#Bitcoin has gone sideways for over a week. So why does the ownership structure look healthier, not weaker? 🧐 From 25 Aug to 2 Sep, BTC did very little on price, holding around $77k–79k. But under the surface, the market kept moving. This is the key behavioural shift: the rally is no longer being reset by price. It is being reset by time. That’s constructive and looks like as a healthy reset. 👇 URPD shows that ownership kept compressing toward spot instead of unwinding back into the old base. Here’s the structure now: 🟢$61.4k–66.5k: 2.20M BTC → lower support still intact 🩷$73.5k–82.9k: 1.83M BTC → now the main near-spot cluster, 86% STH 🔵$82.9k–88.9k: 1.40M BTC → almost entirely LTH supply still overhead The redistribution data makes the story clearer. Over this one-week range: 🔴roughly 272.9K BTC left lower profitable zones below $76.5k 🟢+339.8K BTC built at $76.5k–78.8k 🟢+59.3K BTC built at $79.6k–81.2k So even though price looked flat, ownership was still migrating upward and clustering near spot. That matters. Because this base is not forming due to a lack of selling. It is forming through absorption. The aggregate numbers show it well: 🔴realized price → spot: −217.6K BTC 🟢above STH cost basis: +222.5K BTC In other words, lower-cost holders were still releasing supply, but the market absorbed it without breaking down. After a sharp rally, the usual failure mode is a deeper unwind back into the old base. Instead, BTC has spent a week going nowhere while a fresh ownership shelf formed around $77k–79k. The market is using time instead of price to cool off. But the next leg probably won’t come easy. Sitting just overhead is the $82.9k–88.9k band with 1.40M BTC, essentially a lot of LTH supply. So the structure now looks like this: 🟢old lower support remains intact 🟢new ownership is anchoring near spot 🔵old LTH supply still waits above If BTC can hold this new shelf and start chewing into the $83k–89k overhead band, then this recent consolidation may prove to be less a stall, and more a launchpad. Data by @ResearchBTCNow #BTC #Crypto

❓Bitcoin has built a new STH base directly beneath 1.17M BTC of old LTH supply. So who gives way first?🧐 From the price surge 19–25 Aug, ownership shifted sharply higher: 🔴$61.4–66.5k: 2.74M → 2.37M BTC | −369K BTC 🔴$66.5–74.2k: 1.39M → 1.36M BTC | −30K BTC 🟢$74.2–81.2k: 751K → 1.27M BTC | +515K BTC 🙀 🟠$81.2–87.1k: ~1.23M → 1.22M BTC | −13.5K BTC | ~96% LTH The centre of ownership is clearly moving higher, but the interesting part is where it is stopping? The $74–81k zone now holds about 1.12M STH BTC, nearly 89% of the entire base. Directly above it sits roughly 1.17M BTC of LTH supply at $81–87k. So new STH demand is now climbing straight into an old LTH cost-basis wall. And so far, that wall has barely moved. At the same time, profit-taking has picked up again: 🟢24 Aug: +$1.57B net realized P/L 🟢25 Aug: +$908M Yet price has held around $78–80k! That tells us the new base is forming while a fresh wave of realized profit is being absorbed at much higher prices. So the setup is now very clean: ⬇️New STH demand below. ⬆️Old LTH supply above. 🟢Heavy profit-taking in between. The next move will tell us which side has more conviction. Will $81–87k LTHs use breakeven as an exit? Or will demand absorb that supply too and force price higher in search of the next willing seller? That’s the next real behavioural test. Data from @ResearchBTCNow #BTC #Crypto

#Bitcoin just gave millions of holders a chance to cash out at a profit. So why did most of the $61.4k–66.5k base stay put? 🧐 From 19–23 Aug, BTC ripped nearly 20% and generated +$3.35B in net realized profit over four days. Yet the dominant $61.4k–66.5k cost-basis base only declined from 2.74M BTC to 2.48M BTC. Roughly 91% of the base remained anchored, with almost all of the reduction coming from STH supply while LTH ownership barely moved. At the same time, ownership was building much higher. The $71.3k–79.6k range expanded from roughly 913K BTC to 1.33M BTC, adding about 415K BTC. The profit-taking profile adds another clue. Net realized profit peaked at +$1.67B on 21 Aug, then fell to just +$225M two days later even while price remained elevated. That combination is what stands out: lower-cost ownership remained largely anchored while new ownership formed materially higher. Behaviourally, it looks like the market is holding two views at once: 💎“I already own Bitcoin lower and I’m not rushing to sell it.” and 😱“I don’t need it to return to the old base. I’m willing to own it here.” The key question now is whether the new $71–79k ownership represents genuine higher-price acceptance or temporary squeeze-driven FOMO. If the $61–66k base remains anchored and the new $71–79k ownership survives the first meaningful retracement, that would suggest this move changed more than price. It changed where the market is willing to own Bitcoin. Data by @ResearchBTCNow #BTC #Crypto #Onchain

#BTC is barely moving. So what are buyers actually doing? 🧐 They’re absorbing the small amount of supply that does move and accepting ownership inside the same cost-basis range. From 5–12 Aug: +206.6K BTC was redistributed into $63.3k–65.8k. At the same time, roughly 91K BTC left the higher-cost region above it. The lower $52.8k–61.4k base remained largely intact. And the main $61.4k–66.5k cluster expanded to 2.75M BTC. That is now almost 24% of visible URPD supply concentrated in one cost-basis zone. So the behavioural sequence is becoming clearer: higher-cost supply is released → buyers absorb it inside the central base → the lower base survives → ownership becomes increasingly concentrated around current price The interesting part is how little redistribution is actually required. Price is not being forced materially lower to find a new owner. The BTC that does move keeps finding acceptance around the same range. The cluster has now survived its previous retest with a 138.6% Base Survival Rate, while cost basis is still migrating upward inside it (CBMI +23.8). So price looks stuck. But buyers are still doing something important underneath: absorbing supply and repeatedly accepting ownership around $61k–66k. The question now is: What happens when volatility returns to a market where buyers have already accepted so much ownership around the same price? #BTC #Crypto

🟠 More than a year of work. And today I’m finally ready to make it public. This started with a simple question: Can we look beyond Bitcoin’s price and measure what is actually happening inside concentrated pockets of cost basis? Since then it has been a lot of coding, testing, breaking things, rebuilding them, questioning the methodology, throwing parts away, and more than once starting again from scratch. Plenty of ups and downs. But here we are. I’m releasing the first public methodology paper behind Bitcoin Cost Basis Lab: Beyond Static URPD: A Dynamic Model of Bitcoin Cost-Basis Behaviour The idea is not to predict Bitcoin’s price. It is to look under the hood. Price can sit still while ownership does not. Inside a cost-basis cluster, BTC can change hands, migrate higher or lower within the range, survive a retest, mature from STH to LTH ownership, concentrate, disperse, or begin to fail. The framework attempts to measure that behaviour systematically through dynamic URPD clustering and a set of new cost-basis behavioural indices. It was built from an engineering and applied-mathematics perspective, but the question behind it is ultimately about people: How does ownership behaviour change when large groups of market participants have made decisions around the same price? This is v0.1. It is experimental. It will be tested. It will probably evolve. And it is absolutely not a price prediction model. But after more than a year of building it privately, I think it is finally time to open the work up. Bitcoin Cost Basis Lab is officially live. 🧠🟠 Acknowledgement where it’s due: I’ve learned a huge amount from @Checkonchain since his early Glassnode days, especially around realized value, holder behaviour and cost basis. And a big thanks to Research Bitcoin Lab @ResearchBTCNow for providing access to the dataset that made it possible to actually build and test this framework on real on-chain data. The methodology is mine, but the learning was never done in isolation. Paper below ↓ zenodo.org/records/21888200?…

🧐 What if #Bitcoin buyers are quietly raising the price they’re willing to pay? This week’s URPD shows a subtle behavioural shift. BTC barely moved. Yet roughly 205K BTC left the $62k–$63.9k cost-basis region, while ~303K BTC accumulated between $63.9k–$65.2k. Almost all of this redistribution came from Short-Term Holders. That matters. This isn’t a massive migration of old coins across the market. It’s a very local repricing of recent ownership upward inside the same cost base. Behaviourally, that tells us something interesting: buyers are requiring less of a discount to take ownership. Earlier, meaningful accumulation was occurring closer to the bottom of the range. Now coins are increasingly changing hands around $64–65k. 💡Sellers are finding willing buyers higher up. In auction-market terms, the market is beginning to accept higher prices inside the same range, even though price itself hasn’t broken out. Meanwhile, the broader $61.4k–$66.5k base has grown to 2.71M BTC, with a 136.6% survival rate. So the interesting story isn’t that Bitcoin is going nowhere. The range is going nowhere. But the behaviour inside it is changing. If this continues, the next signal won’t simply be whether $61.4k holds. It will be whether buyers keep stepping in progressively further away from it. Data by @ResearchBTCNow #BTC #Crypto #OnChain

🟠 What happens when #Bitcoin tests a major cost-basis base… and buyers become MORE committed afterward? Something interesting is happening inside $61.4k–$66.5k. When BTC tested the bottom of this zone, the base didn’t break. It grew. Even at 65K has strengthened again: 🟢2.69M BTC concentrated in the zone 🟢 135.8% Base Survival Rate with the cluster turned into the 🦾strengthening mode 🟢74% still STH-held That last number matters. 🧠 Behaviourally, these are still relatively young holders, the cohort normally most sensitive to price weakness. 💡Yet repeated pressure near their cost basis is not dispersing the cluster. Coins are continuing to concentrate there. That suggests something deeper than simple “support”: the market is repeatedly giving recent buyers a reason to sell and so far, enough of them are choosing to stay or being replaced by new buyers at the same cost basis. This is how a fragile base can gradually become a structural one. The real signal now isn't whether $61.4k–$66.5k exists. It's whether each test keeps making it stronger. 🧱👀 Data by @ResearchBTCNow #BTC #Crypto

🧐 Ever wondered how a #Bitcoin market bottom actually forms beneath the surface? Watch the holder cost basis evolve as supply becomes increasingly bottom-heavy, with more BTC consolidating into the lower structure. Price shows the move. Cost basis shows the foundation being built. 👀 Watch the base form. #BTC #Crypto Data by @ResearchBTCNow

🤔 What does it tell us when #Bitcoin tests the bottom of its largest cost-basis cluster and the cluster grows by 36%? 🔥 Bitcoin has recently stress-tested bottom of its largest cost-basis base and the base got bigger! The $61.4k–$66.5k cluster now holds 2.63M BTC, making it by far the dominant concentration of supply in the current structure plus making the distribution even bottom heavier. What matters is what happened during the retest. 📍 When this zone was retested on 23 July, it contained ~1.93M BTC. Today: 2.63M BTC. 📈 That’s roughly +700k BTC (+36%) accumulated into the same cost-basis region after the retest. And Bitcoin didn’t need to move higher for that to happen. Price came back toward the bottom of the base, yet supply continued concentrating inside it. The Base Survival Rate has climbed to 132.5% meaning the zone now contains substantially more BTC than it did when the latest test began. There’s another important detail: 73% of the supply is still STH-held. So this is not yet an old, mature LTH floor. It is a young base being actively built and repeatedly defended. 🧠 That distinction matters. If price remains above this structure long enough, today’s STH-heavy supply can gradually age into LTH supply. In other words, the market may be converting a volatile accumulation zone into a much harder structural floor. Meanwhile the next base at $66.5k–$73.5k already holds another 1.22M BTC, with a very different composition: 58% LTH / 42% STH. So beneath ~$73.5k we now have almost 3.85M BTC of concentrated cost basis, but in two different stages of maturation. 🟠 $61.4–66.5k = active absorption. 🔵 $66.5–73.5k = increasingly mature supply. The market isn’t simply bouncing from support. ⚡ It is rebuilding the ownership structure underneath price. #BTC #Crypto Data by @ResearchBTCNow

What does #Bitcoin’s cost basis reveal about holder psychology after the dip and recovery? The market returned to roughly $64.4k, but the bases underneath it did not behave equally. $61.4k–$65.8k — 2.09M BTC | 🔴71% STH / 🔵29% LTH This is the market’s main battleground. Most coins belong to recent buyers, so confidence here is still price-sensitive. Yet the base survived the retest, suggesting these holders did not panic when price came back into their entry zone. $65.8k–$73.5k — 1.48M BTC 🔴48% STH / 🔵52% LTH This zone is psychologically maturing. Its rising LTH share indicates that more holders are accepting time and volatility rather than selling quickly. What began as an overhead supply zone is gradually becoming a more stable ownership base. $52.8k–$61.4k — 864k BTC 🔴29% STH / 🔵71% LTH This is the strongest conviction layer below price. Most supply is now held by older hands, making the zone less emotionally reactive and more likely to behave as structural support during deeper corrections. The psychological structure is becoming clear: strong conviction below, active price-sensitive positioning around spot, and unresolved pressure above. Bitcoin looked flat. Holder behaviour continued to evolve. #BTC #CryptoAlpha #Crypto Data by @ResearchBTCNow

💡What happens when Bitcoin revisits the cost basis of more than 2 million BTC? We clustered Bitcoin’s URPD, tracked the clusters through time, and backtested how they behaved when price returned to them. Now the market is testing the most important base so far. About 2.03M BTC sits between $61.8k and $64.7k — the largest and strongest concentration in the current structure. But the volume alone is not the real signal. The behaviour inside the base is. This zone is approximately 72% STH and 28% LTH, which means a large share of the supply belongs to relatively recent buyers. These holders are more sensitive to price weakness and more likely to sell when their conviction is tested. Price has returned to their cost basis. Losses are being realised. Yet the base has not emptied. Its Base Survival Rate is 121.9%. In simple terms, BSR asks: After price revisits a cost-basis zone, how much of that base is still there? A BSR above 100% means the zone has not merely survived. More BTC is now concentrated there than when the base originally formed. That suggests selling is being absorbed. The dashboard labels this base as rotating. Rotation means the original holders are not necessarily staying. Some are exiting, but new buyers are taking the other side near the same price range. Ownership changes, while the cost-basis structure remains intact. That is materially different from distribution. In distribution, supply leaves the zone and the base becomes thinner. In rotation, weak or impatient holders transfer BTC to buyers willing to defend the same area. This is the test happening now: Can recent buyers sell under pressure without overwhelming the demand absorbing them? So far, the answer is yes. The neighbouring structures reinforce the picture: The $66.2k–$71.5k base holds about 1.51M BTC, but it is still building and has not yet faced a meaningful retest. The older $54.4k–$60.5k base has weakened to a 65% BSR, showing that much of its supply has already migrated elsewhere. The market is therefore not simply “holding support.” It is actively transferring ownership inside the largest observed cost-basis base. The bullish interpretation is that weak hands are being replaced without structural damage. The bearish invalidation is clear: if BTC begins leaving the $61.8k–$64.7k range faster than new buyers absorb it, BSR will deteriorate and rotation will become distribution. For now, the biggest base remains alive — and it is being tested in real time. Data by @ResearchBTCNow #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

What if a #Bitcoin bottom isn’t one candle—but a floor that keeps getting thicker? 💡1.61M BTC is now concentrated between $61.4K–$64.5K the largest cluster on the chart and 47% bigger than the next $65.8K–$70K cluster. For comparison: • $83.7K–$86.9K: 1.10M BTC • $65.8K–$70K: 859K BTC • $89.8K–$93K: 784K BTC Bitcoin’s largest ownership cluster is forming around the current spot price and not far above it. This range is becoming a good candidate for the market’s new foundation. #BTC #Crypto Data is powered by @ResearchBTCNow

#Bitcoin is back testing the June capitulation zone! In early June the distribution was following: 🟢 +$692k BTC absorbed between $58.9k–$72.8k 🔴 -$562k BTC distributed from $72.8k–$81.2k That was the capitulation transfer. Now the flow is smaller, but the signal is sharper: 🟢 +$265k BTC absorbed near $59.6k–$62.0k 🔴 -$232k BTC distributed from $62.0k–$89.8k The selling pressure cluster has migrated lower! This is not broad LTH capitulation... as the deep cost-basis supply still looks intact. The stress is coming from recent buyers, the same layer that absorbed the June flush. So this is the real test: Did June build support? Or did it just create the next supply layer? 💡Bear markets get heavy near the bottom exactly like this. #BTC #CryptoOnchain #Crypto 🔥Powered by Data from @ResearchBTCNow