A new paper from Alexander W. Crosier examines Kalshi’s next-day weather markets. The findings: • Kalshi beats the most accurate public forecast, the National Blend of Models (NBM), in six of seven cities studied. • Kalshi outperforms NBM by 10% a day ahead. • Kalshi beats a weighted blend of public forecasts at every horizon tested: day ahead, evening before, and morning of. From daily plans to decisions about flights, farming, and energy supply, better weather forecasts help people make better decisions. That’s the value of price discovery on an open exchange: trading produces useful information for everyone. How do traders improve on forecasts built by meteorologists? The paper explains: “Traders do not need to make a better weather model than the meteorologists. They only need to start from what has been published and add anything that the weather guidance missed.” Markets give people a financial incentive to be right. Traders build sophisticated models, analyze public forecasts, and seek out information others have missed. They compete to identify and offer better prices, incorporating that information into the market’s forecast. The benefits extend to everyone: the resulting forecast is available to people who never place a trade. ~75% of people who use Kalshi come for the forecasts, not to trade. The Weather Company, Fox Weather, and thousands of everyday people are using Kalshi’s weather data: markets turn competing analyses into information people can use. Read the full paper here: arxiv.org/pdf/2609.23969

I don't view human beings as degenerates, except maybe nazi trash like you

It’s weird that people live in neighborhoods with ring cameras, using their phone that listens to their eve her conversation, with GPS tracking, with traffic cameras that have existed for decades, and complain about this I think it’s just the name at this point

presented without comment

Anyone have that one Trump photo

A rapid deployment of German and Swedish forces to Gotland island is being carried out today. Units from 🇸🇪 and 🇩🇪 are rehearsing the swift reinforcement of the strategic island in order to ensure the security of the Baltic Sea. #SilverWotan #NATO

This is happening right now in New York. Thousands of people transferring their sins into live chickens. Then the chickens are slaughtered and sent to the same stores as any other chicken. Someone is eating a bird a stranger used as a vessel for their guilt. 🧵 (film link in thread)

"It's a whole lot of white people hiring a whole lot of white people." - Dan Le Batard on the current state of ESPN

Scott Jennings backed Abby Phillip and her panel of CNN liberals into a corner on corporate income taxes. "If tariffs are passed onto consumers. Where do you think corporate income taxes go? Onto consumers. If they‘re both bad, let‘s zero it all." "Hold on a second. No No No."

An extraordinary @Nature paper has just landed from the lab of @Sergiu_P_Pasca at @Stanford - led by Konstantin Kaganovsky. They have found a way to create "xenocortical mice" which have ~92% of their cortex occupied by a cortical organoid derived from human stem cells. This human-derived cortical graft integrates deeply with the host nervous system, supporting organised neural activity and behaviour. This study is a milestone in synthetic biology and chimera research. It has the potential to generate multiple medical breakthroughs by providing an enhanced biological model of human brain tissue that allows behavioural as well as neural and genetic assays. The Stanford team have been exceptionally thorough and proactive in addressing ethical concerns that comes from this frontier work. But their pioneering work nonetheless raises many open questions: are the xenocortical mice conscious? Do they have any human-like properties of consciousness or cognition? @NitaFarahany and I will be addressing some of these questions in a forthcoming commentary - where we'll also offer an ethically-informed roadmap to guide this important research as it progresses. In this context, "pacing the frontier" really does make sense 😉 Read the Stanford @nature paper here, and buckle up. It's wild. nature.com/articles/s41586-0…

Bought this house 3 years ago, rented it for $2200 Now $3160/m Section 8 babyyy🤑🤑🤑

We built high-throughput materials labs in Menlo Park to create a loop between experiments and models. The labs generate fresh data, the models learn from it, and then help us decide what to try next. Using only 1,300 H200s, plus months of our experimental data, we mid-trained and RL’d an open-source model to surpass GPT-6 Astra on our analysis benchmark. We call it Neon. This is real footage from our lab. We’re focusing first on hard problems in materials science, including superconductors, magnets, and semiconductor materials. Read our blog posts below.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has informed its European customers that late-September crude oil cargoes will be cancelled, due to the East-West pipeline being shut after last week's attacks and Yemen's Houthis taking over the entire Red Sea coast, per three sources to Reuters. Yanbu had five to seven days of crude stocks left for export when the East-West line went down, per industry sources on Saturday, and cancelling late-September cargoes means Riyadh does not expect the line back before they run out. Europe has been taking Saudi crude through Yanbu because Hormuz has been closed since spring. On top of the pipeline, the Houthis appear to have struck the YASREF refinery at that same port this morning.

Yeah there ain’t nothin going on up there

President Donald Trump on Proposed $5,000 ‘Trump Dividend’ Checks: It’s a ‘Reward for People’ for Putting Up with Biden Policies breitbart.com/politics/2026/…