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The Fed held rates steady, with two members voting for a hike. Bitcoin reacted calmly. How justified is that calm?
I break down rates, Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s earnings, and Anthropic’s IPO. At the end fresh Weekly Engine data and what it tells us about the BTC market.
substack.com/@adlerinsight/n…
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr retweeted
Few exchanges fully reimburse users after hacks.
Binance has done it before and will keep doing so.
That's one reason it keeps growing.
Any company that stores critical data should have an Application Security department. Every time a new LLM is released, engineers should recheck the code, APIs, and system architecture for vulnerabilities. What’s so hard to understand?
Elon was right: every day can bring a new zero-day. It’s only going to get harder from here.
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr retweeted
The largest hack in crypto history just hit the largest exchange.
And Binance is absorbing it.
$6.3B drained. ~$3B already frozen. The rest covered by its SAFU fund and its own money.
User funds: safe. What the on-chain data shows 🧵
In the #Binance case, we need to understand why a DevOps engineer had access to a container through which $6.3 billion could be withdrawn.
Does the exchange have a separate security layer for withdrawals and why didn’t transactions of this size require additional independent signatures?
cc: @cz_binance
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr retweeted
Binance Hack, where are the coins right now?
Ethereum network.
The attacker drained about $3.70B from Binance 14, Binance 7 and a Binance hot wallet into one receiver address, then split it.
Tether and Circle moved fast. $2.20B of stablecoins ($1.38B USDT and $823M USDC) is frozen across three addresses, the red nodes.
Before the freeze landed the hacker sold about $435M USDT for ETH through 0x Protocol, 1inch, LiFi and Uniswap, the four swap hubs in the middle of the chart. Nothing has touched a centralized exchange, bridge or mixer.
Another $60M USDT is locked as Aave v3 collateral behind a 19.8K WETH loan.
What the hacker still controls. 462.6K ETH (about $1.04B) in 11 addresses, three of which hold 85% of it, plus roughly $0.40B in other tokens (XAUT, WBETH, ENA, RLUSD, USD1 and a long tail) that are being sold into DEX pools one wallet at a time.
On the Bitcoin network, all 18,270 BTC (about $1.42B) went from Binance cold wallet through one staging address into 19 fresh addresses, 17 of them hold exactly 1,000 BTC, and not one has moved since.
Binance hack: estimated losses of $6.3 billion, with around $3 billion frozen.
What do the transfers reveal, and what risks could further movements of the stolen coins pose to the market?
I break it down in Morning Brief #290👇
axeladlerjr.com/binance-hack…
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr retweeted
Binance's initial investigation suggests that the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions. We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak. We will share a detailed technical post-mortem once the investigation is complete and the facts are fully verified.
The estimated total impact sits at around $6.3B. We have worked with blockchain partners to freeze affected assets, with ~$3 billion frozen on-chain so far.
Binance will cover all losses from the SAFU fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe. We will also publish an updated Proof of Reserves once the remediation is complete.
As an immediate precaution, Binance has:
- temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals while security checks are completed;
- revoked the affected address authorisation;
- engaged law enforcement and blockchain intelligence partners to trace and recover funds.
Our teams are working around the clock to resolve this issue safely and thoroughly. We are working closely with our law enforcement partners to confirm the identity of these criminals and bring them to justice.
Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates. Please feel free to contact Binance Customer Support if you have any further questions.
binance.com/en/support/annou…
Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike as the Fed held rates steady.
The statement upgraded economic growth from a “solid” to a “strong” pace. Inflation still “remains elevated.”
Warsh says September’s hike is tightening financial conditions but gives no guidance on the next move.
After the Fed’s Oct. 28 hold:
10Y yield: +5 bps to 5.04%
2Y: little changed at 4.73%
Yield curve steepened.
Markets priced an 86% chance of a December hike.
What’s happening with Bitcoin’s long-term holders?
The monthly LTH distribution volume fell 22% over the week. The price remains above long-term holders’ cost basis, but their profit cushion is shrinking.
We examine the shrinking profit cushion and the reasons behind the decline in the distribution metric in Morning Brief #289.
axeladlerjr.com/lth-distribu…
The monthly LTH distribution volume fell 22% over the week. The price remains above long-term holders’ cost basis, but their profit cushion is shrinking.
We examine the shrinking profit cushion and the reasons behind the decline in the distribution metric in Morning Brief #289.
axeladlerjr.com/lth-distribu…
The Fear & Greed Index fell to 51 over the past week. The market has stayed in neutral territory for the sixth consecutive day, despite spending almost all of the past two months in greed territory.
How durable is this cooling, and at what index value will the market move into fear territory - in today's Morning Brief. 👇
axeladlerjr.com/market-senti…
Market context explained visually.
Short-term holders are shifting from taking profits to realizing losses. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance has turned negative.
How large is this imbalance, and what would signal that stress is easing? I break it down in Morning Brief #287.
axeladlerjr.com/short-term-h…
Short-term holders are shifting from taking profits to realizing losses. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance has turned negative.
How large is this imbalance, and what would signal that stress is easing? I break it down in Morning Brief #287.
axeladlerjr.com/short-term-h…
Bitcoin dipped toward $79K last week. Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Oct 22, oil is climbing, Middle East tensions are rising. And per the FT, OpenAI cut its valuation for the new round from $1.4T to $1.25T.
Risk-off mode. What does it mean for Bitcoin and what do the metrics show?
substack.com/@adlerinsight/n…
Visual overview of the current market.
Bitcoin is 6% above the average purchase price of new players. Over the past week, this group's profit cushion narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, but their cost basis continues to rise.
Where is the level below which new buyers would be at a loss, and what does the Young/Old Ratio moving average crossover say - in today's Morning Brief.
axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-6…
Bitcoin is 6% above the average purchase price of new players. Over the past week, this group's profit cushion narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, but their cost basis continues to rise.
Where is the level below which new buyers would be at a loss, and what does the Young/Old Ratio moving average crossover say - in today's Morning Brief.
axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-6…