Bau FPL

My FPL GW9 Tips ✅ • Biggest topic this week is Joao Pedro. I made a separate post about what to do with him & his best replacements. Make sure to check that out. Players, teams to target this week: • Bournemouth: they don't have a bad fixture (Arsenal (a) in GW15). They're a top 4 team in the categories: xG, npxG, shots, SoT, BCC, xGC, BCA, shots conceded. Evanilson is a cheap & reasonable replacement for Joao Pedro. Tavernier and Rayan are top 4 midfielders in the league for npxG, they're also outstanding in shots and SoT. Both average over 83 minutes, starting all 8 games so far. Silva, Hill and Truffert are also excellent picks. The 2 CBs average over 10 DefCon/game, both have decent attacking data. Truffert as a differential is exciting as well. The only caveat is Europe: means increased workload and possible rotation in December. • Rudoni and Bellumi are my two favourite cheap midfielders. Coming into the busiest period of the season after the IB, I prefer paying a bit more money in my midfield and not completely killing the spot. They are clear standouts in their price category, with great fixtures coming up. • It's also a decent window to buy Spurs assets. They had massive underperformance at the start, and it looks like it's starting to balance out. Van Hecke in defense, Kudus in midfield are both viable options. Other than Joao Pedro (and possibly Calafiori) replacements, it's not a good week to make transfers: • CHE vs. MUN, MCI vs. BHA, LIV vs. ARS - means all top teams have difficult fixtures. • Bottom-half and mid-table teams also play against each other. —» GW9 has the lowest projected goals so far in the season. • Having said that, something like: JP, Calafiori to Barry and Gabriel makes sense; buying two insanely robust picks for two unsafe ones (mainly because of fitness). • Palmer is a keep at the moment. Given the player pool quality right now, there are not many ways to redistribute funds. He's still ultra-nailed, talisman with pens, set pieces. If Bruno bounces back (new manager bounce soon?) a switch to him is viable in GW12 or 14. • I'd delay bringing in Brighton players for one more week. MCI (a) is as difficult as it gets, one more game of information on Mitoma and Minteh will be useful on who to buy long-term. Vuskovic and Groß are on my watchlist. Captaincy: Haaland is clear this week. If you don't have him, I'd recommend buying (distributing funds from Bruno/Palmer). If you can't, Palmer is a strong second candidate.

Here's my GW9 #FPL preview: ----- Q) What to do with... Joao Pedro? I'd sell. For one of the forwards mentioned below, depending on who you own, your budget, and your structure. I'm expecting him back post-international break, but he misses out on MUN and SUN, as well as multiple price falls. Wissa? I'd keep. I know this is controversial, but I'd only sell if you have +3 FTs after selling Joao Pedro and don't own Barry/Jackson. The reason for this is that Osula went out injured in the EFL Cup game midweek, greatly increasing Wissa's minutes. Transfers are precious, and the unlucky Wissa owners can save a transfer and rotate Wissa in and out of fixtures when needed. Calafiori? I'd keep, especially with the lack of information at present. If he gets rested in the CL midweek, I could see him start and haul vs. HUL in GW10. Gibbs White? Poor, unlucky owners. I'd keep – many managers have more important fires to put out than a nailed penalty taker with few obvious assets in midfield. Gvardiol? He's been having a few days off. I'm expecting him to start against BRI, and I'd wait before selling him ahead of FUL, depending on whether he starts midweek in the CL or not. ----- Q) Priority transfers in? Here's my shortlist: DEF: Gabriel, Silva, Hill, Van Hecke, Tarkowski. Soon, Vuskovic, Virgil, and Muharemovic will become more interesting choices, but the fixtures aren't there yet. MID: Tavernier, Rayan, Mbeumo, Garner (on pens?), Schade, Le Fée. Assuming most have Gross and Rogers. Soon, Liverpool mids (Gakpo, Barcola, Wirtz, and Szoboszlai) will become good options. FWD: Barry, Jackson, Calvert-Lewin, Evanilson. In that order. Oh, and if you don't have Haaland, get him in as soon as possible. Later on, Thiago will become a decent choice. ----- Q) To Free Hit or not? With IPS facing HUL and COV facing SUN, basically all the plum fixtures are gone. Therefore, I'm against FH'ing this week. Instead, I'm looking at GW12, 14, 16... or whenever Haaland is rumoured to be benched. ---- Q) My team is in shambles. Is it okay to take a hit? Only in special circumstances. I myself took a -4, bringing Raya in last gameweek, as I couldn't risk LIV-BRI being postponed with my structure of Verbruggen + 4.0. For those with 1 FT, I'd make a transfer plan, moving key assets in one by one, even if it's easier said than done. ----- Q) Captaincy? Haaland. No one comes close this gameweek. ----- Q) My team and transfer thoughts? Rank: 102k FTs: 1 TV: £103.3m Chips left: FH After correcting my mistake of getting Saka in the week before his injury, my team looks... just about okay. I will, however, be forced to make a transfer this week; otherwise, I'll have to start one of Wissa, De Cuyper, or Thiaw. And this is assuming that Calafiori plays. I'm 90% sure that I'll transfer out Thiaw for Silva, with my gut feeling, Bournemouth's schedule, and data models all backing the move. ----- This concludes my GW9 preview. I'm testing a more compact format, so let me know what you think about it, and if you have any questions or dilemmas for GW9 ⤵️

🚨 What to do with Joao Pedro? • Joao Pedro is out, at least until the international break. He’s a sell for most teams: • Many good replacements for immediate EV gain & reconsider after GW16 (post LIV, MCI). • Chelsea are currently 13th in the league for npxG, they’re the 2nd biggest overperformers (after Brighton), with a +6.8 G-xG Δ. • Given the quality of the current player pool having 2-3 Chelsea attackers is fine; no Europe, really high share of goals by the front-3. However offloading 1 or 2 asset is fine. • There are teams that can easily hold Joao Pedro too. It’s just the matter of whether you’re able to tank the price drop or wait more if it ends up being more serious. 🔹Who are the best replacements? • Firstly I’d look at Barry. If we take Haaland out of the picture he’s first amongst forwards in these categories: xG, npxG, shots, SoT, BCM, xGI, npxGI, xG from SP. He has started all 8 games, averaged 85 minutes and probably on penalties. At 5.6M he’s the best value pick in the game. • Jackson, Calvert-Lewin, Evanilson and Thiago come next. Thiago would be the ultimate replacement next to Barry; he has played the most minutes out of any forward (missed only 7 minutes), and has almost a -3 G-xG Δ but he’s on 4 yellow cards, so a suspension is close. Long-term he’s the most reliable. Speaking of long-term security Calvert-Lewin comes next; 6.1M, nailed, penalties. Jackson and Evanilson are the most explosive ones; insane fixture run for both of them. Backed by decent data. You also can’t go wrong with them. • If you’re still on the Fernandes, no-Haaland structure (like myself) it’s one of the most straightforward decisions all season. Downgrade Bruno & upgrade JP to Haaland. • Isak is interesting but I like his alternatives more. Liverpool have the most difficult fixture up next (Arsenal). Szoboszlai is back soon, which means he likely loses penalties. 🔸Sell tonight? In most cases, yes. • If you go for Jackson, Haaland or Isak you’d miss 0.2M not doing it, with very little extra information gained. Evanilson is also close, waiting one more day isn’t very helpful. • Barry, Calvert-Lewin and Thiago are not close. If you don’t lose money at all on Joao Pedro and want to buy one of these players just wait.

I think I know my Szoboszlai replacement 🔒

My FPL GW8 Tips ✅ • Saka went off injured last night, and Arteta's comments suggest it's serious. I'd be very surprised if he plays before the IB. • Swapping to a triple Arsenal defence looks like the most sensible play. If you don't have Gabriel or Raya, they're top priority for guaranteed minutes. Calafiori is also a great pick. • Odegaard and Havertz benefit the most. With Gyökeres and Saka out, I expect them to share penalty duties. That said, I'd avoid Havertz as better FWDs exist, but Odegaard is a brilliant, easy switch. • Szoboszlai is a sell for most; he's likely out until the IB. Liverpool's fixtures improve afterwards, but I'm fine holding off until we get full confirmation on his fitness. • Rogers and Mbeumo are top replacements. Chelsea have no UCL distractions and their fixtures are solid. Mbeumo is playing as a No. 9 in Šeško's absence (who could be out until February). He has started every game and never gets subbed. • Gibbs-White is next on my list: ultra-nailed, on penalties, with decent fixtures. • For a cheaper option, look at Schade (£6.2m). Great data and form, and playing 45 minutes straight off a shoulder injury is very encouraging. Thiago is on 4 YCs, so if he gets suspended, Schade could play No. 9 and take penalties. • Tavernier is decent (~82 mins/start, great data), but I'm still not fully sold on his price point. Upgrading to a £7.5–8.0m player or fully downgrading to a £4.5–5.0m enabler feels like better value. • Manzambi is a 'wait and see'. He's a doubt, and the City fixture was a bad entry point anyway. • Groß has two awful fixtures ahead, so I'd stay clear for now. • Semenyo is out for 2 months. Does that make City midfielders option? I don't think so. There's still too much rotation risk. Cherki, Foden, and Enzo are competing for the No. 10 spot. Doku and Ndiaye should start most games on the wing, but Allan, Foden, and Cherki can all fill in there too. If we get more clarity, we can reconsider around GW10–11. • Bruno Fernandes is a headache. Calling Carrick out publicly makes a benching possible if he stays in charge. However, I expect a manager change soon, and the classic "new manager bounce" could boost both United and Fernandes. For now, I'm holding (but let's see what news comes closer to the deadline). • Captaincy is tricky this week. After last night, Bruno is completely off the table due to uncertainty. Palmer is my top choice, with Haaland a close second.