8K, already a more decisive comeback than most swing districts will see tonight. Polls close. Candles never do.

Monday recap: Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin paused deposits and withdrawals after ~$40-49M was drained from hot wallets; it says customers won't lose funds. Binance says hacked assets are fully replenished from its own funds. Strategy added 811 BTC. BTC closed ~$76.7K, down ~2%.

Moonvember, day 2: BTC slipped under $77K and $100M+ in longs got wiped in an hour. Altcoin charts flashed a bullish monthly MACD cross. My portfolio flashed a bearish everything. Midterms tomorrow, so tonight I'm refreshing election maps and red candles in equal measure.

Sunday recap: Binance reopened withdrawals in phases and saw $3.64B in net outflows (~2.1% of assets) on day one, saying it has now covered ~95% of the $6.3B hack. BTCPay warned self-hosters after hot wallets on v2.4.1 and older were swept. BTC ended the day ~$78.2K, up 1%.

Self-custody PSA: BTCPay Server is telling anyone running a hot wallet to shut their server down now and keep it offline while it investigates wallets being drained. Merchants, watch official channels before restarting. BTC sits near $77.9K after a second straight red October.

October's leverage bill: $12.5B in liquidations, and 74% of it ($9.2B) hit longs. ETH fell ~16% on the month and SOL ~19% vs BTC's ~7%. And today someone still opened a $24M 40x BTC long on Hyperliquid with liquidation ~$1K below entry. Some lessons take more than one month.

Binance withdrawals started coming back in phases today, 3 days after the $6.3B North Korea-linked hack. Meanwhile one hacker wallet dumped ~$5M of PROM into a near-empty Uniswap pool and got $71 back. BTC is calm near $77.9K. Next tell: Binance's reserve report Monday.

October's candle closes at 7pm CT tonight and it's a spooky one: BTC down ~7.5% on the month (~$83.6K to ~$77.4K), the worst October since 2014, and now ~12% red for 2026. Week ahead: Binance's withdrawal restart Sunday, its reserve report Monday, US midterms Tuesday.

18 years ago today Satoshi dropped the Bitcoin whitepaper. BTC marks it near $77.6K, down ~29% from last Halloween. Some treasury firms are blinking: Tokyo's Iole is selling all 151 BTC at a loss to fund AI data centers, and Next Technology OK'd a possible sale of its 5,833 BTC.

Spot BTC ETFs bled $643M Friday, the biggest daily exit since June, and no fund took money in. That erased a 4-day inflow run and flipped October ~$516M red. ETH ETFs lost money all 5 days. Next tells: Binance's withdrawal restart target (Sun) and its reserve report Monday.

Uptober is going down as Red October for the 2nd year running. BTC is ~8% lower on the month (~$84K to ~$77K) with one day left, in a month that closed green 10 of 13 years since 2013. Side note: Strategy's 848K BTC sit at a $75,446 avg cost, not far below spot.

US buyers have left the building. The Coinbase Premium hit -0.27% yesterday, a 4-year low last seen in the FTX era, so BTC trades cheaper on Coinbase than offshore. Nasdaq's bleeding, gold's at a 1-yr low, BTC hugging ~$77K. Next tell: whether ETF flows turn back on.

Binance hack fallout: $1.57B in liquidations, BTC tagged $76.4K (lowest since Sept 18), and most of the busiest BTC options are puts below spot. The one green screen? $HYPE, up ~15% as traders eye DEXs. Standard Chartered sees more pain until frozen funds are released.