We make fundamentals actionable and effective for your trading. Fundamentals for direction, technicals for entry.
Joined March 2018
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Don't ask yourself at which price you should buy
Ask yourself...
Is the reason why GOLD has dropped all the way down here still there?
If yes, DON'T buy the dip yet
If no, you can buy the dip
The answer right now?!
Yes, the reason why GOLD is trending lower is still there and about to get even worse post mid terms
Just a little bit of fundamental context can do great for your trading, just a tiny bit, teels you which way the wind is blowing
Every FX trade you have ever taken exists because of a decision made in August 1971
Before that, the main currencies of the world were tied together and barely moved, so for a currency trader there was almost nothing to trade
After it, they started floating, and the market you trade today was born
It was a Sunday night., in Washington
Markets are closed
Nixon goes live on national television
He announces the US was "temporarily" severing the Dollar's tie to GOLD (sure! It's been "temporarily" for over 50 years)
With that, currency prices were now decided second by second by buyers, sellers, central banks, and human emotion
Warsh said he was “hard pressed” to call policy restrictive on September 16
In FED language, that means rates weren't tight enough yet despite the hike
Since then...
1. OIL has been climbing higher
2. inflation has surprised to the upside
Your call now, should the FED hike this week?
OIL is up
GOLD is down
And that’s NOT a coincidence
When OIL climbs, inflation expectations climb, when inflation expectations climb, central banks lean toward higher rates, and higher rates pull GOLD lower
Positive surprise for the EUR here
Likely to gap a little higher next week
(short term bullish EUR and GBP, bearish CHF)
If you prefer to watch the video on YouTube:
youtube.com/watch?v=bQZD_akX…
Is this the right time to FINALLY long GOLD?!
Ehhh...
besomebodyfx.substack.com/p/…
Settle Ukraine so you can tame the energy crisis to then go mad on Iran (post mid terms) with more leverage, art of the deal
Carry trades are the best performers of the year
What's a "carry trade"?
Longing a high interest currency vs a low interest one
For instance, AUD, USD, NOK vs CHF, JPY
Now, you won't see a peg like that break every year, I know
But the logic is exactly the same on every pair you trade
A currency pair is a contest between two central banks
When one has to go up and the other has to go down, the pair has a direction
In 1992 it happened in one night because of the peg
Today it usually happens as a trend over months
We are long GBPCHF
1. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% (from 4.9%)
2. Wages (ex bonuses) accelerated to 3.7% (from 3.5%)
3. Services CPI jumped to 3.7% (from 3.4%)
Simply, all hawkish for the Bank of England which will have to hike at their next meeting and keep more hikes on the table as well
Target 1.12
