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懒逼交易员丨6年没玩明白丨交易没有老师,只有幸存者

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Joined May 2024
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长期缺女人,永远要草b
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本年度最重要的IPO—Anthropic,#Bitget 成为首家开放 ANT IPO 认购的交易所,本周四开放VIP轮,个人最高额度 300万 优势:对接华尔街最顶级配售渠道,历史配售是40-80% 劣势:上市后 3-5天才能交易 $rANT 、承销服务费 12% 适合人群:看好AI 看好Anthropic、不着急立即变现 十一月十日开放公开轮,个人最高额度 2.5万 优势:上市当天交易 rANT、承销服务费 5% 劣势:配售不保证,即便参加了最终也未必能拿到 适合人群:想当天变现 另外为新用户准备了 10万U等值的 $rANT 股票。通过C2C 入金的新用户,也有奖励。 我跟你们说我是怎么排这个仓的。 主力放 VIP 轮。为什么?因为硬顶 10 亿、个人上限 300 万,这意味着大资金能真正建仓,不会被稀释成零头。12% 费用换 40–80% 配售确定性——这笔账对大仓位来说太划算了。我宁可少 12%,也不要"没拿到"。 然后我同一账户开了 ANTHROPICUSDT 永续,小仓位带杠杆。干嘛?对冲那 3–5 天交收窗口的价格波动。VIP 轮 rANT 还没到的时候,永续先跑着,吃波动、做方向。两边不冲突,一边是"拿资产",一边是"吃情绪"。 还有个细节:没获配的 USDT 自动进活期理财,7% APR,每小时结息。等于你申购的钱在等结果期间也不是死钱。这个产品设计逻辑我觉得是对的——它假设你是个认真管仓位的人,不是来赌一把就走的。 所以对我来说 VIP 轮的优势就三个词:确定性、容量、结构。 确定性:不是抽奖,是机构通道真配售。 容量:300 万上限,大钱能进、小钱也能试。 你要是只想赌个开盘涨跌,公开轮或永续就够了。但如果你想在 Anthropic 这种级别资产上真正建一个"像样的部位"——VIP 轮是目前我看到最干净的路径。 目前VIP申购已开放,点击链接进行申购:bitget.ninja/zh-CN/spotlight… 活动链接:bitget.com/campaigns/anthrop… 个人观点,非财务建议
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#BTC:不确定是不是SC结束,但确实来到关注区域了。 左侧:等75k掠夺 右侧:等红框收回后的iFVG
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Tim 送 100 台 iPhone 涨粉 27 万,我心态崩了。 徐跑跑抽 10 台 iPhone Duo,我彻底崩了。 那薄肌教父也发个福利🎁 本次抽 15 台 iPhone Duo 2TB 人人都有机会,不看粉丝多少,不需要有蓝标。 参与方式: 关注我,一键三连本帖 并在评论区回复💬 24h 以后我让 @grok 抽奖🎟️ 保证公平公正公开。 不要等别人抽到了,才后悔没参加。 抽 15 个薄肌小子送给我,人人都有机会🙂🙂
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新的月圆🌙#BTC
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$NVDA : Buy the Fear — VWAP Retest + Golden Pocket Recent concerns over elevated AI capital expenditure have triggered a tech selloff. Is this the start of an AI bubble burst, or a normal valuation compression? Setting aside the noise, I see a constructive buying opportunity on 📷NVDA 🔘 Bullish Thesis 1. VWAP from the May high has acted as support twice already; P rice is now testing it again. I'm watching closely to see whether buyers defend this level for a potential continuation. 2. In my trading system, the first break of the rising trendline followed by a retest of the fib golden pocket that holds and sweeps sell-side liquidity is a classic long setup. 3.The key Fibonacci retracement levels align with an H4 bullish order block, creating a potential demand zone for buyers. 4.Both MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence, suggesting that downside momentum may be weakening. 5.Sentiment across social media has turned increasingly bearish. When expectations become overly pessimistic, even a modest improvement in price action can trigger a sharp recovery. 6.The recent sell-off doesn't necessarily mean AI demand has deteriorated. Underlying AI demand and related business fundamentals remain intact and continue to grow. 📈Trading Plan Entry 1: 212 Initial Position, 20% of my intended total position. Entry 2: 209–207 After first probe into the fib golden pocket + SSL sweep, then reclaim above 210. Entry 3: 215 Only after price reclaims VWAP and holds above VAH. 🎯 TP1: $222.50 TP2: $229.50 Stop Loss: 203.5 Risk-reward: ~1:2.6 If 203.5 is broken, I will stand aside and look for the next buy opportunity near 180. ⚠️ Final Thoughts I am constructive on 📷NVDA not merely because of the AI narrative, but because of its durable advantages in GPUs, the CUDA ecosystem, and full data-center solutions. As long as hyperscalers continue investing in AI infrastructure, Nvidia remains well-positioned to benefit. What is being repriced right now is the expected return on AI capital expenditure, not the existence of AI demand itself. The next phase is not about abandoning AI, but about becoming more selective — shifting from “buy anything AI” to owning only the leaders that have real cash flow, order visibility, and industry positioning.
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看来昨晚清仓 #BTC 合约多单是正确的,可惜昨晚计划的这笔空单今天起晚了没做进去,好可惜
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波段合约清仓总结: 10月14日CPI数据日之后的 #BTC 大饼波段多单,目前告一段落,我合约清仓了。 虽然期间保本了一次,追突破打损了一次, 但 假跌破79.8k、周末的80.8k,周一的81.3k 三次波段机会和底部都提醒到了,整体仓位和利润保持的不错。 现在是关键位置,明早再看了 (今晚写的分析也比较清楚)。 另外,周分析里的SPCX、MU、XAU, SPCX完成最终15%涨幅利润, MU三角收敛还在墨迹,我打算拿拿看, XAU昨晚在帖子里提醒1R止盈一次, 我没二次进场,计划明早看看要么做这个区间震荡 要么等4140的突破单。
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我在写的时候大饼还没突破84k,写完发出来就冲刺了。那么接下来就看看这里的价格反应,刚好这里也是密集清算区。
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#BTC 又来到关键位置,波段计划已发布,同志们看完麻烦点个火箭 点个关注,感恩! 原文链接在末尾。 bitcoin:native is trading below equal highs (EQH / buy-side liquidity) and the 84k supply zone, with a rising trendline from the 80k fake-breakdown low providing support. My focus is on how price reacts around 84K. We could see a liquidity sweep followed by rejection, or a clean breakout that turns resistance into support. Below, I'm tracking three setups: a swing long from demand, a short after a buy-side liquidity sweep, and a breakout long if resistance is reclaimed. 🔘 Chart Analysis Current Structure: Price is trading below equal highs (EQH / buy-side liquidity) and the 84.4k supply zone, with a rising trendline from the 80k fake-breakdown low providing support. Key Levels 🔴 Higher supply: 86400–86800 🔴 84k Supply / EQH: 84000–84400 (buy-side liquidity) 🟢 Demand Zone: 81600–81200 (prior range + trendline confluence) 🟡SFP Friday Low / trendline support: ~80800–81000 🟡nvalidation below: 80000 (fake-breakdown low) 📈 Trading Plan I'm following three conditional setups. The key is to distinguish a liquidity sweep from a genuine breakout rather than blindly buying or selling into resistance. 🚀 Setup 1 — Swing Long at Demand Entry Zone: 81.2K–81.6K SL: Below 79.6K TP1: 84.0K–84.4K TP2: 86.0K–86.8K I'm looking for a pullback into the demand zone, ideally accompanied by a sell-side liquidity sweep and a reclaim of support. The rising trendline and the previous reaction around 80K provide additional context for this setup. If buyers defend the zone and H1 price action confirms a bullish reaction, I'll look for a recovery toward the 84K liquidity cluster, with the higher supply zone as an extended target. 🔻 Setup 2 — Short After a Buy-Side Liquidity Sweep Entry Zone: 84.0K–84.4K Only after a sweep and bearish confirmation SL: Above 85.2K TP1: 83.2K–83.0K TP2: 81.8K The idea is to let price run the buy-side liquidity above the equal highs before looking for a move back below resistance. A sweep alone isn't enough. I'll look for bearish displacement, rejection, or a lower-timeframe structure shift before entering. If price reclaims the zone and establishes acceptance above resistance, I'll abandon the short rather than fight a confirmed breakout. 🚀 Setup 3 — Breakout Long Trigger: H4 close and acceptance above 84.4K. Entry: Retest of 84.0K–84.4K as support. SL: Below 83.7K or the confirmed retest low. TP1: 85.2K TP2: 86.0K–86.8K This is the right-side entry if buyers successfully break through the supply zone. Rather than anticipating the breakout, I'll wait for price to clear the equal highs and then look for a successful retest. If 84K flips from resistance into support, the next major area of interest is the 86K–86.9K supply zone. ⚠️ Execution Notes The 81.2K–81.7K demand zone and the 84.0K–84.4K supply zone define my primary trading areas. The swing long is based on a reaction at demand. The short requires a liquidity sweep and rejection. The breakout long requires acceptance above resistance. These are alternative scenarios, not three trades to enter simultaneously. The rising trendline and Friday low SFP keep the near-term bias constructive until proven otherwise. tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD…
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After averaging in across both entry zones, my average cost is $143.60. We’re up 11%, Target 1 is hit, SL is at BE, and I’m letting the rest run.
我又来倾倒市场垃圾了,欢迎大哥们关注点赞Tradingview原帖,感恩!链接在末尾。 $SPCX once halved post-listing and has now reclaimed a $2T+ market cap. Does it deserve it? View: SpaceX is a high-imagination company. I am constructive on the long-term story and will look to accumulate on weakness. 🔘 Chart Analysis Current Structure: 4H: Bullish 1H: Pullback / corrective Key Levels 🔴Short-term resistance: 158–156 (Previous range high + previous week's low) 🔴4H supply: $167–164 (bearish order block) 🟢4H demand: $150–145 (POC + fib golden pocket) 🟢Buy zone: $143–138 (4H bullish order block) 🟡Daily key low / invalidation: $130 🔘 Market Catalysts ①~328M shares (~7%) unlock on Oct 26. ②SpaceX / Grain Management agreement to acquire nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum → potential U.S. mobile carrier entry. ③FCC approval for 15,000 next-gen direct-to-cell satellites; addressable market >$200B. ④Musk transplanted SpaceX cold-gas thrusters onto the next-gen Tesla Roadster (“flying car” concept). ⑤Barclays: possible TSLA / SPCX merger announcement before December. 📈 Trading Plan n my trading system, the first break of an ascending trendline does not automatically invalidate the bullish structure. As long as the protected low remains intact, I look for pullback entries around confluence zones involving the POC and the Fib Golden Pocket. For now, I'm respecting the H4 uptrend and looking for long opportunities on a pullback, with a higher-timeframe Fib target zone at 185–190 . 🚀 $SPCX | Long Setup Entry 1: $149 / 146 Entry 2: $143 / 138 SL: Below $130 (suggested $129.6 to avoid stop-hunt / sweep) TP1: $158 (1:1) TP2: $166 (1:2) Final Target: $185–190 ⚠️ Final Thoughts SPCX is no longer “just a rocket company.” Post-listing, the real business mix is Starlink + launches + Starshield + Starship + AI. Its position in the market is hard to replicate. It may have one of the highest ceilings over the next decade, but it is also one of the most expectation-sensitive names. I do not equate “SpaceX changes the world” with “the stock is cheap at any price.” Reaching $300+ will depend on Starlink, Starship, and AI generating scalable cash flow — not on the next Musk narrative. Great technology ≠ great investment. Commercialization, cash flow, ROIC, and valuation still matter. tradingview.com/chart/SPCX/Z…
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下周的 $XAU 黄金交易计划, 感觉后面一段时间会和7月走势类似。欢迎大家去Tradingview原文点赞评论,链接在末尾,感恩! Gold is currently trading within a descending H4 channel and an H1 consolidation range. The current price action closely resembles the consolidation phase we saw in July, with no confirmed directional breakout yet. My focus is on the channel boundaries, key liquidity levels, and price reactions at my entry zones. My Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish in the short term. I favor buying pullbacks into key demand zones, but risk management remains essential as the macro backdrop continues to present headwinds from US Treasury yields and the dollar. 🔘 Chart Analysis H4 Structure: Descending channel. (upper rail acting as resistance, lower rail as support) H1 Structure: Elliott ABCDE triangle. (contracting range, Wave E likely in progress) Key Levels 🔴Sell Zone: $4,220–4,200 (Pre-Week High + channel upper rail + triangle resistance) 🟡Short-term Order Block: 4150–4140 🟢 Buy Zone: $4,110–4,100 Key support 一小时iFVG 缺口 and potential swing-long entry 🟢 H4 Demand Zone: $4,090–4,066 Previous week's low + lower-channel support 🔘 Macro & Fundamentals ① Markets have largely priced out an October rate hike. Recent dollar weakness and declining US Treasury yields have helped gold rebound in the short term. However, the risk of renewed tightening in December and still-elevated real yields could continue to cap upside. ② Structural bid from central-bank buying (notably ongoing PBoC accumulation) and record ETF inflows provides a floor. ③ Geopolitical and oil-price volatility can influence short-term flows, but rate and dollar dynamics are currently more decisive. ④ Key near-term catalyst: The October 28–29 FOMC meeting will be the key macro event to watch. 📈 Trading Plan As long as the channel structure remains intact, I'll look for long opportunities around demand zones and short opportunities near upper-channel resistance, using lower-timeframe confirmation to refine entries. I'm following a three-setup approach: one short-term long, one swing long, and one swing short. 🚀 Setup 1 — Short-Term Long (Scalp / Intraday) Entry: 4150–4140 (1H order block inside the triangle) SL: 4135 TP1: $4,180 TP2: $4,190 The objective is to capture a short-term rebound from the H1 order block. The target offers approximately 1:2 RR. 🚀 Setup 2 — Swing Long Entry: 4115–4100 Stop: Below 4060 (channel / triangle break) Tp1: 4180 Tp2: 4220 This is my deeper pullback setup.The trade targets a recovery toward the upper portion of the H1 triangle. Ideally, price trades into the main buy zone, potentially sweeps liquidity around the lower demand area, and then reclaims the level with bullish confirmation. 🔻 Setup 3 — Swing Short Entry: 4210–4200 (Sell Zone + potential buy-side liquidity sweep. + channel upper rail) SL: Above $4,230 TP1: $4150 TP2: $4110 TP3: $4065 I'm looking for price to rally into resistance, potentially take the previous week's high, and then show bearish rejection or lower-timeframe structural confirmation. If price breaks above $4,217 and sustains acceptance above the channel, I will reassess the short rather than blindly fade a breakout. ⚠️ Execution notes Prefer the swing long and swing short as higher-probability plays at the triangle extremes. A clean break and close outside 4220 or 4060 invalidates the triangle and shifts the bias to the breakout direction. If price breaks out of the triangle and establishes acceptance beyond the channel boundary, I'll reassess the setup accordingly. Trade the reaction at the level, not the prediction in the middle of the range.
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