The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% today in a 10-2 vote.
Now December: a 25 bp hike is at 80.5% (PLY) / 81% (KAL), up from 74.5% on Monday.
> The October FOMC decision is tomorrow. "No change" is trading at 94.2% on Polymarket and 93.5% on Kalshi.
> On Sept 28, a 25 bp hike was priced at 68.5% (PLY).
> Volume on the October decision: $77.1M (PLY) / 18.4M contracts (KAL).
Auspex Terminal retweeted
BREAKING: Kraken’s parent Payward plans to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on Hyperliquid.
US perps for US clients, built on HIP-3*, subject to regulatory approval.
The infrastructure Outcome is built on just got a lot bigger.
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts.
HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback.
Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.
Auspex Terminal retweeted
JUST IN: @Kalshi crosses $300B in Annual Predictions Volume
The Celtics and Pistons tip off the 2026/27 NBA season today at 3pm ET.
Best Odds: BOS 51.5 (PLY) / DET 47.5 (PLU)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's odds of winning the 2028 Democratic Nominee dropped 1.8% today to 14.8%, her lowest odds since August 12th
She is now third to win the nomination behind Gavin Newsom (15.7%) and Jon Ossoff (15.2%)
4 separate teams were favoirtes to win the CFB National Championship today after multiple top ranked upsets:
> Georgia opened the day as favorites trading at 19.9%
> Following their loss to Auburn, Notre Dame became the favorite at 19.5%
> Miami briefly became the favorite at 18.7% following their OT win over FSU
> Ohio St ends day as favorites at 16.5%, after Notre Dames loss to BYU





















