Thoughts on yesterday
1. Denver got every break imaginable and still almost lost. When the Rams get Nacua and Garrett back, they may just be unbeatable.
2. I hope Vikes HC O'Connell realizes Kyler Murray is as bad as JJ McCarthy. Half of his passes get batted at the line, he never looks to run, and he has happy feet in the pocket. There is zero chance Minn can maintain winning with bottom feeding QB Play.
3. Tampa Bay May have life if Jaylon Daniels takes over as QB. It is mind boggling why the Bucs gave Mayfield a big contract, especially because the QB position in the NFL is heading for tall, fast and quick athletes to play the position, all of which Baker is none of.
4. I can finally say something nice about Desean Watson. He has the Browns at 2-1 and is playing well. I have to say, as much as I have ripped him, he is a gamer who never gives up.
5. I don't know how many more injuries the Niners can absorb, but as long as Brock Purdy isn't one of them, they will always have a chance. He is playing at an MVP level.
6. The Cardinals back doored the number twice yesterday. They are great value when getting a lot of points.
7. The Steelers got a miracle win benefitting from a fumbled punt. Porter may have gotten some leverage with how bad the 2ndary looked.
The first-place Steelers play in Cleveland Thursday, vs the first-place Browns. All 4 NFC North teams are in First with 2-1 records.
8. Raiders are 3-0. Brock Bowers is a game changer. One of the best receiving TE's I've ever seen.
9. Something is wrong with Justin Herbert. Girlfriend, coaching, o-line..... Not really sure but all of a sudden, he stinks.
10. Everyone gives the home teams in Florida a huge boost in September. The 3 humidity home teams were 1-2 yesterday, straight up and ATS.
NFL Betting Edge drops at the normal sometime late Wednesday Night.
Minor National poker celebrity Nicholas Rigby joins the show.
Sunday Final card is up.
Sorry I didnt have Casey D on who was one of 5 circa survivor winners that took home 3.7 mill each, but the audio got damaged. I will try and have him on down the road.
He is heavily invested in KC this week.
Line is down to 9.5............. yikes
GL and enjoy week 3
I was happy it was called, but how is this roughing the passer?
The call flips the game
Kirk Herbstreit says it was a good call.
It feels like the NFL has instructed these guys not to question referee calls
Thoughts on week 2
1. Game that shocked me the most was Chargers losing to LV. By some miracle I had no money on them, but I did pick them in all my picks contests. Chargers season is over and they are duck soup.
2. The Bengals have benefited from turnovers and self-infliction by their first 2 opponents. Now they have the shitty looking Steelers. They actually might cake walk the division.
3. We got a taste of how good the Rams are last night. No Nacua plus did not even play that great and blew out the G-men albeit with Winston at QB.
4. Indy put every ounce of energy and effort they possibly had at KC and lost in OT. Steichen might be on the hot seat if they lose to Houston this week. The Houston-Indy matchup this week almost feels like an elimination game.
5. It looks like Kyler Murray is going to start this week for the Vikes. We can only hope that the putrid small sample size of his play in week 1 is not indicative of how he will play in Tampa.
6. After Cleveland's showing in week 1, it's very impressive how Monken got his team ramped up to pull the upset in Tampa. Hate to admit it, but Watson played really well in the 2nd half.
7. Seems like Lamar Jackson can never pull a game out at the end. For how good he is, Lamar is a bad come from behind QB.
8. The illegal contact penalty has to go. It was stupid when they brought it into the league and it still remains that way. Some refs never call it the whole game and some call it often. If a defender impedes a WR's route just call holding.
9. I really undervalued Drew Locke. A big part of my handicap with the Cardinals was fading Locke. Seahawks played without the starting safties again and destroyed the Cards. Extremely well-structured team from the GM all the way down.
10. I'm a fan of Texan HC Ryans but not going for it on 4th and less than one yard and instead attempting a 58-yard fg is unacceptable in today's NFL. He may find himself on the hot seat if he doesn't win this week at Indy.
NFL Betting Edge drops Wednesday night
We have a special guest that was one of the 5 Circa survivor winners last year to talk Survivor strategy.
@Colin7182005
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NFL Betting Edge starts the week off 1-0 with the Buffalo Bills last night. 3 more games for Sunday still up on the pod.
Also don't forget NFL Sunday final card and survivor talk. Drops sometime before 830 am Sunday morning.
Lets have a week!!!
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Thoughts on week 1
1. Apparently, Jim Schwartz departure left the Cleveland defense in disarray (Hunter G called that one). Unimaginable that the defense actually looked worse than the offense.
2. Pittsburgh almost lost to a team that had no chance of completing a downfield pass and supposedly had no pass rush. Yikes
3. The Bears offense is unstoppable, it's just a question of how many points you can limit them to. Carolina D was disappointing to say the least.
4. The Giants are definitely a playoff contender if they can stay healthy.
5. Miami and Tennessee are clearly the 2 worst teams. I was surprised at how bad the Titans were.
6. Just when you thought the international games couldn't get any worse, they out did themselves in Australia. TY Roger
7. Watching the Chargers, it's clear the injury to the center was a killer. LAC looks to be in for a long and disappointing season.
8. The Chiefs out played Denver in every aspect of the game. Like it or not, the Chiefs are definitely back.
9. Buffalo making Brady HC looks like it took the offense to new heights but the defense to new depths.
10. I'm hoping the short appearance by Kyler Murray is not indicative of how he will play the entire season. That said, I'm hoping Wentz starts this week at Chicago.
NFL Betting Edge week 2 drops late tonight
Sunday Final card podcast dropped
Wishing everyone the best of luck and enjoy Week 1
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This is impressive. What a goat.
Aaron Rodgers, holding nothing back, explains why he doesn’t trust anyone in government — right or left — and believes it’s all a sham.
“There is no MAGA movement. The guy you elected hasn’t done any of his campaign promises. ... When Obama was president, it was, ‘There will be hope and change for a better world.’ Has anything in the Black community gotten significantly better?”
(📽️ @NotJustFootball with @CamHeyward)
Observations last night merging into tonight and beyond
It started before the game when Seattle had to go with practice squad safeties, and quickly got worse when Darnold got injured on the 5th play.
But lets go back to when it really started. Back when the diabolical Dianna Russinni made Vrable's life a living hell. I really didn't think it was going to be a big deal until Vrable looked like a deer in headlights for most of the night on the sidelines.
Even when it was 10-0 with no Darnold, I never felt like the Seahawks were out of the game.
The Patriots got every break imaginable
-Seattle playing without 3 top safties
-Darnold injured: and please dont tell me Drew Locke is not much of a downgrade. Locke was a gamer and gave a great effort, but the whole game is different if Darnold is in there.
-Every penalty was on Seattle
-Pats converted all kinds of 4th downs
Karma is a thing. It's not a common handicapping tool, and it is seldom applicable, but it was evident last night.
The Pats had every opportunity, got every break and still couldn't win.
The Karma leaks all the way to Australia, where 49er HC Shanahan has had a memorable miserable camp with personal issues and team injuries, while the Rams have had a great environment.
I'm not betting Rams-Niners, but I certainly would not want SF.
Desean Watson is in the news for going 86 mph hours after being named captain. More bad Karma?
I will have much more on Cleveland-Jax on NFL Betting Edge Sunday morning at 830 am
@Colin7182005
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The 2 safeties being out for Seattle kinda sux but there is still enough room at -3 to make it a small play. I'm staying with the it.
Patriots at Seahawks
The NFL opener and SB rematch is days away and I did say on the podcast that I favored Seattle, so here you go.
1. I think the Seahawks are primed for a great season. I have the win total over 10.5-115.
I expect Sam Darnold to take an even bigger step forward. Darnold is entering the height of his prime this season. With a SB in hand and his newfound calm and cool demeanor, the sky is the limit for the Seattle offense.
2. Losing OC Kubiak should not be a big deal. New OC Fleury comes over from the same Shanahan style offense that Kubiak ran.
The offensive group is the exact same less RB Walker. Losing Walker cannot be overlooked, but 1st round rookie RB Price has looked phenomenal in camp.
3. The Seahawks basically beat the piss out of NE on both line of scrimmages in the SB and I don't expect that to be much different. Pile on the 12th man home advantage, and I think the Patriots are going to be up against it.
4. NE has had all kinds of distractions, with the latest being CB Gonzales not committing to playing the opener.
I don't have an opinion on how the Patriots season will go. They did add big talent at WR with Brown and Doubs, plus QB Maye will only get better. The o-line is still a big concern, especially LT Campbell.
The Seattle defensive front has a favorable matchup.
5. The point spread is SEA-3.5, and I can't really predict if it will go to 3 or not, but it seems to be heading that way.
I made Seattle 5.1, and I played Seattle at -3 -19.
I give Seattle a 68% chance to win the game, making my Moneyline price -213 vs the -180 market price.
NFL Betting Edge first NFL Sunday podcast will drop sometime before 830 am on Sunday Sept. 13th.
SURVIVOR predictions are coming
Buffalo Bills outlook
1. There should be an upgrade with OC Brady taking over as HC. McDermott was a VG leader but his in-game coaching decisions were atrocious.
The same offensive scheme is in place so nothing should change one of the most prolific offenses in recent years.
2. Offensively QB Allen is simply the best in the league.
The o-line should once again be strong, and the dynamic run game brings back the same trio of RBs.
WR has been a weakness, and while not one of my favorites, DJ Moore should give the WR group a boost.
The Bills and Rams should be the 2 best offenses in the league.
3. The Bills bring in Jim Leonard from Denver as the new DC and this unit needed a shakeup. The strong D-line comes back intact. The back 7 which has been problematic, has made some changes and should show improvement, especially with fresh coaching.
4. Losing the division to the Patriots LY, mainly because New England had one of the easiest schedules in NFL history, should not happen again.
5. Buffalo is the correct favorite in the division and is priced properly at -155 to win the AFC East.
The value with Buffalo is the win total over 10.5-30.
Just like the Ravens, I'm confident the Bills will get to 11 wins.
As I mentioned in my Ravens writeup, I think Buffalo and Baltimore are clear cut co-favorites to win the AFC title.
NFL Betting Edge Podcast drops late tonight.
We will discuss every week 1 game and hit on every team outlook for the upcoming season.
Professor will give his expert fantasy insight as well
Makes sense now why the Vikes couldn't trade McCarthy. I have never seen a more fragile QB in my life.
What an utter and complete bust
"Kyler Murray is the starter and it looks like Carson Wentz is gonna be the number two..
JJ McCarthy has a sprained ankle that is a multi-week injury and they like Max Brosmer"
@AdamSchefter #PMSLive
Baltimore Ravens outlook
1. New HC Jeff Minter comes in with an entirely different approach, which is exactly what the Ravens need.
I'm not saying Harbaugh was a bad coach, but he got very stale and he underachieved with all the talent he had through his tenure.
Declan comes in as OC from the Bears and should bring a lot of Ben Johnson style offense with him.
This is one of the biggest coaching upgrades going into the 2026 season
2. QB Jackson is a consensus top 5 player and the running game with Henry and Justice hill compliments Lamar' s style very well.
Losing center Lindenbaum is painful, and Pocic from the Browns is a capable vet, but a sizable downgrade. They are also starting 1st rounder from Penn St Loane at RG.
There is some buzzing concern about the o-line, but I think Lamar offsets it with his mobility. The new coaching staff will help insert optimal schemes to get the most out of the unit as well.
The O-line has looked good in training camp and preseason
3. The defense might be the biggest asset of the team.
All of the D lineman are practicing in full and it is my #1 unit in the league. Couple that with a top 3 secondary, and you have a top 5 defensive unit. Texans are the only defense I can clearly say is better.
With new HC Minter one of the best defensive minds in the league, this Ravens defense will be lethal.
4. With excellent special teams and a good Home field advantage, I think the Ravens have all the pieces in place to compete for an AFC title.
5. The schedule sets up nicely for Baltimore, especially since they have one of the easiest home schedules in the league this season.
The Ravens also play a scheduled road game in RIO vs Dallas so while most AFC teams have 9 road games, the Ravens only have 8. Ravens also have a lot of favorable scheduling spots.
6. The AFC North is much tougher than perceived. Everyone knows the Bengals should be good this year and the Steelers are always tough. The Cleveland Browns are not going to be the pushover that the public is anticipating.
Interestingly, the Bengal win total is priced properly at 10.5un25 while the Ravens total is under priced at 10.5ov30.
I'm betting the win total over 10.5 -30. I'm confidant Baltimore gets to 11 wins.
Hope you are enjoying these writeups and finding them helpful. I don't want or expect people to agree with everything.
My goal in putting content out, is that something you read strikes a nerve and helps you with your outlook.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook
1. Coming off a great 2025 season, HC Cohen brings the same coordinators back. This cohesiveness helps make the Jags among the top coaching staffs in the league.
2. QB Lawrence ranks slightly above the middle of the pack and has a great WR trio of Myers, Thomas and one of my favorite under rated players in Parker Washington. Travis Hunter gets inserted as the 4th WR making this group among the best.
3. The o-line could be a problem. RG Mekari, constantly fighting injuries, is listed as a backup to 3rd round rookie Pregnon opposite Ezra Cleveland, making this the worst guard combo in the league. Center Hainsey is dead average and the OTs are underwhelming. Its my 25th ranked o-line.
4, The move putting Travis Hunter at full-time corner was a good one opposite Montaric Brown, and this should be a good duo. The problem is that the safety group is among the worst in the league.
5. The D-line is a top 10 unit, but the linebackers are amongst the worst in the league. They let FA MLB Devin Lloyd sign with Carolina, and he was the backbone of the defense.
6. The Jags did nothing to improve the team this year. They had no 1st round pick, and the rest of the draft seemed geared to the future. They signed no meaningful FA and let 2 of their best players walk in RB Etienne and LB Lloyd.
7. Jax only has 6 home games, which is unprecedented in the NFL. They play back-to-back games in London, and the second game vs Houston does give them a slight advantage staying over from the prior week. The home stadium is undergoing major renovations which start after the second home game. The last 4 home games will only hold 40k fans.
The Jags start out with a layup at home vs Cleveland, but the schedule is brutality the rest of the way.
With bad OL, LB and safeties, plus the division being tougher this year and losing 2 key contributors from last season, I can see regression coming.
Winning 10 games is going to be a tough task.
I have already bet some under 9.5 -10. The line now is 9.5un40. Some places have 8.5ov40.
I recommend waiting until after the Opening Cleveland game, which Jax are 7.5 favorites vs DeSean Watson at home.
A better number will be available, especially if they look good and blow Cleveland out.
I am also looking at betting the Jags to miss the playoffs, also at a better number after week 1.
If Cleveland upsets Jax, all bets are most likely off.
I will update future betting opportunities every week on NFL Betting Edge which will air Sept 2nd.
The podcast airs every NFL week on Wednesday sometime in the later evening.
Also don't forget that we will have a second podcast dropping Sunday at 8:30 AM EST to update all games and talk SURVIVOR!!
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Ok, Steelers are never signing Porter Jr long term.
What would be better:
Getting him for 1 season in a contract year, when most players ball out.
or
Getting a first-round pick next season.
TRADE HIM
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